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Farmas USA

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#71186

Re: Farmas USA

Carta de los de Bioinvest (MSTL) a sus clientes.

 

"NVAX will hold its earnings call on Monday, August 10 after the close of the market. With the flu vaccine data already out, the RSV results are not far behind. We expect positive result in both the Phase II elderly and maternal protection studies. As a result, good data will not only create further value, but will also de-risk the entire pipeline (and platform) and make NVAX a very valuable potential takeover target." 

 

NVAX

#71187

Re: Farmas USA

NVAX

NVAX mantendrá el CC de los resultados financieros del trimestre el lunes 10 de agosto tara el cierre del mercado.
Con los resultados de la cuadrivalente de la gripe ya publicados, los resultados del RSV no deben tardar demasiado. Esperamos resultados positivos para ambos casos, tanto los ensayos con ancianos como en los de inmunización de los recién nacidos vía materna.
Como resultado, estos buenos resultados no solo aumentarán el valor de la compañía sino que supondrán un considerable derisk del pipeline y también de toda la plataforma convirtiendo a Novavax en un potencial objetivo de adquisición (OPA).

Se puede decir más alto pero no más claro.

#71188

Re: Farmas USA

NVAX- puffff. menuda bomba sueltan.Nos dicen en toda la cara que los resultados son tan buenos que es posible que haya una OPA pronto. Así de claro. A ver quien es el guapo que suelta ahora cromos.
Estas son las palabras más claras y más cojonudas que he escuchado hasta ahora provenientes de NVAX.
Que tranquilidad me dan, aun más si cabe.
Es más, me huele que ese potencial objetivo de adquisición ya se ha confirmado bajo cuerda. No creeis?
Saludos a todos.
Por cierto Triskis, he leido hoy tu mensaje privado. Sinceramente, estoy totalmente de acuerdo con lo que en él comentas. Un saludo.

#71189

Re: Farmas USA

NVAX

Novavax hopes to crack elusive vaccine for common respiratory virus

Novavax espera lograr una (elusiva) difícil vacuna para un virus respiratorio común.

http://news.yahoo.com/novavax-hopes-crack-elusive-vaccine-common-respiratory-virus-050118803--finance.html

Podéis apostar a que este artículo está preparando el terreno para los resultados del RSV y es parte de la estrategia de Russo Partners dirigiendo la comunicación de Novavax.

#71191

Re: Farmas USA

NVAx- perdón donde digo provenientes de nvax, quiero decir referentes a nova, ya q la fuente directa q escribe la carta no es nvax

#71192

Re: Farmas USA

AMRN - NOTAS ACTUALIZADAS DE ANALISTAS

Mucha información aqui, MUCHA!

 

- Oppenheimer -

"We maintain our Perform rating on Amarin as we feel the current market cap of ~$425M properly reflects the company's stand-alone value. That said, given the unexpected NCE designation and ANCHOR free-speech victory, Amarin may be in a position to attract strategic interest, which could re-value the company favorably for investors."

"We currently assign a Perform rating to AMRN. While the free-speech legal victory will help Amarin communicate the results of the ANCHOR study in mixed dyslipidemia patients, a full approval and label change remain unlikely. Without the approval, we believe Vascepa sales growth will remain steady, and a meaningful inflection point may be difficult to achieve. While the REDUCE-IT study represents potential upside, the study readout isn't expected until 1H18. Additional upside could come from strategic interest, bolstered by the May 2015 NCE legal victory which should hold off generic entry until at least 2020.

Note: We view AMRN, as a stock trading under $5, as speculative and appropriate for risk-tolerant investors."

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7NEo4ZDNtbzhkd1k/view

 

- SunTrust -

AMRN will promote ANCHOR & JELIS Studies

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7WkZ1UDRFMWZkWUE/view

 
2Q15: Outlook intact after favorable 1st Amendment Ruling
 
 
Vascepa volume acceleration expected
 
Algunos extractos:
 
"We maintain our ‘15E Vascepa sales of $95M, but raised our LPS on $7M of higher SG&A spending behind ANCHOR/JELIS promotion in 2H15. AMRN is allowed to promote Vascepa’s use in 34M new users & communicate JELIS CV outcomes results which should accelerate prescribing. Five yrs. of NCE exclusivity removes generic risk & raises the probability that AMRN turns a profit in ‘16E & exceeds our ‘20E sales of $558M. If ‘20E sales/EPS rise to  
$750M/$1.79, our $6PT would increase to $10. The next catalyst is REDUCE-IT interim analysis in ‘16, which is a free call option. Maintain Buy/$6PT."
 
 
"AMRN plans to being ANCHOR/JELIS promotion as early as next week. We spoke with AMRN’s CEO who reiterated that “based on today's ruling AMRN plans to begin promotional activities consistent with the opinion as soon as possible.” Over the past 2 years, the FDA prevented AMRN from including ANCHOR or JELIS data in their label. The ANCHOR population represents ~16% of the adult US population, ~36M patients. This is a far larger oppy than 
the ~4M patients in the MARINE population that is in the Vascepa label. We believe this underpenetrated market could be addressed with greater sales & marketing resources. We expect the sales force to be trained with appropriate disclaimers & be in a position to hand out reprints of publications related to ANCHOR & JELUS studies, & other marketing material to allow effective oral & digital communication on the features, advantages & benefits of Vascepa in patients with elevated triglycerides in the 200mg/dl to <500mg/dl range along with potentially reducing CV risk that was demonstrated in JELIS. AMRN’s 130 & co-promotion partner Kowa’s 250 reps will call on their 20,000 & 25,000 
targeted physicians, respectively to promote both the benefits & risks in the ANCHOR & JELUS data. We expect AMRN to invest up to $7M in additional promotion behind ANCHOR & JELIS promotion. We would expect to see Rx 
volume trends accelerate over the next few months, with upside our 2020E Vascepa sales of $580M."
 
"Vascepa Ex-US deals on the horizon. AMRN is in active dialogue with potential partners in ex-US regions,  evaluating licensing rights for Vascepa in the EU, Eastern Europe,  Russia, LatAm, & the Middle East. We view other ex-US deals as catalysts that will drive other revenue higher contributing to driving  AMRN’s long term growth."
 
 
- Hainwright -
"How Much Is Off-label Promotion into a 10x Market Worth? Legal win should restore a fraction of Amarin’s structural value attributable to the ANCHOR indication."
 
 
 
 
 
JEFFERIES FLASH NOTE (13-OCT-15): 

* First Amendment Win Could Expand Vascepa Market Opp 10x 
* ANCHOR Impact Could Be Seen In The Next Quarters 
* AMRN has decided to rollout their new ANCHOR marketing material in a sequence of modules to avoid inundating physicians 
* Future modules are planned to detail inflammation benefits of Vascepa and the Japanese JELIS study that showed a CV outcomes benefit for E-EPA 
* Interim REDUCE-IT Analysis On Track For 2016 
* we believe that a favorable outcome in the interim analysis would lead to major upside beyond current levels 
* International Partnerships May Continue As Non-Dilutive Sources Of Cash 
(THAT IS WRITTEN SPECIFICALLY FOR MOGWAI) 
* we believe that partnerships for Vascepa in a contingent of international countries could be non-dilutive sources of cash 
 
 
OPPENHEIMER UPDATE ( 04-NOV-2015):
 
 
-- KEY POINTS --
 
■ Earnings in the just-reported quarter rose 52% year/year due to an increase in Vascepa scripts, up 51% y/y and 13% quarter/quarter, according to Symphony Health Solutions. Additionally, gross margins increased to 65% in 3Q15 vs. 62% in 3Q14 due to lower costs in API purchases. We are updating our model following 3Q.
 
■ Enrollment of REDUCE-IT is now 97% and is expected to be completed by year-end and to read out in 2018. An interim analysis of the data is expected in 2016 (more granularity expected on 4Q earnings), upon reaching 60% of the target aggregate number of CV events. We do not expect the study to be stopped early for either efficacy or futility.
 
■ Upcoming catalysts include 1) completion of REDUCE-IT enrollment by year-end 2015 or early 2016; 2) Vascepa script growth in the near/medium term as promotional efforts increase following favorable First Amendment ruling; and 3) interim analysis of REDUCE-IT data in 2016.
 
-- CATALYSTS --
 
■ Year-end 2015/early 2016—Completion of REDUCE-IT enrollment
 
■ 2016—Interim data analysis of REDUCE-IT trial
 
■ Vascepa script growth
 
■ 1H18—Full results from REDUCE-IT outcomes study of Vascepa in mixed dyslipidemia
 
 
 
H.C. WAINWRIGHT (05-11-2015 )
 
 
 
JEFFERIES (09.11.2015)

AMRN

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