The motives for all the parties to settle this case are many and, in the case of the defendants (JPM and FDIC) they may include a variety of potential criminal charges.
..and, of course, there are those potentialy embarrasing political moments lurking in the background (courts and congressional hearings) for some very important officials in an off season election year..
..not to mention an extremely well focused and effective equity class in this case..most of whom are likely to intensify their activities with an exponentially greater focus without a favorable settlement..and even more so "WITH" a favorable summary judgement.
Those who simply train their thoughts on the raw numbers or precedents to predict the beneficiaries in this case should, I suggest, take a far wider view and weigh all the attendant implications of failure by the parties to settle.
Limited numbers versus claims is a problem..but that's it..a problem...Problems can be solved..In fact, in this case the solutions are not difficult to imagine in any given scenario.
It's anyone's guess how this will turn out...but to suggest equity will be left out in the cold again, based on precedent, just seems very unlikely to me..
There are far too many pitfalls in that instance..too many gold cufflinks and huge organizations, including the US Government, stand to take major hits if things get out of hand..
Off season elections can become very nasty...politically problematic at best for politicians and public officials at times like this...
And then there are those more than 5,000 forthcoming Department of Justice indictments..immunized testimony..nightly news..cable tv..the internet.
No one wants to be seen ramming another shaft into shareholders while a few more black ties walk away with solid gold accounts from this deal...especially as a reward for the theft of a bank with the help of a federal agency assigned to protect the interests of taxpayers, account holders and investors as well..
Debts can easily be restructured..Shares can be exchanged and termed out on incremental timelines..problems can be solved.. and old animosities can be ameliorated suffice to satisfy the parties.
Otherwise, it seems the federal district judge in the Delaware court will render her decision Friday at 11:AM...I wouldn't want to be either of the parties if it comes to that.
This judge's record does not lend itself to timidity in the fair application of her understanding of the law...everyone may be surprised by her ruling.