Un post de opinion sobre ARIA que he encontrado interesante. Para quien pudiera interesarle.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94610810
"ARIA. Posted by AlantaMD at Yahoo board
From a hematologist/oncologist point of view
Hello folks, I'd like to help out by giving you my honest medical opinion on Ariad. I am a board certified hematologist oncologist and consider myself a specialist in leukemia/lymphoma, myeloma (hematologic malignancies). I have been following Ariad and their star drug ponatinib (iclusig) since ASH 2011. I was long only about 50 shares prior to the major crash in October, so not a huge loss. But when I saw the stock plummet to 2.15, I waited until it stabilized and waited to see what the reaction was after their most recent earnings. I added 4000 shares at $2.50. Most recently added another 815 shares at $5.05 last week. I feel pretty confident by going "all in" on with this stock because I know that there is a need for the drug, despite the higher risk of thrombotic episodes. First line therapy for CML had been gleevec (imatinib) for over the past decade plus. However 2nd generation TKI's like nilotinib (also novartis) and dasatinib (sprycel - bristol myers) are the new go to drugs, because they are superior to gleevec. When patients stop responding to gleevec or tasigna/sprycel, it may be because the patient was noncompliant to the drug. They often develop lethal mutations, the famous one called T315I is deadly short of an allogeneic stem cell transplant, which carries 20-30% mortality from that itself. Ponatinib (iclusic) has high response rates in this population, and very durable responses. It saves lives. So, I don't really care if the risk of thrombosis is higher, these patients will die in weeks to months without the drug. I may recommend that they be on an antiplatelet agent, such as aspirin 325mg, or maybe xarelto, plavix. We just don't know yet.. but the drug WILL come back. Ask any of the experts like Hagop Kantarjian or Jorge Cortes at MD anderson, and they will agree. Will this drug ever make first line therapy??? Probably not anymore, since Tasigna and Sprycel are very good to begin with... unless maybe they do another trial with
this drug saves lives, bottom line. I think just like Aranesp and Procrit, Revlimid, all drugs that are still marketed but have a REMS program, where you make sure you disclose to patient the side effects and have them sign a form.
Furthermore, this drug has efficacy in deadly forms of acute myeloid leukemia, with DNA mutation called FLT3. These patients are going to die regardless. Ponatinib can keep some of these patients alive. It's also efficacious in philadelphia chromosome positive ALL, another deadly leukemia.
Looking into their pipeline, they have a novel ALK inhibitor, that seems to be more efficacious than crizotinib (pfizer) for ALK+ lung cancer. So, maybe pfizer DOES want to buy Ariad, to own a competiting ALK inhibitor that would crush their own crizotinib (Xalkori). In early studies, their drug AP26113 has been shown to be efficacious in patients that progressed on Xalkori, which is very promising. Perhaps this will beat out Xalkori front line is my thought. This also targets ALK+ peripheral T-cell lymphoma as well.
Finally,
Only the best of the best studies are featured in the New England Journal of Medicine, because they are what we call "practice changing". Ponatinib has 2 studies published in the NEJM.
Nov 7, 2013
Nov 29, 2012
I think this weekend at the American Society of Hematology annual meeting in New Orleans will be telling. The experts will comment on new data, and offer advice as to how we can manage the risks involved with the drug. In general, europe is more strict on regulation of drugs than the United States, and that the EMA voted to keep the drug marketed in Europe helps Ariad's cause a lot in the US. This weekend should be a major catalyst, however when the FDA brings the drug back to market, I think the stock deserves to trade in the mid teens. "
