No todo en el mundo es números, pues la realidad cualitativa, las acciones humanas, tienen un gran impacto en los números. La geopolítica es uno de esos temas cualitativos. ¿Qué pasa en materia geopolítica con China?
China
China es un país que ha tenido una evolución tan rápida política y económicamente que no ha habido oportunidad de tener un diseño totalmente pensado, y aún así ha sido pensado hasta cierto horizonte, pero hoy está cambiando la economía y también cambia en lo político (La transición de gobierno en China).
Las cooperativas de ahorro en China no parecen ser lugar seguro para invertir, pues aunque se dice que el gobierno supervisa, en realidad nadie supervisa. Se le da mucha libertad a los financieros, más o menos igual que en España. La diferencia es que en España se subsidia con rescates a los bancos.
Four privately-owned but government-supervised financial cooperatives in Guannan County were shut down a week ago after their managers fled, leaving 2,500 depositors in the lurch. A local official named Liang Gongzhu said the four cooperatives lent the money illegally to an entrepreneur surnamed Wang to earn high interest on the deposits. But Wang went bankrupt and the lenders could not return the money to their clients, China National Radio reported yesterday. According to Chinese law, rural financial cooperatives can only lend money to villagers to assist in agricultural activities. Local agricultural and commercial departments are supposed to supervise these private institutions. But local officials say the law does not specify which government agency is supposed to oversee the operation of rural financial cooperatives. Besides, local governments had little connection with the cooperatives and found it hard to supervise their business. - Villagers lose savings as cooperatives shut down
La sabiduría antigua china, el Tao Te Ching de Lao Tzu sobre gobernanza indica que a más subsidios, la gente se vuelve menos autosuficiente. Los banqueros españoles subsidiados ya no son autosuficientes. A los chinos nadie los subsidia, igual que Argentina no subsidia a los fondos buitre. Los argentinos se cansaron de subsidiar bancos hace 30 años.
The more subsidies you have, the less self-reliant people will be. - Tao Te Ching
En un país donde la escasez del comunismo empuja una actitud de ahorro, en la transición hacia el crédito se miran cosas muy extrañas. Un padre vendió a su propio bebé de 1 año para pagar deudas y gastarse el resto del dinero. Esta falta de humanidad me recuerda la falta de humanidad de los banqueros españoles, que no quieren la dación de pago, de modo que una familia española desempleada ve su casa expropiada por no poder pagar por una crisis que no causó, y encima le empujan una deuda, en lugar de que la casa sirva como pago.
Zhuo, a college graduate, had accumulated debts from his gold-related business. He confessed in court that he paid 51,000 yuan to his creditor and spent the rest of the money. His wife Xiaoyun reported him to the police in Yueqing, a county-level city in Zhejiang two months after the deal. The baby was eventually returned to his mother. - Debt-ridden father imprisoned for selling baby son
El fondo es el mismo, pero su manifestación es algo distinta. En materia de inversiones se han abierto un poco.
China's insurance regulator has widened the overseas investment scope of domestic insurance companies and expanded the categories of assets they can invest in, to boost their investment returns amid the sluggish stock market. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission said on Monday it had loosened the restriction limiting mainland insurers to invest only in Hong Kong, to 45 countries and regions, including 25 developed economies and 20 developing economies such as Brazil and India. Meanwhile, approved asset categories have also been expanded from equities and bonds to real estate, currency products and non-bond fixed-income products. - More investment options for insurers
Igual que los americanos con Hollywood, e India con Bollywood, China piensa expandir su industria cultural a ultramar (Peking Opera, now fully translated in English).
China vs EUA
En occidente se habla de China como violadores de derechos humanos, cuando también hay otros los países que hacen detenciones ilegales y mantienen campos de concentración modernos. Tanto en China como en EUA las noticias sobre derechos humanos en sus territorios son escasas y de escasa cobertura.
A Tibetan villager died after setting himself ablaze near a monastery in northwest China's Gansu Province on Tuesday, a provincial government source said. The self-immolation happened near Labrang Monastery in Xiahe County, located in the Tibetan autonomous prefecture of Gannan, at 3:30 p.m. Tuesday, the source said. The man was identified as a 58-year-old villager from Jiujia township. The local government is handling the incident. - Tibetan villager self-immolates in NW China
Igual que en los tiempos post crisis de 1929 y antes de la segunda guerra mundial, hay importantes movimientos causados por las rivalidades geopolíticas. En particular las relaciones EUA y China han sido de amor y odio, y con Japón también. Nadie es "el chico bueno" ni "el heroe de la película" en geopolítica. En occidente la opinión empuja comentarios anti-China. En China sucede en la otra vía.
this title is misleading, because what really gets bolstered here is western hegemony 'bolstering the fear of rising china', conveniently with the USA-japan treaty deal which allowed japan to so audaciously 'buy' the diaoyu islands. with the bolstering of fear of china come the bolstering of western hegemony's military industrial complex........ sell more weapons to guard against western hegemony's intended political enemies. western hegemony's 'free press' news have been busy promoting anti china trade and calls to stop buying chinese made products, it should be time that people of china apply the same purchasing decisions against usa branded cars as they've had on japanese cars.
don't be surprised my fellow chinese, if agents within the usa secretly provide nuclear WMD to japan as they have done for israel. usa don't care about east asia, except that it cannot exceed western hegemony, for the democracy of china+korea+japan multilateral success will be deemed as failure for american 'bipartisan democracy' and those judeo christian fundamentalists cannot lose face like that. prepare for more anti china fear mongering to drive western hegemony's military industrial complex!
USA first flame the issue then come in as the peacemaker good guy,what a sham it is. Never trust USA. Leopard never change its spot.Just look at all the double talking going on. White man speak with fork tongue!!!!Nothing changed in US 300 yrs history. Hyenas will always remain hyenas.
Las recriminaciones entre EUA y China han sido mutuas, primero cuando se acusaba a China de "manipular la moneda", una movida de imagen pública para distraer a los americanos de la crisis reinante. Hoy las recriminaciones van en otra dirección:
Chinese Foreign Ministry slammed the U.S. intelligence agency's accusations of hacking by Chinese firms on Wednesday, arguing that China is a victim to cyber crime. - China slams US hacking accusation
El informe preliminar de la comisión intensifica las advertencias de los oficiales estadounidenses en el sentido de que los ataques cibernéticos representan riesgos cada vez mayores para los militares y para industrias críticas como las empresas de servicios de electricidad, tuberías de distribución y telecomunicaciones. (...) La mayor parte de la actividad cibernética en China durante el último año “se apoyó en técnicas básicas y directas” como ataques de “día cero” que aprovechan la vulnerabilidad del software, para la cual las víctimas no disponen de solución ni de ajuste inmediatos, y el uso de certificados digitales robados para hacer que el malware parezca legítimo, según el borrador. - Amenaza China en ciberespacio
También hay reclamos contra la estatal petrolera china por parte de americanos.
As the repercussions of the June 2011 Bohai Bay oil spill still linger, China's state-owned oil company CNOOC faces a new headache after it was sued by its U.S. investors over its misleading statements issued during the spill. China's largest offshore oil company said in an announcement posted on its website Tuesday evening that it received notice of the class action suit filed by its U.S. investor Sam Sinay, individually and on behalf of all others similarly situated, in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The plaintiffs accused CNOOC of failing to disclose June 2011's Bohai Bay oil spill in a timely manner and also releasing false and misleading information about its performance and financials. - CNOOC faces lawsuit in US over spill disclosure
Y más recientemente una disputa de los vecinos de China por la impresión de pasaportes.
The Philippines and Vietnam condemned Chinese passports containing a map of China's disputed maritime claims on Thursday, branding the new design a violation of their sovereignty. - China angers neighbors with sea claims on new passports
Sin embargo las rivalidades no se limitan a lo monetario o al Internet o al petróleo. Antes de la segunda guerra mundial, ya existía una pujante rivalidad armamentista entre EUA, Japón y Gran Bretaña. Los japoneses maximizaron el poder de fuego por tonelada dentro de los límites que le imponían las otras potencias que no querían ser igualadas en poder. La flota japonesa fue muy efectiva pero esto empezó a cambiar cuando los americanos inventaron el radar de superficie, y además los americanos decodificaban los mensajes que transmitían los japoneses.
Hoy la rivalidad naval es con China. Mientras los americanos crean su flota bajo el marketing de proteger las rutas de comercio marítimo, China lo hace para proteger los recursos marinos. Esta idea no es tan descabellada considerando la importancia del mar en la economía y dieta de los chinos, y el hecho de que para 2050 puede dejar de haber peces en el mar, dada la tasa de explotación de recursos marinos.
Luo said that President Hu Jintao's report to the Congress highlights the development of marine economy and the protection of marine resources. "President Hu's report puts forward the theory of building the country into a marine strong power for the first time. That's no doubt significant and good news for Hainan, which enjoys special favors of nature. The province has a bounden duty to do the job well," Luo said. - Hainan's marine economy flourishes
China's newly proposed strategy to build a "maritime power" will not lead to marine hegemony, analysts said as the country is engaged in heated discussion of the leadership's call to develop the marine economy. In building up maritime power, the biggest challenges lie in protecting the ecology while safeguarding rights, said Liu. - Maritime power to protect ecology
Con el tema de Siria ha renacido la guerra fría sin que se diga oficialmente. EUA apoya a los rebeldes, y Rusia y China no. Tal como sucedía en la primera guerra fría, donde se armaban marchas y espectáculos aéreos con fines de disuasión, los chinos han montado su propio espectáculo.
The 2012 Airshow China is giving military watchers a rare chance to see the latest weapons up close. China has displayed a complete set of defensive weapons systems ranging from medium and long range missiles to radar controlled, high speed guns. Our correspondent Yin Hang reports from the southern city of Zhuhai. China's military defense systems are a highlight at this year's Airshow China. The FD-2000 self-defense surface to air missiles and the WJ 600 military drone, and the mysterious but powerful WJ-10 and WJ 19 attack helicopters have grabbed the audiences' attention. But experts say that's just the tip of the iceberg. The FL3000N behind me is a new generation ship self-defense missile network. It can intercept sub-sonic and super-sonic anti-ship missiles that could be used on various kinds of ships. - China showcases weapon systems at airshow
Por su parte EUA está haciendo también alarde de su poderío con su nuevo caza F-35.
The U.S. Marine Corps on Tuesday established its first operational squadron of F-35 fighter jets at an air station in Yuma, Arizona, a move that officials said showed progress on the Pentagon's biggest and most scrutinized weapons program. Three F-35B fighters built by Lockheed Martin Corp have already arrived at the base, with 13 more to come over the next year. The service has also spent about half a billion dollars to build new hangars for the planes, a high-end flight simulator for training pilots, and maintenance facilities, according to Captain Staci Reidinger, a spokeswoman for the base. - Marines establish first operational squad of F-35 fighters
En la parte vehicular terrestre ya están mejorando sus estándares.
China is seeking to improve its automotive industry's recall system, releasing national regulations outlining heavy financial penalties intended to improve management, supervision and safety in the sector. The new regulations were released by the State Council on Tuesday and included tire makers in the recall system for the first time. The amended Administrative Regulations on Defective Automotive Product Recalls have been compiled to address rising concerns about the quality of vehicles, and will be effective from Jan 1, the State Council said. - Recall system to impose heavy fines
China ya tiene su propio helicóptero no tripulado.
The largest unmanned helicopter ever manufactured by China is now in service in east China's Shandong province, the provincial land and resources department said Thursday. The mid-sized helicopter has passed all required flight tests and is fully operational, the department said. The helicopter, capable of flying as high as 3,000 meters at a top speed of 161 km per hour with a payload of 80 kg, can be controlled from a maximum distance of 150 km or programmed to fly automatically, according to Cheng Shenzong, board chairman of Weifang Tianxiang Aerospace Industry Co., Ltd., a company that helped develop the aircraft. The helicopter can be used to conduct geological surveys, as well as aid in emergency rescue operations, aerial photography and forest fire prevention, Cheng said. - China's largest unmanned helicopter goes into service
Y también su propio caza invisible al radar, aunque se dice que no tienen aún un caza de alto desempeño, debido a falta de inversión en motores.
China successfully tested its second stealth fighter on Oct.31, meaning it has become the second country next to the U.S. to develop two 5th generation stealth fighters, according to Chinese newspaper Global Times. The fighter is expected to serve on China's aircraft carrier. Xiong Wei, a Chinese military expert, was quoted by the newspaper saying that China's aircraft carrier needs an advanced carrier-based aircraft designed specifically for sea-based operations. He said the J-31 has the potential of operating on aircraft carriers, judging from its enhanced double-wheel nose landing gear and two big tail wings, which fit the requirements of being a carrier-based aircraft. - China's newest stealth fighter takes test flight
En 2010 EUA gastaba el 46% del gasto militar del planeta, y China le seguía con un distante 6%. Con la crisis americana, mantener el gasto militar no es cosa fácil y empresas como Boeing que son proveedoras del gobierno de EUA ya han empezado a hacer recortes drásticos (Boeing announces defense division restructuring). Parece que Boeing no está haciendo lo suficiente para garantizar la lealtad de sus empleados (Boeing union moves closer to strike as contracts near expiration). Entretanto el partido comunista está en un proceso de sucesión (China's leadership challenge in new era: douse "inequality volcano").
China vs Japón
En China, aquellos que tenían parientes que murieron en la masacre de Nanking perpetrada por los japoneses, o que tuvieron parientes prisioneros de guerra, odian a los japoneses. A los japoneses no se les dejó articular un ejército tras la segunda guerra mundial, y para su defensa dependerían de las fuerzas de EUA, algo que para algunos japoneses es visto como una continuación velada de la ocupación americana tras lanzar la bomba atómica que tiene un significado similar al de Nanking para los japoneses, y para algunos chinos significa que el gobierno japonés es un estado satélite de EUA, y para los americanos ellos son una fuerza protectora que viene a defenderles contra las potenciales agresiones de China.
Aunque pareciera que, por ser aliados, Japón y EUA tienen buenas relaciones, las disputas por la base militar americana han sido objeto de controversia.
Los habitantes de Okinawa se han preocupado por la contaminación de aguas y tierra causada por la base.
- 1981. El teniente Kris Roberts dijo al Japan Times que su base tenía depósitos de agente naranja con filtraciones.
- 1995. Militares americanos violan a una niña de 12 años.
- 1996. Se decide que la base de Futenma sea movida a la bahía Henoko donde vive el dugong, una especia en peligro de extinción. En un referendum el 80% de los residentes de Nago vota en contra.
- 2004. Un helicóptero CH-53D se estrella contra la Universida Internacional de Okinawa. Esto disparó las preocupaciones por la seguridad aérea y la contaminación del aire.
Recientemente surgen problemas como los siguientes:
JAPAN'S alliance with the US is widely viewed as a crucial counterweight to China's hegemonic ambitions, which pose significant threats to Asian security. But, although the US and Japan are conducting joint naval exercises in the East China Sea in order to signal to China that it should tone down its actions over the disputed Senkaku Islands, all is not well with the alliance. Controversy over the deployment by the US Marines of 12 tilt-rotor V-22 Osprey aircraft to the Futenma Air Base on Okinawa has contributed to the alliance's decay. The hybrid aircraft which combine a helicopter's ability to take off and land vertically with the range, loading capacity, fuel efficiency, and speed of a turboprop airplane are instrumental to deter possible Chinese or North Korean aggression in the area. Yet the plans have fueled the most persistent anti-American protests on Okinawa in decades, owing to safety concerns. Indeed, the aircraft's accident-plagued record includes six fatalities since 2007 and two crashes this year. Given that Futenma is located in a densely-populated urban area that includes more than 100 schools, hospitals, and shops, critics contend that the Osprey would endanger the lives of thousands of island residents. - US Osprey deployment hurts Okinawans
The U.S. airman who is alleged to have struck a teenage boy in the face after breaking into his home while intoxicated earlier this month apologized to the victim for the trauma he caused, according to an official in the Okinawa village where the incident took place. - U.S. Airman Apologizes to Okinawa Boy in Assault Case
Tensions in the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa are running high after a spate of incidents involving US servicemen. Residents also say their health is jeopardized by unbearable noise, amid safety fears about aircraft. Nearly 1,200 civilians living near the United States Marines Corps' Futenma Air Station, one of the largest US military facilities on the strategically important Japanese island of Okinawa, filed a law suit demanding in compensation for years of unrelenting aircraft noise. - Okinawans struggle with US military presence
U.S. troops in Okinawa will now be on curfew after the arrest of two U.S. sailors accused of raping a local woman, the commander of U.S. forces in Japan said Friday. The curfew restricts military personnel to the base, a personal home or hotel between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. Police in Okinawa identified the detained sailors as U.S. Navy Seaman Christopher Daniel Browning and Petty Officer Skyler Dozierwalker of Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth in Texas. The two men, both 23, are alleged to have raped a Japanese woman early Tuesday, leaving her with a neck injury, police said. They were taken into custody later that day. The incident has prompted a women's group in Okinawa to call for more restrictions on what U.S. military personnel can do when off-base. The issue of violent crimes, especially rapes, by U.S. troops in Japan has divided the two countries for decades. It came to a peak in 1995 when a U.S. sailor and two U.S. Marines were convicted of raping a 12-year-old girl. Tens of thousands of Okinawans took to the streets at the time demanding that the United States leave the island south of Japan's main islands. - U.S. troops in Okinawa on curfew after arrests in rape case
Japón atraviesa una crisis que se combina con las disputas. Uno de los más grandes proveedores de empleo tiene que hacer recortes.
Panasonic Corp, Japan's third-biggest employer, cut almost 39,000 jobs in the past year, and its chief financial officer said the TV maker doesn't plan another round of cuts. Investors say it has to. Even after reducing its workforce by about 11 percent - almost double the reductions at Sony Corp and Sharp Corp combined - Panasonic will lose 765 billion yen (US$9.6 billion) in the year ending in March, the company said yesterday. The potential second-highest loss in its history prompted Panasonic to skip a dividend for the first time since 1950 because of an "urgent need" to improve its financial position. - Panasonic urged to slash further
Sony y Panasonic han visto sus deudas ser degradadas a la categoría de "basura".
Ratings agency Fitch downgraded the debt ratings of Japan's Sony Corp and Panasonic Corp to "junk" status citing weakness in their consumer electronics and TV operations, further diminishing the luster of the once-great Japanese brands. - Fitch cuts Sony, Panasonic debt ratings to "junk" status
¿Qué pasará con el empleo en Japón?
Epílogo
La historia no deja de tener algo de ironía, pues en los años 1930 China estaba llena de pobres y en guerra, tenía un gran déficit, mientras que EUA era la potencia industrial. Hoy China es la potencia industrial, y EUA está en guerra.
Resulta irónico que Japón en los 1930 era la potencia dominante en Asia. Tenían cerca de 100 años de hacer la guerra sin que nadie pudiera desafiarles, sin que nadie estuviera a la altura de su poderío. Querían construir su orden mundial con la "Gran esfera de coprosperidad de Asia" donde los habitantes de territorios ocupados eran tratados como ciudadanos de segunda. Hoy son territorio ocupado con una base extranjera de la cual dependen para su defensa.
El problema de China de cara al peligro de contracción que corre el mercado global es que su PIB no va a poder seguir creciendo como antes, mientras que para Japón su problema es una recesión con perspectivas de más recesión.
Igual que en los años posteriores a la crisis de 1929, donde se construyó un poderío militar y había rivalidad militar, ahora parece que tenemos un renacimiento de la guerra fría, que no ha sido declarada formalmente, pero que existe. Tras la crisis de 2008 los otrora países desarrollados han dejado de serlo, no sólo por su retroceso económico, sino por sus medidas ideológicas destinadas a destruir todo aquello que en el pasado les diferenció de los países tercermundistas.
