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Price target methodology and risks
Our PT for Amadeus of €17 is based on a 2011e target
EV/EBITDA of 9x, which is above the average multiple of 8.8x
for the peer group range.
We think that Amadeus deserves a premium rating, given
higher growth relative to the peer group, on the back of: i) its
structurally strong position, with global leadership in both
Distribution (GDS) at 37% and PSS at 28%; ii) its exposure to a
cyclical recovery underway in the global travel industry, led by
the emerging markets; and iii) the high visibility and leverage in
its Altéa IT unit.
Risks to our PT include: i) Competition: Increasing competition
from GDS peers Sabre and Travelport; ii) Macro: Especially in
Western markets; and iii) Pricing: Declines in fees/booking in
GDS.
Amadeus Fuente: Morgan Stanley Análisis