Seguimiento de sector tabaco

Voy a estar por Miami hasta finales de mes a ver si aunque sea mejora el clima que no voy a poder pisar la playa con tranquilidad.
Y ya que estamos no sé siquiera si cotiza pero por si acaso no inviertas en Spirit (la aerolínea) han sido dos vuelos MIA-NY y la vuelta horribles hasta con un chicle pegado el asiento de enfrente, desde luego yo no me subiré nunca más en uno de sus aviones. Hasta el bus de NJ-NY era más cómodo y limpio jaja

Que opinan de Philip Morris? Un saludo

Pueden seguir existiendo fumadores, pero que la cifra vaya cayendo lentamente. La clave es prever si es un negocio que va a crecer, mantenerse o deteriorarse.

Un aspecto clave es la prohibición de la publicidad. El tabaco es un producto "de ocio", similar a los refrescos. Qué pasa con Coca-Cola?, que invierte un dineral en publicidad, porque saben que la Coca-Cola que no te tomes ahora, ya no te la tomas. La prohibición de la publicidad del tabaco, y de poder fumar en cada vez más sitios, los impuestos cada vez más altos... no benefician en nada al negocio. Y los países emergentes dejarán de serlo algún día, lo que traerá más concienciación en contra del tabaco.

Todos esos riesgos tienen que ir incluidos en el precio.

¿Y la publicida subliminal? cuantas cientos de películas, series, juegos, etc salen fumadores e incluso se ve la marca...cuanto más se prohibe algo más se fomenta su contrabando no su destrucción, si no mira el caso de la ley seca en USA, que consiguio...nada.

un s2 compy

Poco futuro le veo yo al tabaco,en 10 años no creo que queden fumadores,cada vez se le asocia con mas tipos de cancer,provoca casi todos los cancer de pulmon y casi todos los cancer de pancreas,los ministerios de salud y los impuestos acabaran con la industria tabacalera , y si no dentro de un tiempo hablamos

Tywin, me has quitado el artículo, lo quería escribir pero me tenía que mirar los números de Lorillard. Yo estoy metido en la operación a través de Imperial Tobacco que creo que ha hecho un gran negocio comprando las marcas que ha comprado.

Imperial Tobacco consigue:
- Pasar de ser un jugador residual con un 3% de share a un 10% en el marcado americano.
- Pasa de estar en unos pocos estados a ser un jugador en todos los estados con consiguiente aumento de sinergias, reducción de costes, etc...
- Consigue ser lider en cigarrillos electronicos en US. Ya sé que este mercado acaba de empezar pero es mejor empezar de líder.
- Consigue Winston que es una marca que creen que pueden relanzar en US y vende mucho fuera de US. Además consigue otras marcas de tabaco.

Un saludo.

PD: a mí también me extrañaba que nadie sacase el tema hehe

Otra más en la que coincidimos xaps10 hehe

Estoy pensando en entrar en Lorillard a la espera de si se realiza la compra por parte de Reynolds...y si se hace, quedarme con acciones de la nueva compañía....

Aquí dejo la última opinión de morningstar:

The market's discount to Lorillard's acquisition price may overstate the risk to the tobacco deals.
by Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM Authors can be reached at Analyst Feedback Morningstar's Editorial Policies
Analyst Note
Newport Continued to Outperform in Lorillard's 3Q, but Blu Is Suffering at the Hands of Competition
by Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM, 10/23/2014
Discuss
See what other investors are saying about LO
Investment Thesis 01/06/2015
With Lorillard the subject of a proposed $27 billion takeover by Reynolds American, the investment decision now hinges on whether the deal will close. We are confident that the deal will survive antitrust scrutiny, an outcome that would provide upside to shareholders from current levels, but significant downside risk remains if related transactions are blocked by regulators.

According to Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission 2010 guidelines, a proposed merger in a highly concentrated industry that increases the industry's Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index by 200 points or more is likely to be scrutinized by those agencies. We estimate that the proposed deals between Reynolds, Lorillard, and Imperial increase the HHI in the U.S. to roughly 4,000 from 3,600, a level that would trigger an antitrust analysis. Indeed, the FTC has asked for more information from all parties involved.

In light of this antitrust issue, the market's skepticism, as demonstrated by the current discount to the takeout price, is understandable. However, we believe there are reasons for optimism. We estimate price elasticity to have been around -0.35 over the last 35 years in the U.S., so higher prices are likely to accelerate the rate of consumption decline. We acknowledge that this is beyond the remit of the DoJ or FTC, but we believe the public health benefit to higher prices will weaken the political pressure to block the deal. In addition, the role of Imperial Tobacco could be critical. With few marketing levers to pull, turning around the Winston brand could require competitive actions on pricing, which could weaken Marlboro's price-maker status.

If the tobacco deals are blocked, we think Lorillard shareholders will face downside risk to the value of their investment. We regard Lorillard as a high-quality business due to the strength of the Newport brand, which operates in market categories that are declining at a slower rate than the broader U.S. industry. However, as a standalone entity, and without the estimated $1 billion in cost savings under the merger, we believe the business is worth around 2 turns less than the 12 times EBITDA acquisition price.

Economic Moat 01/06/2015
The addictive nature of cigarettes, barriers to entry into the U.S. cigarette market, and the loyalty of Newport smokers give Lorillard a wide moat, in our opinion. Demand for menthol cigarettes has been very stable in recent years, even compared with the broader U.S. cigarette industry. Volumes of full-flavor menthol cigarettes have declined at a rate of less than 1% since 2007, well below the 4%-5% annual decline in non-menthol cigarettes over the same period, whose market share has remained robust, even in the face of pricing competition. We attribute this stability in part to very strong brand loyalty to Newport, which remains the leader in menthol despite several attempts to grab share by competitors. For example, Reynolds American has removed its marketing support for Kool in the wake of its failed strategy in 2009 and 2010 to grow market share through price promotions. Having failed to beat Newport, Reynolds is now proposing to acquire it, and as part of the deal will dispose of Kool, and its other menthol brand Salem, to Imperial Tobacco. We think Imperial could experience similar difficulties in trying to take market share from Newport, particularly given the marketing restrictions that act as high barriers to entry and have helped to keep the market shares of incumbent players stable.

We believe Lorillard's continued pricing power, as demonstrated by its best-in-class operating margins above 40%, should drive continued excess returns on capital. We forecast returns on invested capital, including goodwill but excluding excess cash, to remain above 120% throughout our five-year forecast period.

Valuation 01/06/2015
Our fair value estimate for Lorillard is $69 per share, in line with the proposed acquisition price. The valuation represents 12 times 2013 EBITDA, a value in line with recent deals in mature tobacco markets. While the acquisition must still pass scrutiny by the FTC and the DoJ, we believe it will meet antitrust requirements given the material asset disposals made by Reynolds American. However, on a standalone basis and using our discounted cash flow methodology, we estimate Lorillard's value to be $54 per share, in light of the announcement that the firm is to be acquired by Reynolds American at that price. Driven by pricing and low single-digit volume declines (in line with recent trends) we forecast Lorillard's revenue growth to accelerate from 2% in 2014, when pricing was below par and e-cigs weighed on growth, to 4% through the rest of our forecast period. Given Lorillard's below-industry volume declines, we expect the impact on its operating margin from declining consumption to be less severe than its domestic competitors, and we forecast EBIT margins to be flat across our five-year forecast period. As a standalone entity, and on a medium-term, normalized basis, we think Lorillard could grow its EPS at a mid-to-high single-digit annual rate, assuming around $3 billion in share repurchases every year.

Risk 01/06/2015
Fundamentals in the oligopolistic tobacco industry are fairly sound, leading to revenue and profit growth that is among the most stable in our coverage universe. However, the threat of significant actions by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration against menthol cigarettes, which we view to be slight, is the most meaningful risk for Lorillard. For this reason, we believe an uncertainty rating above its domestic tobacco peers is justified. The Newport brand, which is predominantly menthol, represents almost 90% of the company's sales. Should the FDA choose to meaningfully restrict or ban menthol cigarettes, Lorillard's financial performance would probably collapse catastrophically. Nonetheless, we believe that this risk is minor because the FDA must also weigh the impact of the unintended consequences, including increased black-market sales, increased youth access, and more than $10 billion of lost government revenue related to taxes on menthol cigarettes.

The firm faces thousands of lawsuits, which results in an unpredictable level of legal liabilities. Also, Lorillard is keenly focused on the cigarette market and lacks a presence in the cigar and smokeless tobacco markets. Per-capita cigarette consumption in the U.S. has been falling since the 1970s, and is likely to continue to fall during the next decade. Falling volumes will likely have an impact on the company's capacity utilization rate at its lone manufacturing facility and could result in a profitability headwind.

Management 01/06/2015
We are raising our stewardship rating for Lorillard to Exemplary from Standard. CEO Murray Kessler's track record in the tobacco industry is outstanding. As CEO of UST, he oversaw the sale of the business to Altria in 2008 at a 30% premium to its market price. In the top job at Lorillard, Kessler has developed an already strong business by executing growth strategies in noncore geographies west of the Mississippi and market segments such as nonmenthol and e-cigs. Ultimately, the sale of Lorillard to Reynolds and Imperial, if the deals are permitted by antitrust regulators, will unlock around 25% of upside to the pre-rumor market price, on top of the near 30% annual total return delivered by the stock since Kessler took the reins in 2010. Given the lack of acquisitions available, we believe the firm's dividend policy is an efficient use of capital and approve of management's decision to leverage up the balance sheet following the company's 2008 emergence as an independent, publicly traded company.

Even if the sale of the business flounders on antitrust grounds, we believe shareholders should take comfort from their investment being in the safe hands of an experienced team that has delivered impressive shareholder returns over time.

Overview

Profile:

Lorillard is the third-largest manufacturer of cigarettes in the United States. Its flagship brand, Newport, claims an almost 15% share of the total U.S. cigarette market and a 40% share of the menthol category. The firm's other full-price brands include Kent and True. Its leading discount cigarette brands are Maverick and Old Gold. In 2012, the company acquired Blu, to enter the electronic cigarette category.

Una compañía con casi 300 años de historia, casi nada...

Por cierto hoy me he comprado un Zippo, de Harley, y que gran compañía se pierde la bolsa...

Un s2 compy

Sin entender mucho, mirando las cuentas en google finance tiene mejor pinta Reynolds que Lorillard, ya te digo que no se como se interpretan las cuentas según a que se dedique cada gremio de compañías, pero Lorillard me parece que tiene más pasivo que activo, y eso creo que no es bueno.

S2