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#123

Re: Galaxy resources
Dogville86

Yo creo que voy a entrar. La minería va a seguir bien. Creo que meteré 2000 Euros.

#124

Re: Galaxy resources

La NVP update del proyecto de Sal de Vida fue lanzado el lunes por la tarde hora australiana.

#126

Re: Galaxy resources
steri

El litio puede hacer del país la Dubái de 2050
Japón y Francia ya cuentan con tecnología para generar energía eléctrica con base en el litio.

La Razón Digital / Rolando Kempff Bacigalupo
00:54 / 02 de agosto de 2016
Si el país consigue aprovechar los tiempos, tendría en la riqueza del Salar de Uyuni el sustituto de los actuales ingresos petroleros. Hace unos años, la revista estadounidense Forbes reconoció que Sudamérica podrá convertirse en la “Arabia Saudita del litio”, porque los yacimientos de ese mineral entre Bolivia, Chile y Argentina superan el 75% de las reservas mundiales.

Así, el litio, también llamado “petróleo blanco”, se convierte en la esperanza económica del país. Y parece que el Gobierno lo reconoce, pues tiene un programa de inversiones para el sector que supera los $us 900 millones. La industria del automóvil trabaja para dejar de lado el petróleo. Los grandes fabricantes investigan en varios frentes: desde los combustibles denominados bio hasta el hidrógeno, pasando por los coches eléctricos, que es la opción de mejor éxito para el proyecto del litio.

La demanda por baterías es el segmento más dinámico en el uso del litio. Se proyecta una utilización anual de 20.000 toneladas (t) de litio en la fabricación de baterías para vehículos eléctricos, cuya producción estimada en 2015 fue de 500.000, y llegará a 1,5 millones en 2020, con un crecimiento proyectado del 136%.

Por otra parte, la fusión termonuclear demandará irradiaciones de blancos de litio en cantidades considerables. Esta fuente de energía, al contrario que la nuclear, es limpia e inagotable. Japón y Francia ya cuentan con tecnología para generar energía eléctrica con base en el litio.

En cuanto a la oferta mundial de litio, Bolivia posee el 47,2% de las reservas sudamericanas de ese mineral. Globalmente las reservas de aproximadamente 30 millones de toneladas aseguran más de 200 años de consumo. El precio internacional del litio aumentó en tres veces su valor entre 2003 y 2008, de $us. 2.000/t. a $us 6.000/t. De mantenerse este precio, Bolivia podría obtener ingresos hasta de $us 1.200 millones en 2020, y representaría aproximadamente el 4% del PIB de ese año, que podría subir al 10% en el mediano plazo.

El Salar de Uyuni es el mayor desierto de sal del mundo, con aproximadamente 12.000 km² de extensión. Ubicado a 3.650 metros sobre el nivel del mar, tiene 64.000 millones de toneladas de sal. La caja de sal tiene una profundidad de 120 metros aproximadamente; asimismo, concentra la mayor reserva de litio del mundo.

El país comenzará a producir cerca de 50.000 toneladas de carbonato de litio a escala industrial, grado batería, desde el último trimestre de 2018, según estimaciones de Comibol. La construcción de la planta industrial de carbonato de litio, en Uyuni, estará concluida en abril de 2018. La producción industrial comenzará luego de concluida la fase de pruebas. En agosto de 2015, la Gerencia de Recursos Evaporíticos y la empresa alemana K-UTEC AG Salt Tecnologies firmaron un contrato para la elaboración del diseño final de la mencionada planta. Hasta el momento, el Gobierno ha invertido $us 250 millones en la industrialización del litio. El total estimado del proyecto sería de más de $us 900 millones. Las debilidades que pueden presentarse en el desarrollo de este proyecto son elevados costos de explotación (superiores a los de Chile, líder del sector); la falta de infraestructura caminera y de ferrocarril adecuada para su transporte, y principalmente la decisión oportuna para desarrollar el litio en el país.

En resumidas cuentas, el litio podría convertir a Bolivia en un país muy rico; en palabras de la Gaceta de España, la nación “podría convertirse en la Dubái de 2050”. Para ello, se debe asumir la determinación de instrumentar el proyecto del litio antes que otros actores o el desarrollo tecnológico desplacen esta oportunidad de tener un megaproyecto con un polo de desarrollo de gran impacto económico en Potosí. ac

http://www.la-razon.com/opinion/columnistas/litio-puede-hacer-pais-Dubai_0_2537746281.html

#129

Re: Galaxy resources
steri

Time To Buy The Australian Lithium Miners

Sep. 13, 2016 7:16 AM ET
|
4 comments
|
| Includes: ALTAF, GALXF, NMT, OROCF, SQM
by: Matt Bohlsen

[​IMG]
Matt Bohlsen
Follow (1,192 followers)
Investment advisor, portfolio strategy, growth at reasonable price

Summary

Reasons for the Australian miners sell off.
Comparisons of valuation for my top 4 Australian lithium miners.
What I expect going forward.

The Australian lithium miners have been on a wild ride in 2016. Many rose over 500% in the first half of 2016, only to see a savage pull back in the order of 50% in July, August and September. Investors that invested in June/July/August have been hit the worst. See graphs below.

In this article, I will examine reasons for the sell-off, valuations, and what I expect going forward. In particular, I will relate this to my top four Australian lithium miners.

Reasons for the Australian lithium miners sell-off
The Australian lithium miners market became overbought and rose too quickly. Whenever you get a rapid or exponential rise, many of the early investors and sometimes company insiders, choose to off load after making enormous short term gains, despite the long term fundamentals. I don't see this as a deliberate pump and dump, but merely a victim of an incredible short term rally that probably rose too fast.
At the height of the rally Macquarie came out with a very negative report on August 9, basically stating they believed we would soon have an oversupplied lithium market. They severely cut targets to all of the big four Australian lithium miners. I believe their report assumptions to be far too negative. For example, I see lithium demand being much stronger. My own research and modeling assumes the average electric vehicle (EV) going forward will have a 60kWh battery (Macquarie and others use 15-30kWh), and I also forecast higher EV sales as a percentage of all global car sales. For example my 2020 forecast is 8-10%, and 2025 is 40-50%. Macquarie and others forecast figures much lower than this. Current EV growth rates over 50% pa support my assumptions, especially when you had in ebuses, etrucks, and ebikes.
The lithium carbonate 99.5% China spot price has fallen around 12.5% in the past 3 months. I think this is a minor factor as lithium contract prices are still holding up strongly. Also the Canadian lithium miners have risen and played catch up the past 3 months (as I had forecast), showing that the Australian lithium miners have been singled out in this down turn.

1 year comparison of the Australian top 4 lithium miners and the Australian All ordinaries index.
[​IMG]Click to enlarge
Source
The graph above shows Galaxy Resources (OTCPK:GALXF) was the top performer over the past year at one stage it was up a staggering 2,000%. Today Galaxy is still up 1,100% even after a fall from around AUD 0.60 to AUD 0.32. Investors should remember that Galaxy was almost bankrupt back when the stock was just 2.5 cents. Their AUD 200m debt has been largely removed, and Mt Cattlin re-opened.
Altura Mining (OTC:ALTAF) was the second best performer over the past year at one stage it was up about 1,500%. Today Altura is still up 636%.
Pilbara Minerals (ASXPLS) was up around 400%, and today is still up 188%.
Orocobre (OTCPK:OROCF) was up around 250%, and today is still up 154%.
Comparison of the top 4 Australian lithium miners' valuations versus current stock price
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9
Current
Price (AUD)
Year
low
Year
high
Macquarie
1 yr targets Brokers
1 year
targets My end 2017/18 earnings multiple
targets My DCF
target
Upside ranges (%)
ORE 3.87 1.33 5.05 5.00 4.79 4.96
(2017)
  24-29
GXY 0.325 0.024 0.58 0.41 0.65 0.61
(2017)
0.92 26-183
PLS 0.505 0.17 0.87 0.50 0.74 0.97 (2018)   0-47
AJM 0.14 0.019 0.28 0.16 0.32 0.31 (2018)   14-129

Click to enlarge
NB: The above figures are in AUD. In the upside ranges I only included based on 2017 targets. 2018 targets were included for PLS and AJM as they won't have earnings until then.
NB: I have left out Neometals (NYSE:NMT) as it has been selling down its stake in Mount Marrion.
You can see from the table above current prices are well below the 1 year targets, including the very negative Macquarie targets. Pilbara being the exception. In other words, taking the most cautious targets investors could expect a 1 year upside of 24% for Orocobre, 26% for Galaxy Resources, 0% for Pilbara Minerals, and 14% for Altura Mining. Based on what I view as less pessimistic assumptions, investors could expect a 1 year upside of 29% for Orocobre, 183% for Galaxy Resources, 47% for Pilbara Minerals, and 129% for Altura Mining.

Back on April 7, when I wrote "Lithium Miners Are Booming As Lithium Spot Prices Rise - Which Lithium Companies Should I Buy?" I said: "My top three lithium miners for now would be Albemarle, Galaxy and Orocobre. I would invest a smaller sum now, and look to add on any dips, bearing in mind some miners have recently spiked as the lithium spot price spiked." Well, dear investors, the large dip is here now. No-one can say if we are at the bottom of that dip but I can say valuations are very compelling right now for the Australian lithium miners, and the long term lithium demand story is still intact, in my view.
I conclude from the above that the Australian lithium miners are now oversold and it is "time to buy the Australian lithium miners". Those investors who entered a bit late should use this opportunity to lower their average purchase cost.
What I expect going forward
Going forward I expect several things to happen.
1) Lithium demand to strengthen, especially as EV sales continue to grow globally, currently at 53% pa. I believe this can even increase as the mainstream car makers are now rushing to build EVs and the energy storage market is just getting going. The lithium battery manufacturers certainly agree with my view as they are all increasing production and several new entrants are joining the rush. Sony being the most notable recent entrant. You can view my research on lithium demand versus supply here.
2) The Australian lithium miners discussed in this article will settle in price, then resume the second leg up of what can be a 20 year lithium boom. I wrote about this idea here. Investors need to remember we are still in the very early stages of what I believe will be a 20 year lithium bull run. As with all bull runs, we get setbacks along the way. Early buyers, insiders, and day traders will sell quickly on any downwards momentum. This shake out usually lasts only a few months, then if the underlying fundamentals and valuations are sound (which they are), the bull run continues higher and stocks make higher highs.

3) We may see some mergers and buyouts across the lithium mining sector, such as this month's Tianqi Lithium (SHE:002466) plan to bid for a 23% stake in Chilean rival Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE:SQM). The Chinese know the lithium boom has only just begun. Both Tianqi and Gangfeng Lithium (SHE:002460) have been positioning themselves to be major players in the lithium supply business, and continue to do so as recently as this month.
Conclusion
Investors can read my specific articles on Orocobre, and Galaxy Resources, or my latest lithium miners monthly update here. I have not yet written on Pilbara Minerals as it does not yet have a US ticker, and I may soon write on Altura Mining.
I view all four Australian lithium miners as solid long term buys, particularly at the current prices. My favorite remains Galaxy Resources and I am quite shocked at its current stock price being so undervalued. Orocobre remains a safer play given it is a low cost Argentine brine producer, currently ramping up production. Pilbara Minerals and Altura Mining are very similar. Both have lithium deposits at Pilgangoora in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Pilbara Minerals has the larger deposit, whilst Altura has a lower start up CapEx and is likely to reach production sooner (in 2017). To be buyers of spodumene lithium producers it helps if you believe demand will be strong, as currently spodumene lithium production costs are much higher than brine making them more vulnerable to any severe lithium pricing corrections.
In conclusion, investors should not be panicked or spooked by the current sell down. It is common after exponential rises that early short term investors cash out. My style of investing always buys into a position over time. This way if a stock falls I can buy some more and lower my cost base. If a stock rises I may not buy more, but I will be sitting on gains so I will not be concerned. The long term lithium demand and EV and energy storage boom continues to get stronger every month, which is why I remain a committed long term investor of this sector.

As usual any comments are welcome.
Disclosure:I am/we are long OROCOBRE (ASX:ORE), GALAXY RESOURCES (ASX:GXY), PILBARA MINERALS (ASXPLS) , ALTURA MINING (ASX:AJM).
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

#130

Re: Galaxy resources
steri

5,56% arriba con impresionante volumen superior a 100 millones.

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