Farmas USA

TPTX 
Los números actualizados (y pesimistas) de b2k:

I slashed all my numbers on all their early programs for MET, RET and ALK. This is my dooms day valuation and its higher than the current stock price which makes me very comfortable to keep buying here. Just their lead drug Repotrectinib and the $1.1 billion cash make up this value.

  

Turning Point Therapeutics

Repotrectinib

Trident-1 clinical trial
Exp-1: ROS1 TKI Naive NSCLC (Breakthrough Therapy)
ROS1 + NSCLC = 6,000 patients in US and EU5

Competitors:
Crizontinib = ROS1 + NSCLC ORR of 72%
Lorlatinib = ROS1 + NSCLC ORR of 76%
Entrectinib = ROS 1 + NSCLC ORR of 77%

ROS1 TKI Naive data:
Confirmed Phase 1 and Phase 2 confirmed ORR of 91% with over 30 months of duration of response.
Side Effects dizziness mostly Grade 1
Discontinuation Rate 9%

ROS1 + NSCLC
6,000 patient in US and EU5
Give them 50% market share = 3,000
@ $100,000 price = $300 million
* 3 for phase 2 data = $900 million value

Exp-2, Exp-3 and Exp-4 for Prior ROS1 TKI
Exp-2 Prior ROS1 TKI with platinum chemo therapy ORR 39%
Exp-3 For 2 prior ROS1 TKI without chemo therapy ORR 30%
Exp-4 Prior ROS1 TKI without chemo therapy ORR 38%
G2032R resistance mutations showed ORR of 50%
Side Effects dizziness mostly Grade 1
Discontinuation Rate 11%

I included this into the numbers for ROS1 + TKI naive NSCLC as I would think most patient would try this first an it would be used in first line TKI.

Trident-1 clinical trial
Exp-5 TRK Naive NSCLC
Exp-6 TRK Prior TKI (Breakthrough Therapy)
NTRK + NSCLC = 4,000 patient in US and EU5

Competitors:
Selitrectinib = NTRK + NSCLC
Larotrectinib = NTRK + NSCLC
Entrectinib = NTRK + NSCLC

NTRK + NSCLC data:
NTRK + NSCLC
4,000 patient in US and EU5
Give them 20% market share = 800
@ $200,000 price = $160 million
* 2 for phase 2 data = $320 million value

Elzovantinib

Shield-1 Clinical Trial
MET altered NSCLC = 13,000 in US and EU5
MET amplified Gastric Cancer = 2,000 in US and EU5

Competitors:
Capmatinib = 40% ORR in Naive NSCLC and 30% ORR in prior TKI
Crizotinib = 32% ORR
Savolitinib = 47.5% ORR exon 14 skipping

NTRK + NSCLC and GEJ data:
MET TKI Naive NSCLC had ORR of 36%
MET TKI Naive GEJ had ORR of 33%
MET prior TKI had ORR of 0% with 53% CBR

Side Effects dizziness 65% mostly Grade 1 and Grade 2
2 Grade 3 dose limiting Vertigo
Peripheral Edema 20% up to Grade 3
Discontinuation Rate 9.5%

MET altered NSCLC:
13,000 patient in US and EU5
Give them 10% market share = 1,300
@ $100,000 price = $130 million
* 1 for phase 1 data = $130 million value

MET amplified GEJ:
2,000 patient in US and EU5
Give them 10% market share = 200
@ $100,000 price = $20 million
* 1 for phase 1 data = $20 million value

TPX-046

Sword-1 Clinical Trial
RET + NSCLC = 4,000
RET + Thyroid = 4,000

Competitors:
Selpercatinib = 64% ORR in TKI Naive NSCLC and 69% ORR in TKI Naive MTC
Pralsetinib = 57% ORR in TKI Naive NSCLC and 55% ORR in TKI Naive MTC

RET + NSCLC data:
TKI Naive
Prior TKI
RET + Thyroid data:
TKI Naive
Prior TKI

Side effects dizziness mostly Grade 1 and Grade 2
Discontinuation Rate of 10%

RET + NSCLC:
4,000 patient in US and EU5
Give them 10% market share = 400
@ $200,000 price = $80 million
* 5 for partial phase 1 data = $40 million value

RET + MTC:
4,000 patient in US and EU5
Give them 10% market share = 400
@ $200,000 price = $80 million
* 5 for partial phase 1 data = $40 million value

TPX-0131

Forge-1 Clinical Trail
ALK + NSCLC = 11,000 in US and EU5

Competitors:
Alectinib = 40% ORR is ALK resistant NSCLC
Brigatinib =
Ceritinib =
Lorlatinib =
Crizotinib =

ALK + NSCLC prior TKI data
ALK + NSCLC:
11,000 patient in US and EU5
Give them 10% market share = 1,100
@ $150,000 price = $165 million
* 10% for no phase 1 data = $16.5 million value

ALLO 
Buen resumen de la situación y lo que significa para las terapias génicas:

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/trial-results/allogene-raises-spectre-car-t-nightmare

Y un post de jomasi08 en IV:

This is not about Crispr or not crispr
All companies do double strand breaks except BEAM.
So BEAM is the best? Well, they can't insert a gene and this is a big contra.
Companies affected:
NTLA CRSP EDIT SGMO ALLO CLLS
Companies that have reduced double strand breaks but still they cause it (35 times less occurrence)
CRBU
Companies that don't cause them but they can't insert
BEAM

Right now i see the gene editing space extremely risky.
I see it has A TON of risk due mutations, and also there it isn't a system that has not caveats. Probably will be Prime, but then you need delivery cause molecule is huge.

Also space faces a lot of competition of RNAi and mRNA, but they don't have delivery either.

To me the final solution will be: (decade away)

a gene editing like Prime + a control switch to prevent the molecule being produced constantly. So activation by pill
or
RNAi or mRNA with delivery tech

Before that, i think mutation and cancer will spur and sector will burst with a lot of bumps to solve.
I think CRBU deserves a green card for now though
And IPSC and SANA a mention to avoid ALLO problems

Qué nivel, este foro es para bioingenieros.

TPTX pesimistas o no, a el se le nota contento y asegura que seguirá comprando. También es verdad que con pequeñas modificaciones (supongo) ha actualizado a 55,17 el precio obj. Ya estamos casi 20% por encima del cierre de ayer

El rendimiento del sector (XBI) comparado con el SP500 y el XLV (todo salud diversificado y grande) es el peor y el más largo hasta ahora:

https://twitter.com/_B_I_O_T_E_C_H_/status/1446789904541888516?s=20

¿Qué problema le veis?

Yo lo que veo es ayer cerró por encima de 5 al final de la sesión y con volumen... pero debe de haber algo que se me escapa.

AMRN

si no lo dicen por el stock ...

martilo en semanal y por lo que veo se va a enfrentar a la bajista #1 dentro de poco, ya toca pelearla otra vez ...

AMRN

Nada, es una coña con nuestro querido compañero Framus.

Le calificamos, con mucho cariño y amor, como gafe cada vez que decide entrar en AMRN. 🤭🤭🤭🤭