Washington Mutual demanda a la FDIC por 17 billones US$ + daños

Gracias Adru:
Siento algo de intrankilidad. Gracias por tu comentario!

Not much else going on so just thought I'd stick my neck out and make a prediction intended to be based on facts and common sense but of course you be the judge. So here goes...

Sometime on or around April 16 the SNH's will receive a significant distribution. In conjunction with that or very shortly thereafter, there will be a $5 billion offering of preferred stock in WMIH. These will be quickly gobbled up by our ball and chain business associates aka the hedge funds and TPSC.

This occurrence will be a very good thing for us, the first time in a very long time. However, we will not see the $25+/share that this would suggest at the current share structure.

While this preferred issuance takes place or perhaps immediately before or after, the outstanding shares in WMIH commons will be raised from 200 million to 500 million (already authorized) resulting in a PPS of $10/share. On a personal note, this is on the low end of what I would personally consider to be a meaningful recovery.

Within a couple of days leading up to these events I fully expect the MM's to try to shake out as many weak hands as possible. I will see this as a sign that my 8 ball theory is in motion.

This will be the best we can expect to get. It won't be in the form of $20 billion magically showing up in the LT. We may see some crumbs go into once higher claims are disposed of but whatever it is will just be gravy. $10 PPS in WMIH will be the meat.

Happy waiting!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well since we're guessing here, I think there are two possible scenarios.

1) IF the HFs really want this baby, they could offer $20/share to retail which would cost them approx. $800M assuming retail owns 20% of WMIH shares.

2) WMIH merges with a large "Financial Services" company for its NOLs/CLs. In this scenario that transaction would have to be worth $4B to get to the $20/share.

I like our odds on scenario one as it is less expensive and I have a strong assumption the HFs know how to turn WMIH into many billions over the years. Why would the HFs buy $5B in prefs when they can pay $800M and have the whole company minus retail? This lets so the HFs slink back into the shadows.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Whomever wants to make money with NOLs there will have to be an investment and taxable revenue.
2) $5B in preferred and a subsequent purchase of a viable money-maker will cover coupon rates and make money - tax-free, at an amount at least the tax rate higher than the coupon rates.

Who to buy? That is still a big question mark. I guess people can understand why it's not public knowledge who would be bought. The only public information is that the $5B Preferred is authorized.

Regardless of a buy-out of retail, HF are interested in making money, tax-free, using NOLs asap. I assume they have more options if they can take WMIH private but they want to make good money regardless. This is all good for Equity holders.

From what I understand, WMIH has authorized the ability to sell up to 5b in face of preferred shares. There, however, are concerns that this capital raise could effect the ability to use the NOLs depending on both the type of preferreds issued and the type of losses available to WMIH. I sense that WMIH will find a legal way to issue these preferreds so that they do not cause issues with the usage of the NOLs available. It DOES NOT look like the authorization involves pure preferreds based on what is authorized and they look to be convertible. Of course, whatever changes must be made to make sure these preferreds qualify would likely be incorporated to the actual issuance to make sure they meet IRS requirements.

Why would anyone put 5b into a shell of a company that is practicly worthless and has no real business plan? Well, there actually would be a business plan to merge or buy other entities to make use of the billions of NOLs or losses available to WMIH. If, over time, WMIH can purchase entities creating an annual income (profits) of just 500m (above dividend to preferreds), this creates 5b in profits over 10 years which equates to at least 1.5b in tax value (30% tax rate avoided due to the NOLs.) Of course, the owner of the preferreds does not share in this benefit as this money goes to value in common shares.

So, some outsider would very likely NOT risk buying up preferreds in a shell just to receive a dividend check of maybe 7% since there is quite a bit of risk with literally no upside to the value of the preferreds. Of course, if those preferreds are convertible at some point and can meet IRS guidelines in doing so, then that would allow those preferred holders to benefit from common share price appreciating significantly over time.

More than likely, an insider would want to raise capital by purchasing preferreds if they have a significant interest in the common shares of WMIH. This is because that once the capital raise occurs, WMIH will be worth quite a bit more since the raise was done by preferred shares and not debt or common dilution. If 5b was raised and 200m shares are only outstanding, it could be argued that commons are now worth $25 per share (in cash). We know, however, that the cash would actually go back to the preferreds due to liquidating preferrence. So, commons would be worth quite a bit more than .70, but not anywhere close to $25. Just think, though. Lets say the SNHs invest 5b and own 150m shares of WMIH. If the resulting PPS of the cash infusion puts commons at $10.70 per share, they suddenly have increased their equity value by 1.5b in commons and still own preferred that may be trading on the market at par of 5b. No, the company does not have over 7b to make that true, but it is now a value on paper due to the way the market will value WMIH.

Now, with 5b in cash, WMIH can buy or merge with another entity up to 5b and actually pay out in shares of WMIH rather than give up the cash, to grow the company. I have explained this possibility before and will not go into deeper details here. Just to be clear though, a cash infusion via preferreds would have a dramatic effect on common shares and it would be dependent on how the preferreds are classified. If they are pure preferreds, WMIH stock would surely be worth more than convertible preferreds that have a specific strike price that will heavily dilute the value of commons. Depending on the structure of the preferreds, I suspect WMIH stock would rise to anywhere from $3 to maybe $12 or so depending on how the market values the infusion. Even if the 5b came in as debt, I would still think WMIH would jump up to $2-3 at a minimum.

veo el foro muy parado desde la conversion. ME DA que la mayoria de la gente ha vendido viendo que esto no tira para arriba.

SALUDOS MANZANITA Y SIMPSON:
Quién me dice la clave de las nuevas wamu en Frankfurt?

Manzana si crees que esto va a ser de un día para otro te recomiendo que vendas.
WMIH es un valor para tener paciencia 6 meses hasta tener noticias de los planes del BOD y para estar invertidos al menos 2 años hasta valorar la inversión.
¿podra haber noticias que nos hagan subir antes? es probable pero ten esa mentalidad y así podras llevar mejor el goteo de información de WMI Holdings.
Los 8K y 10K ya sabremos más en Julio.

Yo creo que tenemos un suelo en 0.60 y todo el mundo está expectante para conocer algo del Business Plan de la New Co... si quieren los NOL´s deben buscar formulas para buscar una fusión con inyección de capital. Es imposible hacerlo de otra manera y los Hedge Funds estan aquí para ganar mucha pasta...de eso no te quepa la menor duda.

The company started with $200 Mil capitalization which equals to $1 a share, there is currently no news to justify the drop in share price. There might be expenses such as wages, office and legal fees but those are minor and will be covered by any money returning to the estate since some of those legal fees will be spent on litigation against other co.

I often use minimum value to avoid any disappointment, if we only use the basic $200 mil + 10% of NOLs available, we have a minimum value of
$200 mil + $600 mil = $800 mil = $4 a share for new co.
Until we have more news about whether IRS will allow the gifts to JPM as capital loss, that's the figure I think is a MINIMUM value.

A word to Hedge Funds, you might think that you had put the IT behind you by editing BK. Unless you guys let the shareholders fairly share into the profit, you will have hundreds and thousands of angry people who will complaint to the AG about IT and a criminal investigation WILL take place if we are insistent enough. Therefore, cheating us will not make us go away, you know how persistent we can be.

Myadad: I am wondering if we have all been watching a master magician who has diverted our attention with all this talk about keeping ownership intact, while knowing full well it was a smokescreen for what was really going on.

I'm NOT going to try and guess as to how much in NOLs and capital losses WMIH is going to end up with because, like you, I believe we have had smoke blown at all of us & the Court ((& up you know where)) while they worked their initial deal (2009/10) with the SNHs to take over the reorganized company.

I knew that right from the get-go when you look at the odd tax refund splits that had NO rhyme or reason except to short WMI enough to impair the PIERS with a designed $2MM minimum investment to be a shareholder in the NewCo.

If WMI NewCo was not immensely beneficial to them they would have bargained hard to get the other $200MM or so to pay themselves off and moved on from this deal back in 2010!!

They had the financial resources to hire tax lawyers to work out HOW they could take the NewCo and get around the IRS rules to use whatever had the most tax benefit!! They would have had to because they didn't have any "old & cold" equity or debt to use to meet the IRS code.

Again ... I'm not going to spend any more time guessing at what they (SNHs & Rosen) did or even try to figure out how much LOSSES are even available to WMIH because I don't believe we've ever seen all of the true numbers or facts to come close to what they know.

The main thing that matters now is if the auditors can line item Deferred Tax Assets to the audited financial statements that will add value to WMIH and its stock price!!