MRTX
La he llevado y vendido, no la sigo tan de cerca como otras. No he mirado catalizadores ni qué tiene cerca, parece bastante cara en principio.
Esto es lo que tengo de b2k, que la tiene en su top 10 ideas:
9. MRTX - They have a multikinase inhibitor in Sitravatinib. I wasn't a big fan of this drug due to its low overall response rate in the low 22% range. It wasn't until I discovered that this drug can rescue patients who have become resistant to checkpoint inhibitors. That is a very big deal. The drug is in development for multiple indications in combination with checkpoint inhibitors. This includes NSCLC, Head & Neck Cancer, Bladder and Renal Cancers to name a few. It could be worth up to about $800 million if all indications work out. They also have an early stage KRAS inhibitor with MRTX-849. This drug could offer big potential in KRAS G12C mutant cancers around NSCLC and CRC. This could be worth $1 billion or more. So far the early data is showing promise. They also have another early KRAS drug for targeting G12D mutations.
Su último PT es de $97.84.
05/2020
MRTX in depth updated
Management
I think Charles Baum has been an outstanding CEO. He has built one of the hottest biotech companies in the market right now. He speaks well and seems to know the science. I just wish they would present more at the conferences. That is my biggest issue with them. They don't engage enough with the investors.
The Pipeline
Sitravatinib: @ $150,000 price
NSCLC (Non Small Cell Lung Cancer): (Phase 3)
There are 228,000 NSCLC patient in the US each year
PD-1 affects about 25% = 57,000
More than 50% of PD-1 patients develop resistance = 28,500
Sitravatinib showed 27% ORR in NSCLC in combo with Nivo = $855 million
Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma: (Phase 2)
Bladder cancer effects 80,470 patients each year
Up to 20% of bladder cancers are Urothelial Cancer = 16,094
Up to 50% of those are metastatic = 8,047
More than 50% of PD-1 patients develop resistance = 4,023
Sitravatinib showed 27% ORR In mUC in combo with Nivo = $162 million
Clear Renal Cell Carcinoma: (Phase 2)
Renal Cell Carcinoma affects 32,000 each year in the US
Up to 75% of RCC is clear RCC = 24,000
More than 50% of PD-1 patients develop resistance = 12,000
Sitravatinib showed ? (25% guess) ORR in RCC = $450 million guess
Head & Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: (Phase 2)
Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma affects up to 34,000 patients in the US each year
Up to 95% of patients with Oral SCC express PD-1 = 32,300
More than 50% of PD-1 patients develop resistance = 17,000
Sitravatinib showed ? (25% guess) ORR in Oral SCC = $605 million
MRTX-849: @ $150,000 price
NSCLC (Non Small Cell Lung Cancer): (Phase 2)
KRAS G12C mutation accounts for 14% of all NSCLC = 14,000
MRTX-849 showed initial 50% ORR = $1 Billion
Colorectal Cancer: (Phase 2)
KRAS G12C mutation accounts for 5% of Colorectal Cancer = 5,000
MRTX-849 showed initial 25% ORR = $187 Million
Pancreatic Cancer: (Phase 2)
Estimated that about 2,000 with KRAS G12C in US
MRTX-849 showed ? ORR = $75 million
KRAS G12D: @ $150,000 price (Preclinical)
36% of Pancreatic = 20,000 @ 25% market share = $750 million
12% of Colorectal Cancer = 11,400 @ 25% market share = $427 million
6% of Endrometrial Cancer = 3,600 @ 25% market share = $135 million
4% of NSCLC = 9,120 @ 25% market share = $342 million
Total potential = $1.654 billion
Partners
BeiGene:
They have a partnership with BeiGene for Sitravatinib in China, Australia, and New Zealand. They can earn up to $123 million in milestones and unspecified royalties.
Pfizer:
They have a license from Array for their KRAS science. They are required to pay up to $337 million in milestones. They also pay royalties on these products from high single digits to mid teens
Valuation
Sitravatinib in NSCLC - $855 million * 2 for phase 2 = $1.71 billion value
Sitravatinib in mUC - $162 million * 1 for phase 1 = $162 million value
Sitravatinib in RCC - $450 million * 1 for phase 1 = $450 million value
Sitravatinib in Oral SCC - $605 million *1 for phase 1 = $605 million value
MRTX-849 in NSCLC - $1 billion * .5 for early phase 1 = $500 million value
MRTX-849 in CRC - $187 million * .5 for early phase 1 = $93.5 million value
MRTX-849 in Pancreatic - $75 million * 10% for early = $7.5 million value
KRAS G12D - $1.654 billion * 10% for preclinical = $165.4 million value
Cash = $695 million
Total Value = $4.388 billion @ 43,642,434 Shares Outstanding = $100.54
MRTX lowered to 3.91 stars
Mostly because its fairly valued now. I raised my valuation as I honed in the numbers more.
First Recommended: April 25, 2019 @ $62.50
1. Management - Charles Baum - 4.8 Stars
- Integrity - 5 Stars
- Communicator - 4 Stars
- Financial Manager - 5 Stars
- Regulatory Affairs - 5 Stars
- Good Decision Making - 5 Stars
2. Science - 3.75 Stars
- Breakthrough Therapies - 3 Stars (No Breakthrough Therapies)
- Diversified Pipeline - 3 Stars (3 drugs)
- Stage of Development - 4 Stars (Phase 3)
- Clinical Success - 5 Stars (No failure)
3. Potential: 5 stars (+766% over 12 years = 63% annual)
Sitravatinib in NSCLC - $855 million
Sitravatinib in Urothelial Carcinoma - $162 million
Sitravatinib in RCC - $450 million
Sitravatinib in Oral SCC - $605 million
MRTX849 in NSCLC - $1 billion
MRTX849 in CRC - $187 million
MRTX849 in Pancreatic - $75 million
KRAS G12C - $1.654 billion
Total Peak Sales = $4.988 billion * 8 P/S = $39.9 billion Market Cap peak
@ 43,642,434 Shares Outstanding = $914.24
4. Valuation – 3 Stars (Fair Value)
Sitravatinib in NSCLC - $855 million * 2 for phase 2 = $1.71 billion value
Sitravatinib in mUC - $162 million * 1 for phase 1 = $162 million value
Sitravatinib in RCC - $450 million * 1 for phase 1 = $450 million value
Sitravatinib in Oral SCC - $605 million *1 for phase 1 = $605 million value
MRTX-849 in NSCLC - $1 billion * .5 for early phase 1 = $500 million value
MRTX-849 in CRC - $187 million * .5 for early phase 1 = $93.5 million value
MRTX-849 in Pancreatic - $75 million * 10% for early = $7.5 million value
KRAS G12D - $1.654 billion * 10% for preclinical = $165.4 million value
Cash = $695 million
Total Value = $4.388 billion @ 43,642,434 Shares Outstanding = $100.54
5. Financials: 3 stars (Not Profitable Yet, Needs Secondary)
Cash = $695 million
Cash Burn = $348 million per year
Less than 2 years cash
Total Ranking: 3.91 Stars
06/2020
MRTX More risky then initially thought
This company is typically a very quiet company. They don't do a lot of public appearances. Sometimes I go months between their new releases or presentations. They do put out a slide deck on their IR website at the beginning of each month. Often good information in it.
They recently presented some posters updating Sitravtinib at ASCO. This program is in a very long phase 3 trial in combination with Nivo for cancers that develop PD-1 resistance. This drug helps break that resistance in about 25% of those patients. Those trials don't read out till year end 2021. This program has been put on the back burner since its so long of a trial. They have focused on the KRAS drugs in the mean time.
I looked over the ASCO data for Sitravatinib. The data is impressive. I was looking at the slide on this program. There is a lot side effects. I guess that is to be expected with a multi kinase inhibitor. I just got the feeling from the data I saw that this might be a bit more toxic and not as durable as I first thought. Only time will tell.
Clearly MRTX has become all about the KRAS indication. This is still very early stage for a company with such a lofty valuation. I did my valuation model with a value of around $100. I just feel its more risky then I have been treating it. This is not up there with BPMC and DCPH as for clinical development. Yes it is in phase 3, but that is over a year away from a read out with no guarantees. They also have a lot riding on their development of the KRAS drugs which only have phase 1 data with a few patients.
The stock seems to be on a good run from the pandemic lows. It could even challenge its old high around $128. I think I would look to fade my shares I bought at the lows up near $120 to $125 area.
También aparece en la lista de empresas que recomienda en agosto del XBI:
Cherry Picking the XBI (The Well Know List)
There are several names in the XBI that we all know well. Many of them I own. All the names on this list I would not fear putting my own money into. They are the best known companies we all know very well. This is one of the best places to start when you want to pick a new company. Just make sure you do your own DD to ensure you like the companies as well.
1. NVAX
2. ARWR
3. FOLD
4. MRNA
5. MRTX
6. EDIT
7. BPMC
8. FATE
9. IOVA
10. MNTA
11. ALLO
12. DCPH
13. SGMO
14. KRTX
15. TPTX
16. DRNA
17. MGNX
