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Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

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Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
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#131025

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Yo veo a NGD doblando sin que practicamente el oro haga nada. Sin embargo para doblar Barrick el oro debe irse a 2800.

Llevo a NGD desde 2018, comprando y vendiendo. Algo que se repite los ultimos años es dar noticias regulares a mitad de año para los dos ultimos trimestres sorprender al mercado con noticias mejor de lo esperadas. Esta claro que NGD es un chicharro, pero no puede pasar de 2,40 a 1,00 solo porque el % de Au en un sector de la mina es ligeramente menor de lo esperado.

nGD pasó de 0,5 a 2,4 rapidaente y sin la necesidad de que el oro se disparase. En mi opinion NGD a 1$ es mejor compra que Barrick a precios actuales. 
#131026

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

BABA en semanal por supuesto está bajista.
BABA en semanal por supuesto está bajista.
#131027

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Parece que los futuros del uranio se animan...(grafica 5 años).
#131028

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

En diario lo veo más positivo con divergencias alcistas. El peligro lo veo si pierde los 140.
En diario lo veo más positivo con divergencias alcistas. El peligro lo veo si pierde los 140.
#131029

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés


Ayer el bueno de bill publico resultados de half 2021. Se han vendido agilent haciendole practicamente un 120% desde la primera compra de hace dos años, era la segunda posicion con 1,7b y destinaran el cash a comprar UMG, 2,5b que sera cerca del 25% de la cartera. Siguen cabreados por el enorme descuento al que cotizan.

 The Board pays close attention to the discount to NAV at which PSH’s Public Shares currently trade. The discount as of August 17, 2021, of 25.9% has not materially changed from 24.7% as of March 23, 2021, when I last wrote to you.iv The Board holds the view that PSH shares are undervalued at current levels and believes that continued positive NAV performance, increased awareness of PSH, and the associated incremental demand for PSH shares should narrow the discount over time. 
Y sobre UMG para el que le interese....
 Universal Music Group (“UMG”) The most signifi cant investment of the year is PSH and affi liates’ recent acquisition of 7.1% of Universal Music Group from Vivendi. UMG was PSTH’s initial business combination target, but regulatory hurdles prevented the transaction from being consummated. As a result, the board of PSTH exercised its right to assign the contract to the Pershing Square Funds. We accepted the assignment, committing to purchase a minimum of 5% and up to a maximum of 10% of UMG by mid-September, an option which we intend to exercise with the help of a new co-investment vehicle, Pershing Square VII. PSH and affi liates have agreed to pay PSTH’s transaction costs in connection with the UMG transaction, totaling approximately $25 million, and assume an indemnity that PSTH had previously entered into with Vivendi. With the purchase of the initial 7.1% stake, PSH and affi liates have now completed the assumption of the indemnity and the transaction costs, which positions PSTH to immediately pursue a new business combination. The Vivendi indemnity was designed to protect it from potential liabilities in connection with the distribution of UMG shares to PSTH shareholders, and PSTH’s redemption tender off er. Since the UMG share distribution will now not take place, and the redemption tender off er has been withdrawn, we do not believe that there is any potential liability to Vivendi or to PSH and affi liates in assuming this indemnity obligation. Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements 7 I would encourage those who did not have an opportunity to attend our UMG webcast on June 23, 2021, to review our PowerPoint presentation on the company, which can be found at www.PSTontine.com. UMG management is having a Capital Markets Day on August 25th if you would like to learn more. With the transformation of the music industry from the physical sale of recordings and downloads to streaming, the music business has been transformed from a business in decline to a rapidly growing industry where all participants benefi t from the global growth in music streaming subscribers. Spotify and some of the largest tech companies in the world – including Apple, Google, and Amazon, as well as hundreds of other streaming companies, a.k.a., digital service providers or DSPs – are aggressively competing to grow their streaming subscriber bases. Their large and growing base of subscribers and the streaming royalties they generate are benefi ting all participants in the music ecosystem including artists and songwriters, record labels, publishers, and the DSPs themselves. The transition of software from a boxed product to a downloaded one, to software in the cloud, or so-called Software as a Service (“SaaS”), is an apt analogy for the music’s industry transformation from CDs to downloads to streaming, which enables you to listen to 60 million songs on your smart phone, smart speaker, watch or other device. This new economic model for the record labels and publishers can now be best thought of as owning a royalty on the global growth of music streaming. Streaming is faster-growing, more predictable, minimally capital intensive, and more profi table than the physical or download recorded music business. Music has also become an essential complement to social media as apps like Tiktok, Facebook, Snap, and others who have added music to increase user engagement. Music is also essential to exercise apps and products like Peloton. While these apps in many cases have only recently begun paying royalties for music, these apps will become large sources of revenues for music companies over time. The music industry’s transformation had been largely invisible to Wall Street until Warner Music Group (“WMG”), the number three player after UMG and Sony, began trading publicly on the NASDAQ last year. We believe that investors have just begun to appreciate the change in industry dynamics, and as a result, have not yet given proper recognition to the value of WMG or UMG, which is currently a subsidiary of Vivendi SE, a French media conglomerate. It is within this context that we found the opportunity to purchase a large stake in UMG to be extremely attractive. UMG is the number one company in the industry by market share with a 32% global market share in recorded music. UMG has a world-class management team led by Sir Lucian Grainge who has spent his entire career in the business. Under Vivendi’s ownership and Lucian’s leadership, UMG has increased its strong market position by investing to build a global presence in 180 markets around the world. As a result, it is well-positioned to participate in the global growth of music streaming, which will be increasingly driven by demand from the emerging markets. UMG’s management strength and long-term investment strategy are refl ected in its industry-leading fi nancial performance which include accelerating double-digit revenue growth (up 26% in Q2 2021), and its 21% compounded operating income (“EBITA”) growth, about twice that of WMG, over the last four calendar years, which accelerated in the fi rst half of 2021 to 34%. UMG will become a public company by the end of the third quarter when Vivendi distributes 60% of the stock to its shareholders in a highly anticipated distribution. UMG will have a nearly net-debt-free balance sheet when it becomes a public company. Unlike WMG which is controlled by Access Industries with super-voting stock, UMG shareholders will have one vote per share and an independent board, no longer controlled by Vivendi. Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements 8 We believe that the price that we are paying for UMG of about 21 times calendar year 2021 operating income (EBITA), or less than 19 times our estimate of 2022 operating income (EBITA), is a highly attractive price for a business of this quality and long-term growth potential. UMG will be the largest investment in our portfolio by a substantial margin. We size investments based on our estimate of the probability of our suff ering a permanent loss of capital compared to the opportunity for potential gain. At the price we are paying for UMG, we believe the risk of permanent loss is minimal, and the opportunity for long-term gain to be both highly probable and unusually large compared to other opportunities. In other words, we believe that UMG has the potential to be one of our most successful long-term investments. 
#131031

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

En breves, el 25% de PSH será UMG comprado a un multiplo menor que al que cotiza WMG siendo mucha mejor empresa. Además, hay que tener en cuenta el 25% de descuento al que cotiza. Teniendo el buen trackrecord que tiene, deberia cotizar a NAV o con algo de prima, bajo mi punto de vista. Volveran a recomprar acciones seguro, ahora han tenido que tener caja para la compra de UMG y necesitaran para los FPA de la SPARC o PSTH, ademas por temas de liquidez y la incorporacion al FTSE tampoco les interesaba. Sin duda, volvera a NAV y nada más que por ahí ya es un 30%.- 
#131032

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

El descuento con respecto al NAV que dan ellos sale más bajo que el que se puede calcular en su web. ¿Por qué?
Otra. En general, todos los holding cotizan con 20% de descuento para tener en cuenta el latrocinio sobre la plusvalía de las agencias gubernamentales de confiscación de la riqueza ajena. Cuando Truñackmann habla de 25% de descuento, ¿está teniendo en cuenta esto...?
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