Re: ¿Los buenos fondos mixtos o una ilusión de marketing?
En mi opinión, a Alemania, país eminentemente exportador, le interesa un euro bajo para potenciar sus exportaciones. Y en la pugna entre las medidas que quiere tomar Draghi y las medidas que quiere Alemania, hay mucho de toma y daca.
De momento esta es la visión de Merrill Lynch:
+ Due to the pressure on the ECB to do QE, the rebound in US interest rates is underwhelming relative to the increase in stocks
+ US credit benefits from the rise in stocks while interest rate risks remains subdued. Longer term we remain more cautious…
+ …as interest rates go up and we enter the next phase of positive correlation between interest rates and credit spreads.
+ Spreads vs. rates: Stocks and interest rates continued to rebound this week as more US data – and corporate earnings – confirmed that the US economy is resilient to global weakness. However, as European economic weakness puts more pressure on the ECB to do QE, the rebound in US interest rates is underwhelming compared with the increase in stocks. That provides a continued favorable environment for US credit, as spreads benefit from the rise in stocks while interest rate risks remains subdued. Thus, while acknowledging that we are approaching the end of this trade, we retain our tactical long stance on US IG credit.
See: One step forward, two steps back. http://research1.ml.com/C?q=k3sjRmrAE9llCR4r29mTOg
That means we continue to expect in the short term negative correlation between interest rates and credit spreads, as Treasuries catch up with the reality of strong US economic data. However, this is merely the recovery phase from the early October sell-off. Longer term we remain more cautious on credit, as interest rates go up and we enter the next phase of positive correlation between interest rates and credit spreads.
Saludos