Va ahora una buena del WSJ
--------------------------------------------------------
Will Europe Really Break the Spanish Sovereign-Banking Loop?
---------------
The signal achievement of the European Union’s much-heralded summit last week was an agreement to allow the euro zone’s bailout fund to rescue Spanish banks directly.
Up to that moment, the bloc’s method–in Greece, Ireland and Portugal–was to lend money to the troubled government and tell it to deal with its banks. That led to the dreaded sovereign-bank loop: weak banks dragging down weak sovereigns dragging down weak banks… The summit agreement was meant to cut it.
But some comments out today are calling into question just how cleanly that loop will be severed. Our colleague Matina Stevis reports on Dow Jones Newswires that a senior EU official said today the ultimate responsibility for the banks would actually fall with Spain, and not the European Stability Mechanism. Writes Matina:
“I need to make clear what the ESM can do: the ESM is able–if one were to decide ever on such an instrument–to take an equity share in a bank. But only against full guarantee by the sovereign concerned,” the official said. “What you have is that it cuts out the effect of that loan on the debt-to-GDP ratio of the sovereign. Does it still remain the risk of the sovereign or [does it go to] the ESM? It remains the risk of the sovereign.”
Those comments undermine the euro zone’s statement last week that it would . The statement said:
We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. …. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB, for banks in the euro area the ESM could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly.
The statement said nothing about Spain’s guaranteeing the ESM’s recapitalization. We’ll see how this develops, but it is an essential point.
Many in financial markets have assumed the ESM would recapitalize banks on its own–by giving them cash or high-quality bonds in return for equity stakes (or some sort of hybrid instrument, like contingent-convertible notes) in the banks. That way, the whole of the euro zone, and not just Spain, would bear the risk of the banks’ rescue.
Indeed, this mutualization of responsibility has been viewed as an early step on the path to the broader risk-sharing inside the currency union that, many observers believe, is vital for its survival.
But what the senior official describes is less of a bold step and more of an exercise in accounting footwork. Yes, structuring the aid as a direct recapitalization does avoid the need for Spain to incur an actual liability to the bailout fund (and pay interest on its borrowing), but requiring that Spain indemnify the fund against losses just saddles the country with a contingent liability instead of an actual one.
Follow @charlesforelle on Twitter.
--------------------------------------------
La impresión que da es que le van a apretar las tuercas a mariano a tope para que reduzca el gasto público y se garanticen los pagos de España y una vez que vean que España no puede hundir a la banca extranjera patadón en el trasero y salida del Euro S2