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Captain Cook 02/03/25 21:03
Ha respondido al tema Carteras de fondos de inversión Rankianos para el 2025: análisis, opiniones y consultas
A corto, ojalá que con permiso del mercado, se pueda poner en precio alguna acción de la "lista de deseos."Yo especulo con que finalmente habrá "deal" en Ucrania y que será en breve y que a medio plazo habrá levantamiento de sanciones y normalización de las relaciones comerciales con Rusia.El rifirrafe del despacho oval, a medio plazo, en mi opinión para el inversor es solo show, ruido. Pero el sr Trump no para quieto con sus bombas de racimo a los mercados, lo van a nombrar la Virgen de los Traders, ahora anuncio sobre Criptos (nueva bomba de hace un par de horas): https://www.elmundo.es/economia/empresas/2025/03/02/67c4a11ae85eceaa608b4570.html 
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Captain Cook 02/03/25 19:53
Ha respondido al tema Carteras de fondos de inversión Rankianos para el 2025: análisis, opiniones y consultas
Añadir lo siguiente: ​En 2024, España registró 322.034 nacimientos, lo que supuso un incremento del 0,4% respecto al año anterior.Si el Estado aportara 34.000 euros por cada nacimiento en España, el coste total anual sería de aproximadamente 10.949 millones de euros.​Este gasto representaría alrededor del 5,6% del límite de gasto no financiero establecido para 2025, que es de 195.353 millones de euros.​11 mil millones € aportados a un plan de capitalización individual para la jubilación de cada español nacido en 2025 serían perfectamente asumibles (EMHO), reduciendo del Presupuesto otras partidas por igual o mayor valor, que son directamente despilfarro o de bajo valor. 
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Captain Cook 02/03/25 19:24
Ha respondido al tema Carteras de fondos de inversión Rankianos para el 2025: análisis, opiniones y consultas
Hola, esta no es la respuesta a tu pregunta. Pero pensando en el plan de ahorro de los peques, le he preguntado a Grok3 que me escriba un texto, con tono desenfadado, explicando cuánto habría que poner en una fiesta de bautizo para que el niño/niña pueda jubilarse con una pensión mensual de 3.000 € (ajustada a la inflación) a los 67 años, si se invierte y se compone a largo plazo. Esto es lo que me dice Grok3: El Plan de Pensiones del Día del Bautizo: Un Futuro Asegurado desde el Primer DíaImagina esto: estás en la fiesta de bautizo de tu peque, todos están celebrando, y de paso, ¡recaudamos fondos para que tenga una jubilación de lujo! La idea es que, cuando el niño o la niña llegue a los 67 años, pueda disfrutar de 3.000 euros al mes (ajustados a la inflación) durante 25 años. Y todo empieza con lo que juntemos ese día tan especial.Reglas y Asunciones del RetoPara que esto funcione, necesitamos unas reglas claras y algunas suposiciones razonables. Aquí van:Objetivo: Que el peque reciba 3.000 euros mensuales (en valor real, ajustado a cómo suben los precios) desde los 67 años y durante 25 años.  Inflación: Asumimos que los precios suben un 2,5% al año. En 67 años, 3.000 euros no valdrán lo mismo que hoy, así que hay que tenerlo en cuenta.  Rentabilidad: El dinero que recaudemos lo invertiremos y esperamos que crezca un 8% al año (CAGR, o sea, una media anual compuesta).  Cuánto necesitamos: Hice números y, para lograrlo, hay que juntar 34.000 euros en el bautizo.No te preocupes, ¡lo vamos a repartir entre todos los invitados!Esquema de Contribuciones: ¡Todos a Colaborar!He pensado en un esquema sencillo basado en quiénes están más cerca del peque. Aquí va la propuesta:Padres: Nosotros, como los que más責任 (responsabilidad) tenemos, pondríamos 7.000 euros cada uno. Total: 14.000 euros.  Abuelos: Los abuelos, que siempre están ahí para malcriar, podrían aportar 5.000 euros cada uno. Si hay cuatro, eso son 20.000 euros.  Tíos: Los tíos, que quieren quedar bien con su sobrino o sobrina, podrían dar 1.000 euros cada uno. Con cuatro tíos, serían 4.000 euros.  Amigos y familia lejana: Para los demás invitados, una contribución simbólica de 200 euros por persona. Si vienen diez, suman 2.000 euros.Total: 14.000 + 20.000 + 4.000 + 2.000 = 40.000 euros. ¡Nos sobran 6.000 euros por si acaso o para un extra en el futuro!Un Toque Personal para la FiestaEsto no es solo un plan financiero, ¡es una forma de hacer la fiesta de bautizo inolvidable! Imagina a los invitados diciendo: “Oye, este bautizo no solo tiene buen pastel, también asegura la jubilación del siglo XXI”. Y cuando mi peque cobre su pensión en 2092, dirá: "Gracias, familia, por ahorrar por mí mientras yo solo babeaba". Será la sensación del asilo, presumiendo: "¡Mi plan de pensiones empezó antes que mis dientes!". Así que, foreros, si os invitan a un bautizo así, ¡aflojad la mosca! Es por una buena causa… y por un futuro lleno de cafés caros y risas.
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Captain Cook 22/02/25 19:20
Ha respondido al tema El Bar de los Pufforeros. Inversión de la A a la Z: Fondos, ETF, planes de pensiones, acciones, metales preciosos, etc
Hola Gaspar, Otras fuentes dicen que, en algunos vehículos, sí que Pabrai tiene un track record mejor que el índice SP500, aunque es difícil de contrastar dado que parece ser que no todos los vehículos que gestiona tienen mismas obligaciones de transparencia. Esto es lo que dice Grok3:Mohnish Pabrai is the founder and managing partner of Pabrai Investment Funds, a value-oriented investment firm inspired by Warren Buffett’s partnership model. Tracking his exact performance over time can be challenging because Pabrai Investment Funds is a private entity, and detailed year-by-year returns are not always publicly disclosed in real-time. However, based on available data from various reputable sources, I can provide an overview of his performance history and highlights up to the most recent updates I have access to.Pabrai launched Pabrai Investment Funds in 1999 with $1 million in assets, primarily from his personal savings after selling his IT company, TransTech, Inc. His investment philosophy is deeply rooted in value investing, focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, a significant margin of safety, and a concentrated portfolio approach—often holding fewer than ten positions at a time.Performance HighlightsFrom Inception (1999) to 2013: According to a Forbes article published in September 2013, Pabrai’s long-only equity fund achieved a cumulative return of 517% net to investors from inception (2000) through 2013, compared to 43% for the S&P 500 Index over the same period. This translates to an outperformance of 474 percentage points, or approximately 1,103% better than the market in relative terms. While the article doesn’t provide annualized figures, this suggests a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 14-15% over those 13 years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s roughly 2-3% CAGR during that timeframe.2008-2009 Volatility: Pabrai’s funds experienced significant drawdowns during the 2008 financial crisis, losing around 60% of their value, reflecting the risks of his concentrated, unhedged approach. However, he rebounded strongly in 2009 with a return of approximately 120%, showcasing his ability to capitalize on market recoveries. This aligns with posts found on X and commentary from sources like Insider Monkey, which note his dramatic recovery post-2008.1999-2018: A Quartr Insights article states that from 2000 to 2018, Pabrai Investment Funds achieved a return of 1,204%, vastly outpacing the S&P 500’s 159% over the same period. This implies an annualized return of roughly 16-17%, though exact start and end dates may vary slightly depending on the source’s calculation.Long-Term Claims: Posts on X, such as one from November 2023, claim Pabrai has delivered 25% annualized returns since 1999. While this figure may reflect specific high-performing periods or an optimistic extrapolation, it’s not consistently supported across all sources for the full timeline. His long-term average is more likely in the mid-to-high teens based on broader data, with exceptional years boosting the perception of higher returns.Recent Years: Specific annual returns post-2018 are less documented publicly due to the private nature of his funds. However, his U.S.-based portfolio, tracked via SEC 13F filings for Dalal Street, LLC (his investment vehicle), shows a focus on coal and energy stocks like Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), Warrior Met Coal (HCC), and Arch Resources (ARCH) as of late 2024. The portfolio value was reported at $253 million as of December 31, 2024, per GuruFocus, with a turnover rate of 22%. Performance data for these holdings isn’t detailed annually in public filings, but coal stocks have seen significant volatility and upside in recent years, potentially contributing to strong returns.Additional ContextAssets Under Management (AUM): Pabrai’s AUM has grown significantly over time. Starting with $1 million, it exceeded $500 million by the early 2010s and is estimated to be over $1 billion today, though much of his focus has shifted to markets like India, Turkey, and South Korea since 2019, as noted in a GuruFocus interview.Notable Periods: A specific claim from an X post in September 2024 suggests Pabrai turned $1 million into $13 million in five years (70% annualized returns) using his “spawner strategy” for finding multibaggers. While this could reflect a specific investment or period (e.g., post-2009 recovery), it’s not representative of his entire track record and lacks precise timeline corroboration from broader sources.Challenges in PrecisionSince Pabrai Investment Funds doesn’t publish a comprehensive annual performance table publicly, and 13F filings only cover U.S. holdings (a small portion of his total AUM), piecing together a complete record requires aggregating data from articles, interviews, and occasional investor letters. His funds’ performance can also vary across different vehicles (e.g., U.S. vs. international funds), and fees (no management fee, 25% of returns above a 6% hurdle) affect net returns to investors.Summary of Estimated Annualized Returns1999-2013: ~14-15% CAGR (based on 517% cumulative vs. S&P 500’s 43%).2000-2018: ~16-17% CAGR (based on 1,204% cumulative vs. S&P 500’s 159%).Post-2009 Recovery: Exceptional years like 120% in 2009 skew shorter-term averages higher.Overall Long-Term: Likely 15-20% annualized over 25+ years, with significant variability year-to-year due to concentration and market conditions.For the most current and detailed performance, you’d need access to Pabrai Investment Funds’ investor reports, which are private. Alternatively, tracking his U.S. holdings via 13F filings on sites like GuruFocus or Dataroma offers a partial view, though it misses his international investments, which he has emphasized in recent years. If you’d like, I can search the web or X for more recent anecdotal updates, though they’d be less authoritative than historical aggregates. Would you like me to dig deeper into a specific period or aspect?
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Captain Cook 18/02/25 21:34
Ha respondido al tema El Bar de los Pufforeros 2.0. Inversión de la A a la Z: Fondos, ETF, planes de pensiones, acciones, metales preciosos
lamento si entro el off-topic, pero creo que resulta muy difícil hablar solo de "inversión" en abstracto, sin la perspectiva del cambio geopolítico que estamos viviendo en radical presente: 1. el electroshock del discurso del VP Vance este finde en la conferencia de Munich (recomiendo verlo entero; es, en mi humilde opinión, un discurso para la historia)2. la foto de hoy- brutal y a palo seco - de Rubio y Lavrov negociando sobre Ucrania en Riad, con los pañuelo-turbantes saudíes como anfitriones.
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Captain Cook 17/02/25 22:13
Ha respondido al tema BP, ¿llegó el momento de comprar?
Una hipótesis es que el mercado está pensando en el “peace deal” de Ucrania.No lo he revisado en las cuentas, pero según búsqueda por internet parece que BP se ha dado cargos contables por total acumulado de 25.000 millones de dólares por el w/o de su participación en la rusa Rosneft, incluye w/o de la participación por 14.000 millones más  pérdidas por diferencias de cambio por 11.000 millones de dólares. Pero la participación no se vendió.Por lo que si se levantan sanciones, puede ser que la participación no valga Cero.Estoy buscando alguna oportunidad por el fin de la guerra en Ucrania, y tengo en seguimiento BP y Total (que tiene también inversión en Rusia depreciada contablemente, y que podría no valer Cero). 
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Captain Cook 15/02/25 14:59
Ha respondido al tema El Bar de los Pufforeros. Inversión de la A a la Z: Fondos, ETF, planes de pensiones, acciones, metales preciosos, etc
Es algo tarde, pero quizás no demasiado tarde para algunas ideas. Esto es lo que me dice mi amigo ChatGPT 4o sobre las historias sugeridas por la lista de valores que publicó Expansión esta semana, potencialmente favorecidos por el fin de la guerra en Ucrania.---### **Financials**1. **Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI AV) – Mcap: €7bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: Raiffeisen has a significant presence in Eastern Europe, including Russia and Ukraine. A resolution to the war could allow RBI to stabilize its Russian operations, potentially recover stranded assets, and reduce credit risk exposure in the region. Investors might anticipate a revival in banking activity, loan growth, and lower provisions.2. **UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) – Mcap: €70bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: UniCredit has exposure to Russia and Eastern Europe. The end of the war would likely reduce provisioning needs for potential bad loans linked to geopolitical risk. A peace agreement could also boost economic activity in the EU, leading to increased lending, higher transaction volumes, and stronger profitability.### **Industrials**3. **ROCKWOOL A/S (ROCKB DC) – Mcap: €7bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: ROCKWOOL, a major insulation materials producer, could benefit from reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. Post-war rebuilding efforts would increase demand for insulation products, boosting sales and margins.4. **Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYA ID) – Mcap: €22bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: A de-escalation of the conflict would lead to increased confidence in air travel across Europe, particularly in Eastern Europe. Lower fuel prices (if peace stabilizes energy markets) would further improve profitability for Ryanair, which operates on ultra-low-cost efficiency.5. **Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GY) – Mcap: €8bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: A peace deal would boost demand for flights to and from Eastern Europe, especially as Ukrainian airspace reopens. Furthermore, reduced geopolitical uncertainty could lead to lower fuel prices, improving Lufthansa’s operational margins.6. **Wizz Air Holdings Plc (WIZZ LN) – Mcap: €2bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: Wizz Air, with a strong presence in Central and Eastern Europe, would be a direct beneficiary of peace in Ukraine. The company could resume flights to Ukrainian cities and see a surge in passenger demand from diaspora communities eager to return home.### **Materials (Cement, Steel, Chemicals, and Construction)**7. **Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI GY) – Mcap: €26bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: Heidelberg Materials is one of the largest cement producers in Europe. Ukraine's reconstruction will drive massive demand for cement, aggregates, and concrete. An end to hostilities would also reduce energy costs (which impact cement production heavily).8. **Holcim AG (HOLN SW) – Mcap: €57bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: Similar to Heidelberg, Holcim would be well-positioned for infrastructure rebuilding in Ukraine, as well as increased private sector construction once geopolitical risks decline. Also, stabilization in energy markets would ease input cost inflation.9. **ArcelorMittal SA (MT NA) – Mcap: €22bn**     - **Peace Rally Story**: As one of the world’s largest steel producers, ArcelorMittal would benefit from post-war reconstruction. Ukraine has historically been a steel-producing country, and a peace deal might even allow ArcelorMittal to restart or expand operations in the region.10. **Buzzi SpA (BZU IM) – Mcap: €8bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: An Italian cement producer, Buzzi could see a demand spike in Eastern Europe, particularly if EU infrastructure funds are directed toward rebuilding Ukraine.11. **BASF SE (BAS GY) – Mcap: €42bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: BASF has been hit hard by high European gas prices due to the war. If peace leads to a return of cheaper Russian gas or lower global energy prices, BASF’s production costs would fall, improving profitability.12. **Evonik Industries AG (EVK GY) – Mcap: €9bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: Evonik, a specialty chemicals company, would benefit from lower energy costs and improved supply chain stability. It could also gain from increased industrial activity across Eastern Europe.13. **LANXESS AG (LXS GY) – Mcap: €2bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: LANXESS, another chemicals company, would see margin relief from reduced energy and raw material costs. Industrial activity recovery in Europe would support demand for its products.14. **Ferrexpo PLC (FXPO LN) – Mcap: €1bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: Ferrexpo is a Ukrainian iron ore producer. A peace deal would be transformational, as it would allow the company to ramp up production, restore supply chains, and increase exports to European steelmakers.15. **APERAM SA (APAM NA) – Mcap: €2bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: APERAM, a stainless steel manufacturer, would benefit from increased demand for construction materials and automotive production as supply chain risks decrease.### **Utilities**16. **Enel SpA (ENEL IM) – Mcap: €2bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: Enel, a major European utility, could benefit from lower wholesale electricity prices and reduced regulatory risks associated with the energy crisis. It could also play a role in rebuilding Ukraine’s power infrastructure.17. **Endesa SA (ELE SM) – Mcap: €23bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: A peace deal could lead to lower gas prices, improving Endesa’s cost structure and allowing it to offer more competitive energy prices in Spain.18. **E.ON SE (EOAN GY) – Mcap: €30bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: E.ON, a German energy company, could see relief from the energy crisis, benefiting from lower gas and electricity prices. It might also gain opportunities in Ukraine’s energy sector reconstruction.19. **Centrica PLC (CNA LN) – Mcap: €9bn**      - **Peace Rally Story**: The parent company of British Gas, Centrica would benefit from reduced wholesale gas costs, leading to improved margins in its energy retail business.### **Summary of Key Themes**- **Banking (RBI, UniCredit):** Relief from Eastern European risk exposure, increased lending activity.- **Airlines (Ryanair, Lufthansa, Wizz Air):** Return of air travel demand to/from Ukraine and Eastern Europe, lower fuel costs.- **Materials & Construction (Heidelberg, Holcim, Buzzi, ArcelorMittal, Ferrexpo):** Massive infrastructure demand from Ukraine’s reconstruction.- **Chemicals (BASF, Evonik, LANXESS):** Lower energy costs, stabilized industrial production in Europe.- **Utilities (Enel, Endesa, E.ON, Centrica):** Relief from high energy prices, potential roles in rebuilding Ukraine’s grid.
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