how does this affect payment to WAHUQ holders?
First, I have trouble with Rosen's announced plan about equity getting WMMRC. Let me explain. If the estate was going to give equity WMMRC (valued at 160m), how would this have affected the WAHUQ holders? At the time, we know that equity was slightly out of the money, but even further out if contract rate was still part of that plan. So, without that 160m value, the WAHUQ holders may have only received around 25-30% of face (around $8-10), but may have received some debt or equity stake in the reorganized company due to the shortfall. Could Rosen and SNHs shaft all WAHUQ holders by giving something to equity to end the IT allegations?
So here we are again. Now, in mediation, we expect that we are in the same situation, but in a much stronger position with the Judge's opinion regarding these IT allegations.
If SNHs agree to give up claim to WMMRC, this directly affects the claims of innocent WAHUQ holders as this money is being shifted to a lower class. There is a catch to this possibility based on the Judge's opinion. I am pretty sure she stated that any money recovered from SNHs either through disallowance or actual money received from SNHs would flow to the estate first for distribution. The problem with this is that the SNHs actually would be paying themselves unless they had their WAHUQ claims disallowed. For example, if the SNHs decided to pay 500m to the estate to settle the IT allegations, that money would actually go to WAHUQ first before reaching equity - SNHs paying themselves. This cannot work!
Thinking more about this. I anticipate that the Judge (if she had to rule on this IT thing) would, at a minimum, disallow all WAHUQ claims by the SNHs. It is the only way that makes sense so that the money will flow down the waterfall to equity. Of course, this means that WMMRC would go to equity and innocent WAHUQ holders would not be harmed (getting 100% minus how the contractual subordination plays out which could mean 100% all the way down to 0%).
We have no idea just what actual value is at risk from the SNHs, whether it is 1b or several billion based on timing of purchases, profitability of trades, etc. We can be sure that their ownership of WAHUQ carry the most risk. We can be sure that there are many other questionable trades that have been made. We can also be sure that they negotiated for their own benefit and not the estates such as the shady deal to receive 50m for TPS securities they held. EC and Susman team should not settle for anything less than full WAHUQ disallowance AND some additional cash payment. These combined should be no less than 750m in value IMO.
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