Así van los Spreads de los CDS de España y Protugal (risk premium)

El mercado ha subido gracias a un progreso en la reunión sostenida por Merkel-Sarkozy. Parece que Alemania ha avanzado hacia una posición mas acorde con Francia y el ECB, es decir, NO a una restructuración suave. El modelo utilizado por la Iniciativa Viena en Europa de Este será la base para el nuevo paquete.

Aún quedan sin resolver:

1.- No sabemos cómo la UE va a incentivar a los tenedores de bonos para que refinancien la deuda.

2.- El actual gobierno de Grecia no tiene mayoría

Sinceramente, no creo que arreglen nada.

Grecia tiene los dos pies fuera del euro.

EL problema es que van muy despacio. Si van a actuar que lo hagan rápido, no importa ya mucho la decisión sino la incertidumbre en la que tienen a los mercados.

Saludos

Italy is the eurozone’s third-biggest economy and has the largest amount of debt outstanding. Until recently Italy was regarded as having decoupled from the rest of the periphery, as implied by its CDS spreads. But that has changed over the past week, and the widening in spreads has caught the attention of EU decision makers. Herman Van Rompuy was reported to have called an emergency meeting to discuss Italy ahead of today’s meeting of finance ministers. Austria’s finance minister confirmed that Italy was on the agenda for tomorrow’s Ecofin meeting. Apart from the country’s perennially high debt levels, the group will no doubt be concerned by the political instability that has flared up in recent weeks. PM Silvio Berlusconi has publicly criticised the finance minister Giulio Tremonti, himself embroiled in a corruption scandal. The Italian economy is sclerotic and badly in need for reform. Damaging internal divisions within government are the last thing it needs. On the plus side Italy’s deficit is relatively small and its banks have managed to raise funds from the capital markets. Debt auctions tomorrow and Thursday will be closely watched to see if the government’s access remains intact.