España
Gracias Triskis, es que dejé la sesión con unos 12 millones de volumen a falta de 30 minutos y me encuentro que ahora son 40 mill!
Y de mi broker no me fío del todo porque a veces los datos de volumen muestra cosas un poco raras...
NVAX
Triskis, voy a meter la patita en THLD el mismo Martes. Poquita cosa pero voy a meterme. Los 3,4x segun los vea para dentro. Ya se que el viernes fueron opciones pero esta ultima vela me pide a gritos guerra y como no es mucho lo que me juego si me equivoco y se va para abajo doblo posicion si puedo salirme de otros metesacas en curso (AMRN, OCAT).
THLD
Hola kikote, con todo el jaleo que hemos tenido esta semana creo que se nos habia pasado por alto tu post.
De ZGNX no controlo de fundamentales pero aqui hay muchos que si. Solo se que el 30 de Enero hay cita con la FDA asi que es previsible que "algo" pase, algun calenton previo
Por semanal no me dice nada, la verdad, o supera los 1,50 o no sale de donde anda. Quizas otros vean mas que yo.
algo mas de NVAX,sobre sus posibilidades
Nice to get a positive rating but it's grossly undervalued at a mere $7 price target for the end of 2015. The problem is that they mention only the flagrantly obvious (clinical trials in progress etc) and totally miss all of the subtleties, even points so remarkable that they rated an unprecedented publication in the NEJM of interim Phase I data on NVAX's H7N9 vaccine.
That was a far from trivial omission: The major reason for the precedent breaking publication was NVAX's outanding success against neuraminidase, a target that vaccine companies have been trying to address for many decades with no success whatsoever. (NVS did not even bother publishing anything on NAI in its "me too" publication of H7N9 data) Not only was it an "impossible" target, it is one highly critical to all influenza A's, one powerful enough to potentially entire change the face of both the seasonal and the pandemic influenza markets. Influenza has two "Achille's Heels", two proteins so critical to it's ability to infect that the entire nomenclature system for influenza is based on them: hemagultin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), the "H" and the "N" in HxNx. All current influenza vaccines address HA but are useless against NA. Influenza can easily "reassort" and change either or both of those proteins any season. NVAX now has the ability to very effectively address the NA changes as no other vaccine company can.
The ability to address NA would give NVAX a probably insurmountable advantage in both the seasonal and pandemic influenza markets, a combination worth Billions of dollars annually.
Yet somehow they failed to mention it. It does make one wonder where they get their, so called "analysts" from. Some of them have political science degrees rather than any remotely related to biology. Obviously scientific background is not high on their list of skill sets for analysts
es en repuesta a este articulo opinion
Novavax – NVAX (OW, $7 PT)
2015 is shaping up as a news rich year with several key data readouts and the
potential initiation of pivotal programs
What happened in 2014: In 2014, NVAX shares rose 10% vs. the NBI +30% and
+13% for the S&P. NVAX initiated four clinical trials in 2H14, setting the stage for
an important 2015 with several data readouts expected.
2015 Outlook & Thesis: We are optimistic about the potential of NVAX’s
proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology and believe the platform
has been validated by clinical data from several programs (RSV and H5N1/H7N9
flu). NVAX is the leader in developing a vaccine to protect against infection from
respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the leading cause of acute respiratory infections in
infants/children and what we view as the last major infectious pediatric disease
without preventive therapy. Based on safety and immunogenicity data, we see a high
probability of success for the RSV program and believe clinical data around mid-
2015 could drive meaningful upside in shares.
More specifically, NVAX initiated three clinical trials in 2014 for its RSVF protein
vaccine program: 1) a Ph2 trial in pregnant women in their 3rd trimester began in
2H14 with safety/ immunogenicity data of mother & child expected in late 3Q15, 2)
a Ph1 trial in pediatrics began in 2H14 with safety/ immunogenicity data expected in
3Q15, 3) a relatively large Ph2 trial in elderly pts (1,600 pts) began in 2H14 with
safety/ immunogenicity/efficacy signal data anticipated in 3Q15 (importantly, this
Ph2 data could define the design of the Ph3 trial, which could begin as early as YE15
in the N. hemisphere or in 1Q16 in the S. hemisphere). On NVAX's quadrivalent
seasonal influenza vaccine program, safety/ immunogenicity Ph2 data is expected
towards the end of 1Q15. Additionally, NVAX plans to initiate a Ph1 trial in 1Q15
with safety/ immunogenicity data expected in 2Q15for its combo RSV/influenza
product. The co plans to begin a Ph1 trial in 1Q15 for its ebola GP vaccine with
matrix-M, with data expected in 2Q15.
Key 2015 Catalysts: We expect important clinical data readouts throughout 2015,
incl Ph2 data for the RSV vaccine for maternal immunization and the elderly, and
Ph1 data for the RSV vaccine in pediatrics in 3Q15. Ph2 data for the quadrivalent
seasonal influenza vaccine is expected in 1Q15, and Ph1 data for a RSV+flu
combination vaccine and an ebola vaccine are expected in 2Q15. Importantly, Ph3
studies for the RSV vaccine for maternal immunization and the elderly could
potentially begin in late 2015.
Balance Sheet: NVAX ended 3Q with $190M in cash and no debt. Given this cash
position and with BARDA funding NVAX’s influenza programs, we estimate the
company has sufficient cash to fund programs into 2016.
Valuation and Key Risks: Our YE15 price target of $7 per share is based on a
blended average of our proprietary probability-adjusted scenario analysis (50%) and
a risk-adjusted NPV model (50%). Risks to our thesis/price target include clinical
setbacks (particularly for the RSV program) and competition from other companies
looking to develop an RSV vaccine.
y mira esto no sabia la diferencia de una fase II EN UNA VACUNA, que no es lo mismo a la hora de valorar , que si fuera para una droga medicamento-
NVAX has has consistently highly outstanding results in Phase II's in a market (RSV) worth more than a Billion dollars annually and one in which there is currently no significant competition. Note that for a vaccine with good Phase II's the odds of getting eventual approval are much higher than with drugs. While with drugs, Phase IIIs are mostly about the highly risky establishment of efficacy, with vaccines the Phase II data is far more indicative of efficacy than Phase II's of drugs and they're more about setting the optimal dose. IMHO, RSV results alone would fully justify the current market cap without even taking into account H7N9, MERS, Ebola, Rabies etc. This is especially true given the outstanding results against the highly unusual "gold standard" benchmark of Palivizumab like antibodies.
