MFS Meridian Prudent Wealth: ¿El mejor Mixto Agresivo?

Aquí un video para profesionales sobre el fondo Prudent Capital de MFS

Hola 
Como comenté llevo desde hace meses el LU0583242994 y lo he estado comparando con este
  LU1442549298  y el de moneda cubierta se ha comportado mejor , tanto este como el 
  LU0808562614   (prudent capital y prudent Wealth moneda cubierta ) esta vez no me ha funcionado llevar moneda no cubierta y he decidido pasar al  .... 298 que lleva bankinter
Cual te gusta más el Prudent wealth o capital ?
Saludos 

Muchas gracias .
En el segundo enlace expones de forma didáctica y clara la diferencia entre el Capital y wealth

Los fondos concretos no los conozco, así que no te puedo aconsejar entre ellos.
Sobre la moneda, en los últimos 2 o 3 meses el dólar se ha depreciado aproximadamente un 6% respecto al euro.
Ese 6% de bajada ha afectado a la clase sin cubrir, pero no a la cubierta.
Otra cosa es intentar adivinar lo que va a ocurrir a partir de ahora con el EUR/USD.
Habiéndote pasado a la clase cubierta, si el dólar sigue depreciándose habrás acertado, mientras que si el dólar se aprecia te habrás columpiado.
Yo, como no tengo ni idea de lo que va a hacer el EUR/USD, no te puedo decir si has acertado o no con el cambio.
Lo que si te puedo asegurar es que no es bueno perseguir rentabilidades pasadas de corto plazo. Se suele llegar tarde casi siempre y comerse uno toda la reversión a la media.
Si fuera tan fácil como elegir el fondo más rentable en los últimos 3 meses, todos seríamos ricos.

Cartera actualizada a 30 de septiembre

Performance Summary Q3 2020 The MFS Meridian® Funds – Prudent Wealth Fund (ClassI1USD) underperformed the MSCI World Index (net‐div) on a relative basis during the third quarter of 2020. The portfolio'srelative underperformance was attributable to our defensive asset allocation along with index put optionsthat decreased in value as the market rose during the time period.   
Additionally, stock selection and an underweight position in information technology and consumer discretionary detracted from relative performance. Conversely, an underweight position and stock selection in financials contributed to relative performance. Stock selection in real estate and not owning energy also helped relative returns.   

Significant Impacts on Relative Performance
– Top three detractors stocks: During the third quarter of 2020, the top detractors were:
  Not owning computer and personal electronics maker Apple (United States)
 Telecommunications provider KDDI (Japan)
 Not owning electric vehicles designer and manufacturer Tesla (United States)

Significant Impacts on Relative Performance – Top three contributors – stocks:
During the third quarter of 2020, the top contributors were: 
 Real estate company TAG Immobilien (Germany) 
 Miniature role‐playing game manufacturing company Games Workshop (United Kingdom) 
 Specialty insurer Trupanion (United States) 

Other investment impacts on performance – Q3 2020 
Cash The Fund's allocation to cash/cash‐equivalent instruments/short‐term US government securities had a negative impact on relative returns.

 

The portfolio is built from the bottom‐up on the basis of ideas generated by the MFS globalresearch team. The research will also be used tomake an overall determination ofthe risk‐adjusted opportunity in the market as a whole.

The level of equity market exposure will vary depending on the scarcity of compelling ideas. When the portfolio management team perceives the values of individual companies to be lower than the prevailing market viewpoint, portfolio equity exposure can be reduced and assets may be invested in equity index options, cash, and/or corporate and government bonds in an effort to provide attractive risk‐adjusted returns for the portfolio. IndexOptions The portfolio management team ha sthe flexibility to hold put options to provide further downside risk management. The Fund's allocation to index put options detracted from relative results.

 Russell 2000 Index put options: the team's view has been thatUS small capitalisation stocks are overvalued in light of future prospects.
  S&P 500 Index put options: the team's view has been that US stocks are overvalued.
  S&P/ASX 200 Index put options: the team's view has been that the Australian equity marketis overvalued and structurally islikely to come under pressure as China's appetite for commodities moderates.
 Euro Stoxx 50 Index put options: the team's view has been that European large capitalisation stocks are overvalued.

 In our two plus decades of investing experience, we have witnessed many market and economic downturns. While many were highly focused on sectors that over‐expanded – telecoms, housing, and energy immediately come to mind – most recessions had similar outcomes. Cyclical goods‐ producing industries would generally fare worse than stable, service‐oriented sectors. Some areas, like health care and education, were often undisturbed.

However, the current pandemic‐driven down turn has turned that upside down. In near zero‐sum fashion,COVID‐19 related shutdowns have distinctly created winners and losers as consumers have drastically changed spending preferences.   A quick review of detailed economic and company data reveals this phenomenon.
Let's start with some broad spending categories.   
‐ Housing: Arguably, the trend toward urbanization has been stopped, at least temporarily. There is no shortage of anecdotes about the flight from US cities; two large real estate brokers suggest New York City and San Francisco apartment vacancy rates are at peak levels, with Manhattan having perhaps as many as 15,000 empty apartments in August. Rent holidays and eviction moratoria have been granted, leaving landlords and mortgage lenders exposed to impairments. Meanwhile, suburban home listings are being snapped up at ever‐faster rates. US existing home sales surpassed the prior peak set over14 years ago, and nearly70%of homes sold within 1month of listing according to the US real estate brokers 'trade association.

‐ Food: The wallet‐share of at‐home food spending has reversed a multi‐decade downward trend, while restaurant and pub spending have clearly dropped like a stone.Grocers and warehouse clubs are reporting 10‐15%same‐store sales growth as compared to pre‐COVID trends in the low single digits, with some European purveyors of frozen foods even outpacing that growth. In the meantime, Open Table reservation data show year‐over‐ year declines of roughly 50%.

Restaurant profitability is driven by filling tables and turning them over. The pandemic makes that nearly impossible.   ‐ Entertainment: It's all about streaming. Worldwide, Netflix and Disney+ have attracted an estimated 85 million new subscribers year‐to‐date. The latter has also now experimented with premium video on‐demand, with feature film Mulan bypassing theaters. Meanwhile, cinemas and sporting arenas are nearly empty. US film box office receipts declined to zero during the shutdowns, and have barely increased since reopening. Not even Christopher Nolan's widely anticipated Tenet was able to convince film connoisseur store turn.Many theater chains' attendance issolow that closing again may be the loss‐minimizing option. ‐

Transportation: Mass transit is out, cars and bicycles are in. London and New York transit authorities initially reported ridership declines of nearly 90% in the outset of the pandemic, yet recent data shows a recovery only to 60% below year‐ago periods. The finances of both seem perilous. On the other hand, new car sales have increased from the lows, and the performance of the used car market has been even more impressive. Used car prices have risen by over 15% from year‐ago levels. Same trends hold for bicycles. Between the pandemic and tit‐for‐tat US‐China trade disputes, most entry‐level bikes are back‐ordered.  

glimmers of optimism earlier this summer, consultants have estimated one‐third of the commercial aircraft fleet remain sidle. Nearly 100% of cruise ships are anchored in bays around the globe. Car rental companies are facing bankruptcy. Hotels have taken it on the chin too. Occupancy rates in the US and Europe remain stuck below 50%, 30 to 40 percentage points lower from last year. On the bright side, shipments of recreational vehicles in theUS have bounced, gaining nearly 20% from last year. Winners and losers appear in health club spending as well. The likes of Peloton and other home‐based products have thrived, while many large gym club chains have gone bankrupt or are highly distressed.   The list goes on. Behavioral changes abound in areas like pet ownership, online dating and video conferencing. At this point, astute readers will say: of course, none of this is terribly surprising. However, the magnitude of the revenue shifts are massive. Losers are not simply losing, they are getting damaged. In the US alone, the collective 2019 spending on 'loser'sectors – defined as having posted steeper than 40% declines in Q2 – was a whopping $180 billion. Unfortunately, the outlook for these sectors remains challenged. We've learned that virus case counts seems to have a direct and positive relationship with economic re‐opening, on a 4‐6 week lag.
The US faced a second wave in the summer, and Europe is facing one as we write this letter. Winter is coming in the northern hemisphere, sure to be accompanied by the return of seasonal influenza. Without effective COVID‐19 vaccines, we are dubious about a durable recovery of stressed sectors. Certainly, spending on winners like durable goods such as cars, DIY home improvement projects and furniture have benefitted from the pandemic; after all, everyone needs a home office and a comfortable couch to binge watchNetflix. 

We would expect the burst of goods demand will fade – you only need one new office chair or recreational vehicle (RV), after all.    We fear that the pandemic was like a large stone thrown into a still pond. The ripples are still radiating through the economy, and the secondary impacts are unknowable.Governments have activated both fiscal and monetary policy tools. Indeed, government largesse has filled the gap in many families income stream. Furlough programs, expanded unemployment insurance and forgivable business loans are among the tools employed by policy makers. These are stop‐gap measures; government transfer payments have forestalled the knock‐on impacts of business closures and bankruptcies, but eventually businesses will need to stand or fall on their own. Until then, as a recent Economist article observed, we have the 90% economy. 

In MFS'fixed income parlance, this impact is an economic hole. Every day of sub‐trend growth digs the hole a bit deeper. For companies, this figurative hole eventually becomes an actual hole in balance sheets. As revenues plunged, companies faced significant calls on liquidity. On one side, the financial engineering of working capital flows reversed, as companies paid suppliers as well as reverse‐factoring lenders for inventory and raw materials long since converted into revenue. On the other side, fixed costs still need to be paid. Profits become losses. Cash flows reverse, and companies use more cash than they generate. Encouraged, and in many instances financed, by central banks, the debt markets have funded the economic hole. Even casual observers of fixed income markets are well aware of the massive increase in debt issuance so far in2020. Sovereigns and corporates, developed and emerging, financial and industrial, it seems that every market has been flooded with more paper. If high debt levels were a concern pre‐COVID, and they were to us, the ramp higher in indebtedness in the past six months has been breathtaking. Around the world, fiscal deficits have ballooned, with the US, UK and Japan leading the way at 14‐15% of GDP, while the EU reports a significant increase to nearly 10% of GDP. In the US and Eurozone, much of this debt issuance will have been purchased by the Fed and ECB, respectively. So much for debt monetization being an emerging market occurrence. Indeed, totalUS government debt‐to‐GDP (including federal, GSE, state and local borrowing) will end this year at over 200%. Corporates are notfaring any better. Total non‐financial business debt as a percent ofUS GDP has skyrocketed to 90%. The prior post‐GFC peak was slightly less than 75%. Total issuance in US Investment Grade bonds totals $1.7 trillion thus far, with monthly issuance records having been set consecutively from April through September this year. 

While some of this borrowing was prudent liquidity management, and may be repaid shortly as fears of capital market closures abate, some of the debt funded operating losses and will clog balance sheets for years to come. Most observers have been surprised by the ratings agencies patience with many investment grade companies sporting debt/EBITDA ratios in excess of 4x. We'll see how long the quiescence lasts. To our sober eyes, we are skeptical that the pandemic's solution is to heap more debt onto an already over‐leveraged economy, but clearly equity markets disagreed in the third quarter.Despite a wobble in September, the MSCIWorld index generated a return of near 8%, and most major equity indices gained roughly 50% from late March lows. At an individual stock level, the quarterly gains seem more evenly distributed, as mega‐cap US tech stocks suffered a mild retracement in September. Perhaps investors are preparing for more active government oversight and regulation post the US elections.

Aquí la carta trimestral del fondo: https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/products/portcommentary/gcf_portcommentary_q.pdf

Alguien lleva este fondo que veo se comenta poco? Alguna opinión?

Yo estoy valorando seriamente la idea de entrar en él. Veo que lo tienen en Bankinter con la clase I1, que tiene un TER de solo 0.95, mucho mas bajo que la clase A1 que supera el 2%.
He tenido durante 5 años el Metavalor Global, hasta que lo he vendido este mes, puesto que no se recuperó del varapalo del Covid. En cambio, el Prudent Wealth se recuperó enseguida e incluso ha acabado en positivo muchos años de caídas bursátiles. Si no lo he contratado aun es porque lo estoy comparando con el Baelo y el Troyan, a ver por cual me decido.

Curioso, pero al intentar hacer un traspaso a este fondo anuncia que está cerrado a compras. Misterio.

Quizás se deba, a qué podría ser la clase institucional.

Cierto. En Bankinter está cerrado. En Self Bank se puede acceder a la clase A1, más cara, pero no a la I1.... Tratándose de un fondo defensivo, no sé si compensa pagar comisiones tan altas... Nuestro gozo en un pozo.