Re: Farmas USA
SGYP
Del grupo de activistas
The next 30 days are crucial. It's all about the insurance.
I won't predict where we go from here but instead, I will tell you what will determine the future of the company. For those of you who read my latest Seeking Alpha article on Synergy know that the company is doing all they can to negotiate early access to 2019 formulary. This means that any insurance wins could start being effective as early as August. If they are aggressive enough they could now price Linzess out of the market and that could have been the plan all along for going alone.
For example, Gilead was priced out for 2 years in a row of the Express Scripts
preferred formulary even though they had a significant headstart on their Hepatitis C drug. Since Synergy is a lot smaller they can afford to lower their costs a whole lot more vs. the Ironwood/Allergan partnership. 100% of a $300 price vs a 50% of a $450 price of Linzess with more recurring expenses on DTC and a salesforce 4x bigger would be a much bigger profit maker for Synergy Pharmaceuticals.
So as investors in the company we should only focus on insurance wins or losses. A win on the preferred formulary of Express Scripts is almost as good as a partnership. And a win on the preferred formulary with the exclusion of Linzess would be even better than a partnership.
Partnerships: Again about insurance
Some possible partnerships might be contingent on whether or not Synergy is able to move up on the insurance ladder. Think about the waiver for August 28 to access the additional funds of the loan. Coincidence? I don't think so.
The company brought up an interesting thought. A possible partnership with a company who was 2 years away from launching their own products for GI. I have a possible name for you: Celgene. Ozanimod is about 3 years away from launching for Chron's disease and 1.5 years for Ulcerative Colitis. They will need to build a salesforce and it so happens that Synergy has one.
Celgene has a background on oncology and could be an excellent partner for the colon cancer research of Dolcanatide.
So it's possible that in order for Celgene to establish a partnership with Trulance certain insurance wins need to happen before any cash is advanced. (Here the comments about in-licensing, a product 2-3 years away, a merger, etc. start to make sense.)
Take Courage
We will very soon know whether Troy is an incompetent CEO or a mastermind controlling every chase move. I am at least holding my shares until August 28th before even considering changing my strategy.
Next week we will probably start getting news on insurance. So hang on tight. We have come long ways and this is not the time to quit.
Again please start thinking about submitting YOUR VERY OWN PROPOSAL. You have to notify the company 90 days at least before the next annual meeting. (Remember we already have someone willing to serve on the board of directors amongst our group and who has excellent credentials.)
I believe even under current conditions shares of Synergy should be trading at least at $3.50. From now until August 9th we are entering a time period where any day significant news can hit the market. Depending on how significant they are, the shares could rally significantly.
I want everyone to resist the urge to sell immediately. 25% of the float was sold short. So any unexpected positive news is gonna force the shorts to cover their positions at significantly higher prices. So selling your shares fast and cheap is only gonna help the shorts cover their positions. Wait until they get desperate and then sell.
«Después de nada, o después de todo/ supe que todo no era más que nada.»
