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Valaris DS-12
The "restructuring season" opened by Diamond Offshore (OTCPK:DOFSQ) will soon be continued by Valaris (VAL), which has just filed a Form 8-K in which it stated that it decided not to make interest payments due on June 1, 2020, and received waivers under the revolving credit facility in order to continue negotiations with creditors.
Valaris stated:
The company has elected to enter into the 30-day grace period, which expires on July 1, 2020. As of May 29, 2020, the company had approximately $238 million in cash, in addition to available borrowing capacity under its revolving credit facility. The company continues to have discussions with its lenders and bondholders regarding the terms of a potential comprehensive restructuring of its indebtedness".
Valaris finished the first quarter with $185 million of cash on the balance sheet and $1.3 billion available under the credit facility. The company has likely raised some more cash from the credit facility in order to protect its operations in an unprecedented environment caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
In the first quarter, the company recorded a negative operating cash flow of $204 million while the most recent fleet status report painted a very bleak picture. In this light, the decision to skip the interest payments and speed up the negotiations with creditors is logical - Valaris cannot continue its operations with the current debt load.
The key intrigue in the Valaris story is how the company can perform its restructuring in order to continue its business. Valaris was born in a merger between Ensco and Rowan. Both companies were not small, and the resulting company is huge. This is the opposite of what you'd like to see in the current offshore drilling market environment. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, contract activity has almost evaporated, especially in the floater space. As a result, dayrate estimates have trended down, and Bassoe's dayrate estimate for a six-gen drillship is already below $200,000.
In such conditions, Valaris will need a capital infusion in addition to the equitization of debt. Otherwise, the company may have trouble managing its fleet. The problem is that it will be very hard to find an investor who is ready to commit capital to the industry which has been decimated by the coronavirus crisis.
For example, Loews (
L) has apparently decided not to put money into Diamond Offshore in which it had a majority stake. As a result, Diamond Offshore entered bankruptcy with no plan, and it remains to be seen whether such a plan will be presented soon.
For Valaris, the need for additional capital is a huge obstacle on a way to a reorganization plan. Frankly, I do not believe that the company will be able to operate in its current form with just $238 million of cash even if all debt was equitized and Valaris did not have to pay any interest. In the first quarter, the company's revenues totaled $457 million while contract drilling operating expenses were $476 million. This means that the company was losing money before interest expenses, taxes, or general & administrative expenses kicked in.
Somehow, the company will have to find a size that will allow it to live through the acute phase of the crisis which has just started for the offshore drilling industry. Valaris has already moved to cold stack some floaters and scrap others, and it is highly likely that additional scrapping/cold stacking activity will be required to cut costs to the bone.
Valaris is a huge company, and the results of its restructuring will have a significant impact on the whole industry. The restructuring process is set to be very challenging, and I have doubts that Valaris and its creditors will be able to come up with a plan by July 1, 2020.
I expect that Valaris will file for bankruptcy by that time regardless of whether it can reach a consensus with its creditors or not. Currently, Valaris has more than $70 million of market capitalization - this money will not be left on the table for the common equity since the company needs equitization of debt and additional capital infusion. The recent upside in oil prices (and the potential upside above $40 for Brent) will not change anything since offshore drilling depends on contracts rather than oil prices, and it will take months to reach the dayrate bottom as the market will be flooded by those rigs who roll off their contracts.
In short, common equity is set to get zero while the company has a challenging task to save itself as a business.