Re: Parece que a Mediación no va a ningun lado... vamos a la Guerra
Maximunae teniendo Wells Fargo como fiduciario ¿Ves correcto esta prevision futura de precios en base al evento pendiente con las DIMEQ?
Numbers that were provided based on distribution on 10/31/11. Only totals here for simplicity.
WAHUQ:
Principal plus FJR (1.9%) = $838m
Interest owed up from CS (if paid) = $529m
Proceeds left for distribution = $309m
This leaves a payout of around 37% to WAHUQ holders. The debtor claims only around 32% which means they have calculated in the slight shortfall to WAHUQ holders (less that $838m available.)
Distribution to WAHUQ shareholders:
$309m x 23m shares = $13.43 / share
Monthly cost due to CS interest:
$529m / 37 months = 14.3m per month
Monthly decrease in distribution:
14.3m x 23m shares = $0.62
In less than 22 months, there will be no money left to Piers for distribution only considering cost of contractual subordination and no other estate costs. If we assume money will come from SNHs to make Piers holders whole as the money first would flow through the estate before reaching equity (according to the Judge's opinion), and contractual subordination is upheld, the WAHUQ has an estimated payout of $13.43 as of 10/31. If it takes six additional months for a plan to be finalized, the Piers would drop by .62 per month leaving a little less than $10 per share.
The Debtor is trying to claim that there may be as much as 30m per month in burn rate which is ridiculous considering noteholders interest accumulating at FJR. Like I said, though, I expect money to come to estate from SNHs that will cover any additional expenses until a plan is confirmed with the additional money flowing to equity.
Payout of 337m to DIMEQ can put a large dent in the above plan UNLESS waterfall reaches equity by at least that amount. If so, then DIMEQ does not affect distribution to WAHUQ. If waterfall only covered WAHUQ with nothing reaching equity, then payout to DIMEQ would wipe out distribution to WAHUQ with only 309m available (309-337m = zero for Hs).