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Técnica para saber si el Mercado esta Sobrevalorado, Market Timing
Leyendo la página de Hussman Funds me he encontrado con este texto y os lo he querido compartir, ya que creo es bastante útil.
The following set of conditions is one way to capture the basic "overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields" syndrome: 1) S&P 500 more than 8% above its 52 week (exponential) average 2) S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low 3) Shiller P/E greater than 18 4) 10-year Treasury yield higher than 6 months earlier 5) Advisory bullishness > 47%, with bearishness < 27%http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101213.htm Históricamente estas condiciones se han repetido en las siguientes fechas:
--December 1972 - January 1973 (followed by a 48% collapse over the next 21 months) --August - September 1987 (followed by a 34% plunge over the following 3 months) --July 1998 (followed abruptly by an 18% loss over the following 3 months) --July 1999 (followed by a 12% market loss over the next 3 months) --January 2000 (followed by a spike 10% loss over the next 6 weeks) --March 2000 (followed by a spike loss of 12% over 3 weeks, and a 49% loss into 2002) --July 2007 (followed by a 57% market plunge over the following 21 months) --January 2010 (followed by a 7% "air pocket" loss over the next 4 weeks) --April 2010 (followed by a 17% market loss over the following 3 months) --December 2010Espero os sea de ayuda.
Se habla mucho de depositar confianza, pero nadie dice qué interés te pagan
