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Dealing with Drawdowns
In the almost 15 years I have been advising the Business Owner Fund, this is the third time that there has been a large drawdown in the price of the fund. It happens.
I am conscious though that there is a difference between knowing something happens and experiencing it. In theory, we should be rejoicing at such a rich buying opportunity. In practice, it hurts.
I am also conscious that it is the first time the fund has experienced such a large drawdown whilst equity markets overall have been comparatively benign (though there was no shortage of bad, in fact, terrible news in the quarter).
I do not provide commentary on a single quarter’s performance for the simple reason that I believe it is random. Providing ex-post explanations for price movements implies a predictability to stock prices that simply does not exist.
The share prices of companies are driven in the long run by their earnings power. As a rule, a single quarter rarely provides much in the way of insight into a company’s long-term earnings power – although this does not stop analysts from extrapolating recent trends to draw conclusions about it. The only exception to this rule is that a company can, of course, unravel in a quarter, but I am happy to report none of our companies suffered any kind of mortal setback in the quarter – not even close.
I am nevertheless happy to jump on the phone to catch up and discuss anything which is on your mind. It is part of my mission that my investors have not just a good financial experience but also a good emotional one. I can imagine that for some of you, the need to talk is greater now than during more normal periods. Feel free to shoot me an email to schedule a call, or just call my cell.