Farmas USA

OT: Tax State

Os comento un tema que se está hablando por CZD. Copio un mensaje del paisano ruindog que lo resume muy bien:

"Afecta a los no residentes de EEUU que al fallecer tengan acciones de ese país (US based assets) por importe superior a 60k$.

En teoría TODOS los brokers deberían retener los valores del fallecido hasta que los herederos hagan cuentas con el IRS pero en la práctica solo son los brokers de EEUU (Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab…) los que lo exigen."

Es decir, que cuando alguien que tiene acciones americanas en un broker palma, no se pueden recuperar los activos por los herederos hasta que la hacienda americana se cobra el impuesto de sucesiones. Y es un pastizal, un rango que es entre 20-30% o así de lo que supere $60k en acciones de empresas estadounidenses.

España no tiene convenio con USA en este particular. En teoría todos los brokers deberían hacerlo, pero entiendo que los ING, Bankinter de la vida no pasan esta información al fisco americano ni hacen esto (aunque deberían).

Por los que tenéis bastante en Interactive Brokers que seáis conscientes del tema.

https://foro.cazadividendos.com/t/us-estate-tax/

OT: Impuesto irlandés en IBIE

Los que tengáis cuenta en Interactive Brokers Irlanda, seguro que os ha llegado un mensaje diciendo que hay un impuesto (del 20%) sobre el interés que se cobra (por ejemplo por la liquidez que se tiene en cuenta).

Hay convenio con Irlanda y para que no te lo cobren hay que rellenar un formulario, que lo selle hacienda y enviárselo. La gente está teniendo problemas para que se lo sellen y se ha enviado un certificado digital que se puede obtener en la web de la AEAT. IB está haciendo la consulta a ver si lo aceptan para no cobrar ese impuesto.

Semana regulera, el XBI se ha mantenido pero mi cartera no ha hecho más que bajar. A lo tonto de estar casi a la par en menos de un mes lo hace un -9% peor...

He comprado bastante. IPSC, GOSS, KYMR, MTEM, GMDA, PIRS, RLAY, EXAI, DNA, FATE, CDXS, RXRX, BPMC, CRBU. Intentando hacer posición en las que más me interesan y promierdar en otras esperando algún rebote bueno. A ver si le meten otro meneo bueno y cargo más.

Nueva posición VRNA, buenos resultados, me pareció barata, compré y siguió subiendo. Clara candidata a BO al año que viene pero no está tan barata.

MDGL la solté y siguió subiendo bastante. Hay polémica con los resultados porque no está claro si lo que comunicaron es lo necesario para aprobación FDA o no. Hay varias que he vendido muy pronto y han subido luego bastante. CABA es el epítome, de cuando comenté que era una locura que estaba sobre $0.6 a tocar casi $10 esta semana (las vendí sobre $2 o así).

Cartera actualizada:

bueno señoras, señores y señeres ...

que pasen Uds una buena noche y , sobre todo, que Santa nos traiga algo de alegria bursatil para el proximo año ...

yo promedie fuerte en Fate a 11 dolares a ver si espabila 
FATE

Cortesía de buysidebio:

Bio Catalysts for 2023 sorted best cash position to worst
Crazy stat: 1yr return
Companies with catalyst <2yr cash: -50%
Companies with catalyst >2yr cash: -16%

63% of companies have sub 2yr cash

Since 2015, 5% of all datapoints yielded 1 day returns>50%. Lots of dilution soon.

The Zombie Company List:
- List of names that have 15% over market cap in cash
- Also have 2 years or greater of cash.

vale, hoy no hay bolsa ... 

He actualizado los PT de b2k que puso el otro día. Cuando ponga la cartera se verán ahí reflejados.

In search of value $FATE:

A look at the valuation of $FATE.

Cash = $519 million

They have 4 big franchises of focus around Lymphoma, Multiple Myeloma and Solid tumors. They have multiple drugs for each of these franchises so I am going to value the franchises and not each drug.
Multiple Myeloma is a good size indication, but its extremely competitive. I would give it $500 million in revenues unless the data looks like best in class. This is still in early phase 1 and preclinical
*1 for starting phase 1
$50 million value

Lymphoma is another good sized indication with a ton of competition. I would only give this $500 million in revenues unless they get some best in class data. This has phase 1 data.
*1 for phase 1 data
$500 million value

AML is another decent sized indication. Its another very competitive space. I would think it could do at least $250 million in sales.
*1 for phase 1 data
$250 million value

The last major franchise is solid tumors. This is a $50 billion market. I would think they could get $3 billion in sales with multiple products if some of them work out. This is a preclinical program.
*.1 for preclinical
$300 million value

They have partnerships with Ono and Janssen. Between these 2 partnerships, they are entitled to about $2 billion in biobucks across multiple program. Since only 10% of the science works out, I would value them at $200 million.

All in , this gets us to $1.819 billion in value. They have about 97.2 million shares outstanding. This comes to $18.71. That makes this company about fairly valued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595055158626492427?s=20&t=CRvfslfsAIu_yv0gkSUfaw

In search of value $CRBU

A look at the valuation of $CRBU.

Cash = $326 million

This first program has some best in class data so far in CD19 cancers. This indication could do about $500 million a year.
*.5 for some phase 1 data
= $250 million value

Their second program is for BCMA in Multiple Myeloma. I think this could also do $500 million a year in sales.
*.1 for preclinical
= $50 million value

All in, I get to $626 million valuation. They have about 61 million shares outstanding. That comes to $10.26 which makes it about -13% under valued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595426060560203776?s=20&t=OVtD985BQH0-rnvfLrtVAw

In search of value $IPSC:

A look at the valuation of $IPSC.

They have $395 million cash

CNTY-101 is for CD19. This could be worth $500 million in sales if the data works out.
*.1 for starting phase 1
=$50 million value

I think their EFGR CAR-NK could do upward of $250 million in sales.
*.1 for preclinical
$25 million value

They have an early Multiple Myeloma therapy in works which could be worth $500 million or more.
*.1 for preclinic
$50 million value

Then they just announced Nectin-4 for solid tumors. I find this one interesting as it could be the first $1 billion or more drug should it work out well.
*.1 for preclinic
$100 million value

Their BMS deal has upward of $3 billion in biobucks across all the programs they are working on. I will adjust that to the 10% success rate. That is $300 million in value.

All in that is $920 million value. They have about 59 million shares outstanding. That comes to $15.59 which is about -30% under valued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595409444250472450?s=20&t=2kP2e3Wfqi9sfaU8qfVzhQ

In search of value $SANA:

This is a look at the valuation of $SANA.

Cash = $511 million

Their first 3 programs into the clinic will all be around CD19. They have CD19 in-vivo and ex-vivo then they have CD19/CD22 bi-specific CAR-T. I think the indications would limit this to about $500 million sales unless in-vivo works really well.

At $500 million in sales
*.1 for just starting phase 1
=$50 million value

The next big program is islet cells for diabetes. There is expected to be upward of 1.5 million patients living with Type 1 Diabetes. I would think this would be reserved for worst case patients at least at first.

Even if they could manufacture 15,000 doses a year @ $250,000 per, that comes to $3.75 billion a year. That is where I would start.
*.1 for preclinic
$375 million value.

All in, I get to $936 million valuation. They have about 191 million shares outstanding. This would put their value around $4.90. That puts it at about fairly valued until we get some data.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595775257939529728?s=20&t=83uCb2yXFlcYWwl1ZWhqxA

In search of value $KYMR:

A look at the valuation of $KYMR.

Cash = $596 million

IRAK4 is a very big indication. It could be worth $3 billion or more depending which indications it works out in. I don't think it works in all the indications they try, but it should work in most of them. They only have biomarker data so far.

They also have safety data. That would justify a .5 multiple due to some data. That would make this work $1.5 billion in value.

STAT3 could be another great indication with over $1 billion in sales. They have no data for this program yet so I would give it a .1 multiple for preclinic. That makes it worth $100 million in value.

Their last program is MDM2 for p53 cancers. This should be worth over $1 billion depending on the data. This is very early in preclinic. I would give it a .1 multiplier. That makes it worth $100 million value.

All in, I get to $2.296 billion valuation. They have about 54.9 million shares outstanding. That comes to $41.82. That makes this company extremely undervalued by -35%.
Followed by some Tweeters you follow

@Andre_AGTC
I like $KYMR, one of my favorites
Your valuation is reasonable but next IRAK4 readout may disapoint The treatment period was too short to have reliable efficacy data.
Not adding until I see the data in Dec. STAS3 is def much bigger than 1B. POM data in Dec may be positive

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595488449859325952

In search of value $BPMC:

A look at the valuation of $BPMC.

@Biotech2k1
Cash = $1.192 billion

Their sales for current commercial products are expected at around $200 million for 2022. These are mature sales so I will give them only 4x. That give them about $800 million value for current sales.

Non Advanced SM should get approval around mid year 2023. I see about 7,000 early patients with move over time. I would think about $50, 000 price. That comes in at about $350 million sales. Its already submitted.
*3 for phase 3 data
= $1.05 billion

The EGFR programs I will lump into one franchise as they all target the many mutations of EGFR. This could be upward of $1 billion or more. They do have some early phase 1 data.
*.5 for some phase 1
= $500 million value

Their next program is CDK2. I not as sure on this one, but would guess it could be $500 million or more. Since its just getting ready for phase 1, I would give it $50 million value.

All in, I get to $3.592 billion value. They have about 60 million shares outstanding. This comes to $59.86 which is about 25% undervalued.

@WarrrenSmith
What value do you put on BLU-263 and their wild type KIT inhibitor? I’m hoping they eventually target CSU with that one
@Biotech2k1
Its early but it could expand the population.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595506018800238592

In search of value $MRTX:

A look at the valuation of $MRTX.

Cash = $1.2 billion

Sitravatinib has been in phase 3 for a long time. I use to have sales around $250 million, but its been a long time waiting. They have decent phase 2 data for this program in refractory PD-1.
*2 for phase 2 data
$500 million value

Adagrasib is for KRAS G12C. I estimate the patient population in the 10k to 13k range. Splitting it with Amgen would be about 7,000 patients. Estimated price around $200,000. That is about $1.4 billion is potential sales.
*3 for phase NDA submitted
= $4.2 billion value

KRAS G12D is probably worth around the same value for G12C at $1.5 billion or more. I would value this at 10% since its just moving into phase 1. That is $150 million value

They have 2 early programs from PRMT5 and SOS1 which I would value at maybe $1 billion. Give them 10% of that would be another $100 million in value.

All in, that gets me to $6.15 billion value. They have about 57.6 million shares outstanding. That comes to about $106.77. That makes this company still undervalued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595772186668695553

In search of value $RVMD:

A look at the valuation of $RVMD.

Cash $655 million

SHP2:
They say this could be over 100,000 patients, but its a toxic target in this pathway. They partnered it 50/50 with Sanofi. I would give them $500 million because I am not sold on this target yet.
*1 for in phase 2
= $500 million value

They get up to $500 million in biobucks from this partnership. Based on the 10% success rate, I would value that at $50 million.

Many of their programs are focused on the RAS pathway. This is a huge target and could be worth over $2 billion in the pan RAS or the mutation specific RAS drugs work. This is just starting phase 1.
*.1 for starting phase 1
= $200 million value

They have a SOS1 and 4EBP1 program that could be worth $1 billion or more in early development. With a 10% success rate, that comes to about $100 million in value.

All in, that comes to $1.505 billion valuation. They have about 88.8 million shares outstanding. That comes to $16.94. That actually makes this still a bit over valued until we see that early RAS data.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595034882765381634

In search of value $BEAM:

Here is a look at the valuation of $BEAM.

Cash = $1.1 billion

Their first program is SCD which I know can do at least $1.5 billion a year in ex-vivo and work up to $3 billion or more in-vivo.
*1. for just starting phase 1
= $300 million value

They have 2 in-vivo live programs. Based on the patient populations of these programs, they could be worth $2 billion a year in sales.
*.1 for preclinical
= $200 million value

They get 50% of the PCSK9 revenues from $VERV
That is about $1.5 billion in sales if my very bearish math on that indication is right. That is $750 million for Beam.
*.1 for starting phase 1
=$75 million value

They get 50% opt in for the $APLS in C3 program for complement. This could easily be a $1 billion program as Solaris does at least 3x that amount in complement disorders. That is $500 million for Beam.
*.1 for preclinical
=$50 million value

They got a partnership with Pfizer in which they have $1.3 billion in biobucks. At a 10% success rate, that is $130 million value.

I put it all together and I get to $1.855 billion valuation. They have about 70.5 million shares outstanding. That comes to $26.31 until we see some human data. Yes, most CRISPR companies are over loved and over valued.

@RileyJon14
You mention $beam as your favorite current long term bio--but also view it as very over valued currently. Shouldn't the high valuation prompt you to trim/cut and add to those more undervalued?

@Biotech2k1
No. Why would I cut my best company because its overvalued? If the data comes out good, then its undervalued in the blink of an eye.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595048915870572546

In search of value $CRSP

A look at the valuation of $CRSP.

Cash = $1.973 billion

SCD is their main program. I think they could launch with up to 1,000 doses of manufacturing capacity. @ $2.5 million price, that is $2.5 billion in sales per year. They get 40% of this program for $1 billion to $CRSP.
*3 for phase 3
=$3 billion value

I am going to give zero value for CAR-T and diabetes. There data in these programs is the worst in class. Even if they make it to market, I would give $0 sales. No one wants the worst drug on the market.

All in, that is a valuation of $4.973 billion. They have about 78.3 million shares outstanding. That come in at about $63.51. That is about -12.5% undervalued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595031253367005189

In Search of Value $SDGR:

Here is a look at the valuation of $SDGR.

Cash = $513 million

They have $171 million in sales guidance for 2022. A standard software company trade in 10x to 14x sales. Even at only 10x that is $1.7 billion of value.

They have MALT 1
This is for B cell cancers. This could be worth up to $500 million or more depending how the data plays out.
*.1 for entering phase 1
= $50 million value

They have CDC7
This is a cell cycle drug that would be combined with CDK4/6 inhibitors. Depending on the data this could combine with Ibrance which makes $5 billion a year. If I give them just 20% of that, its a $1 billion drug.
*.1 for preclinical
= $100 million value

If you put it all together, I get $2.363 billion in valuation. They have about 72 million shares outstanding. That comes to $32.91. That makes this about 43% under valued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1594843404101369859

In Search of Value $RXRX

Here I am going to take a look at the valuation of $RXRX.

Cash = $454 million

REC-4881 MEK
FAP is about 25,000 in the US by my best guess. I think it could get about 20% market share depending on the data. This would be about a $500 million opportunity depending on price.
*.1 for phase 1 safety data
= $500 million value

REC-4881 MEK
They added several indications for this drug into early SKT11 and other Myc driven cancers. I haven't seen any data so I will omit this from the value at this point.

REC-994 Superoxide
This is a big indication with guess of at least 150,000 in US. I would think they level of patients who would use this would be around 10% market share. I would put this at about $250 million depending on price.
*.1 for phase 1 safety data
= $250 million value

REC-2282 for NF2
I am estimating around 15,000 patients in US. I would estimate around 20% market share and at least $100,000 price. That would be $300 million sales.
*.1 for phase 1 safety data
=$300 million value

REC-3964 for Cdif
This is a large indication with nearly half a million patients in the US. It depends on market share and price, but the total Cdif market is about $850 million. Even if they get 25% of that, it would be at least $200 million.
*.1 for no data
= $20 million value

They have upward of $13 billion in biobucks from all their partners. About 10% of the science succeeds so value that to 10% or $1.3 billion.

All in, that is $2.824 billion market cap. Based on their 10Q outstanding shares of 189,555,745, they should be worth $14.89. That puts it -39% undervalued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1594832291175473157

In Search of Value $RLAY

Here I am going to take a look at the valuation of $RLAY.

Cash $1.1 billion

SHP2:
They say this could be over 100,000 patients, but its a toxic target in this pathway. They partnered it 50/50 with Sanofi. I would give them $250 million because I am not sold on this target yet.
*1 for in phase 2
= $250 million value

FGFR2:
I can see at least 10,000 patients depending on market share with their data. I would give it $100,000 price which is low for these targeted therapies. That would be at least $1 billion potential.
*.1 for phase 1 data
= $1 billion value

PI3Ka is a huge indication with over 100,000 potential patients. I could see them getting at least 20,000 in the easy indications. I gave them a price of $150,000 which is average for targeted therapies. That is $3 billion potential
*.1 for early phase 1
=$300 million value

All in that is $2.65 billion market cap. Based on the 120,894,901 shares outstanding on the 10Q, that comes to $21.91. That still makes $RLAY about -15% undervalued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595023615795564544

In Search of Value $EXAI

Here I am going to take a look at the valuation of $EXAI.

Cash = $460 million Pounds or $542 million USD

Their first drug is for A2A which is a checkpoint for cytotoxic T cells. Based on its role in many cancers, it could be a big checkpoint should it work out. It has many competitors.

I would say this is worth at least $1 billion + for A2A based on its indications.
*.1 for starting phase 1
= $100 million value

CDK7 is part of controlling DNA replication in the cell cycle. Its designed to work with CDK4/6 inhibitors like Ibrance. Even if it got used in 20% of Ibrance patients, it would be worth $1 billion.
*.1 for preclincal
= $100 million value

They have over $6.5 billion in biobucks from their partnerships with BMS and Sanofit. Since only 10% of science work out, that would be $650 million value.

Put all the valuation together and you get to $1.392 billion valuation. Estimated shares outstanding are around 122.5 million. That is $11.36 per share. That makes it about -48% under valued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595138792410984449

In search of value $DNA

A look at the valuation of $DNA.

Cash = $1.3 billion

They have projected sales of $470 million for 2022. The average price to sales for a commercial biotech is 5x to 8x. Even if I go with the low end of the range that is $2.35 billon valuation.

All in, that gives it $3.65 billion valuation. They have about $1.74 billion shares outstand that count toward their valuation. That is about $2.09 stock price. That makes it about fairly valued for its stage of development at the low end of the range.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595144022649360384

In search of value $TWST

A look at the value of $TWST.

Cash = $505 million

They projected 2023 sales for $265 million. At 5x sales, that gets them to $1.325 billion value. That is if we don't count any of the potential milestones from their biopharma partners.

All in, that gets to $1.83 billion valuation. They have about 54 million shares outstanding. That comes to $33.88. That is about -26% under valued.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595397121259278341

In search of value $CDXS:

This is the valuation for $CDXS.

Cash = $108 million

They have about $135 million in sales, but its expected to decline next year as Paxlovid sales fade. If I go with $90 million sales, that could get me a number for next year. Even at 3x sales, that is $270 million value.

They do have partnerships in biotherapies for developing enzymes as therapies in genetic disease. Their first indication could be worth $1 billion sales. They get 5% to 10% royalty and upward of $335 biobucks based on success.

This would be about $33 million for the milestones and another $5 million in value for early stage development.

All in, that is $416 million of valuation. They have about 66 million shares outstanding. That comes to $6.30. That puts it at about -19% under valued. Its certainly a turn around story where biotherapies could become the biggest part of the business.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595134846082633729

In search of value $PACB

This is a look at the value of $PACB.

Cash = $834 million

They have a sales run rate of $130 million for 2022. Companies in this space trade in the range of 7x to 10x sales. With them launching 2 new devices for next year, I would give them 10x sales. That is worth $1.3 billion in value.

This brings the value up to $2.134 billion value. They have 226.1 million shares outstanding. That puts value at around $9.43. Its trading at a bit of a premium after being extremely undervalued for months.

--

https://twitter.com/Biotech2k1/status/1595100884488290307

In search of value $NVTA

A look at the value of $NVTA.

Cash = $596 million
They are burning huge amounts of cash

They have $517 million in expected 2023 sales.
The average P/S for this space is 5x
That is $2.585 billion in valuation
Back out the $1.5 billion in debt.

All in, I get to $1.681 billion market cap in value. Assuming the company can pay down the debt and get cash burn under control. They show 242.9 million shares outstanding. That is about $6.92 until debt is paid. That makes this company about -62% undervalued.6