Son 35 páginas de explciacónes sobre porque pasar el TP de 30 a 34, pero aquí os dejo el resumen y el modelo
Para mi su modelo es demasiado conservador y no incluye el metro de lima, con lo cual esperar a 38 parece lo más sensato
Core activities set to bottom out during 2014 and resume
underlying growth trend in 2015, in part because ACS is likely
to be a key beneficiary of the Mexican energy reform
Second re-rating ahead at Hochtief if margin improvement and
cash flow discipline play out – especially at Leighton
We reiterate our Overweight, target price EUR34 from EUR30
Core activities to bottom out in 2014; ensuing improvements to become fully effective in
2015: based on FY2013 results we believe ACS’s core activities are close to bottom and we
expect underlying operations to start improving meaningfully in 2014, a trend that should
become fully effective in 2015 – the first year since 2009 to see sales growth and margin
expansion. We believe this should allow ACS to trade at the sector-average multiple again.
ACS benefiting from Mexico’s energy reform: At end-2013 Mexico passed a bold energy
reform that we and industry experts expect to attract significant investment and expertise. In
all, these experts expect investments in Mexico’s oil & gas industry to roughly double in the
coming years. We consider ACS to be excellently positioned to grow in tandem with the
investment boom in Mexico which could enhance the growth prospects of the Industrial
Services segment (we estimate a 4ppt impact on the division’s 2015-18 CAGR impact, all else
being equal) possibly even causing it to trade at a premium to the sector.
Second re-rating ahead at Hochtief: We recently upgraded our Hochtief target price from
EUR67 to EUR80, reiterating our OW rating. Although Hochtief’s transformation into a pureplay
contractor will soon be complete and is largely priced in, we believe the prospects of
margin improvement and cash flow discipline – especially at Leighton – could prompt another
round of re-rating for Hochtief shares. In addition, investors should take a positive view of
strong EPS accretion (up to EUR1.0 per Hochtief share on HSBC’s FY2016 estimates) from
the targeted acquisition of Leighton shares from minorities.
We reiterate our Overweight rating with a new target price of EUR34 (previously
EUR30): In essence, ACS’s re-rating story should continue to play out as earnings growth
prospects normalise in line with the sector – or possibly slightly above in the case of Industrial
Services, whose growth prospects could be boosted by Mexico’s energy reform. In addition,
ACS is a play on a further Hochtief share price increase, driven largely by a re-rating in
response to margin improvement and cash flow discipline at Leighton, where Hochtief has
recently taken more decisive action to increase its influence on the business and strategy.
ACS (ACS SM)