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¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

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¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida
¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida
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#1

¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

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Hora | Fecha Límite
Nombre valor | Número de operación
Concepto Títulos solicitados Títulos realizados Situación
23/12/2011 16:32:01 ACC JPMORGAN CHA *NYS* COMPRA 235 235 REALIZADA
23/12/2011 16:26:32 ACC GOLDMAN SACH *NYS* COMPRA 50 50 REALIZADA
23/12/2011 16:22:38 ACC MORGAN STAN. COMPRA 300 300 REALIZADA
23/12/2011 16:18:58 ACC B.OF AMERICA *NYS* COMPRA 225 225 REALIZADA

“Los dos guerreros más poderosos son paciencia y tiempo.” (León Tolstoi)

#2

Re: ¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

WEDNESDAY, JULY 27, 2011

Is Bank of America Undervalued? Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Thinks So. (BAC, WFC, USB)

Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Capital Management has been by far the most aggressive money manager I know of when it comes to financial stocks lately. Fairholme's portfolio has just under 75% exposure to financials. Amazing. This is in stark contrast to Donald Yacktman, another top performing equity mutual fund manager, who's funds have less than 5% exposure to financials.

In this presentation at AAII in June, Berkowitz first outlines the headwinds facing Bank of America (BAC) then goes on make his case for the bank.

The following are some excerpts (in italics) from the presentation of Fairholme's thesis on Bank of America:

Bank of America generates before reserving for bad loans and before taxes, $45-50 billion a year. That's $4.50 to $5 a share for a company that's selling for $11 and change, before provisioning for bad loans, and before taxes. That's $3.50 to $4 per share before taxes. It's going to be a long time before they pay taxes, given that they have to blow through $80 billion roughly of past losses. Which means the next $80 billion that they make, they don’t pay any taxes on. So, that’s $3.50 to $4.

So yes it is cheap. It's actually now selling for just under $ 10/share. The problem is the bank's balance sheet and especially it's ability to absorb losses through it's earnings power is not nearly as robust as better banks like Wells Fargo (WFC) or U.S. Bancorp. (USB).

For me, the period that we’re in right now is very reminiscent of the early 90s. I remember having a gigantic position in Wells Fargo. Everyone thought they were going to go bust, because they had all of these empty commercial buildings in California and all over the place. They didn't go bust.

That was around the time that Buffett first bought Wells Fargo. From the early 90s Wells Fargo went up 7x in value over the next decade or so. If you include dividends the return was more like 12x. He has added substantially to that position in recent years at mostly higher than recent market prices.

This is how we do it. And usually it means buying something that's hated. And something where the newspaper everyday is going to tell you, "You're wrong." And your friends are going to tell you, "You're wrong." There's going to be something else that is hot and juicy, some new thing which you are going to want to get in on, and you usually feel pretty lousy about it. Because, when you’re early, you look wrong. You make your most money when times are at their toughest. You just don't know it at the time.

The biggest risk is that a new crisis emerges in the financial sector before Bank of America can get most of its current headwinds behind it. I'm not willing to put a whole lot of capital at risk in a bank less able to withstand the financial stress. If they do get past their current problems at current prices Bank of America will likely make investors a very nice return.

If I use the money just to buy back stock, and the stock for some reason stays where it is for 10 billion shares, it would take them six years. In six years, they'll buy the entire company back that started in 1794 and had hundreds of billions of dollars of acquisitions that probably touches one out of every two people in the United States. Given the fact that they’re not going to pay taxes, they'll probably buy back all the stock in five years.

A year ago the valuation gap between Wells Fargo, the signficantly sturdier bank, and Bank of America was small. Now it is not. Bank of America is much cheaper but not built to withstand heavy losses in the way that Wells Fargo can if an unforeseen crisis emerges. I've referenced the following quote many times but it is important to consider in this context:

Wells Fargo obtains their money, which is the raw material, they obtain their money cheaper than anybody else. You can look at the figures for every bank and you would be startled at the trillion dollars, roughly, that Wells Fargo gets from depositors, and to some extent from debt -- how much more cheap, how cheap that is compared to most of the other big banks. If you're a copper producer, and copper is selling for two dollars a pound, and you want to measure the stress of copper going to $1.30, for a guy whose production cost is $1.50, you know, he's got problems. If his cost is a dollar, he doesn't have problems. And Wells, in terms of its raw material costs, is better situated than any large bank, by some margin. So, it's built to sustain a lot. - Warren Buffett talking to CNBC on May 2, 2009

Bank of America has higher cost raw materials. That ultimately makes it the more vulnerable bank. So while under most circumstances Fairholme's investment thesis is likely to work out just fine, I'll take Wells Fargo or U.S. Bancorp on a risk/reward basis over the long haul.

Adam

Established long positions in Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp at substantially lower than current market prices. Currently building a small long position in Bank of America.

Is Bank of America Undervalued? Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Thinks So. (BAC, WFC, USB)

“Los dos guerreros más poderosos son paciencia y tiempo.” (León Tolstoi)

#3

Re: ¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

¿Has comprado con intención de vender hoy o es para más largo plazo?

Te puedo asegurar que a esta hora, las 16.44, todavía no está claro hacia donde irán los tiros hoy en cuanto a valores bancarios americanos.

#4

Re: ¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

El tiempo no me importa.
s2

“Los dos guerreros más poderosos son paciencia y tiempo.” (León Tolstoi)

#5

Re: ¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

En mi modesta opinión si quieres comprar bancos o cualquier otra acción nunca debe de ser después de que alguien diga que está barata la acción, puede que te digan que está barata para deshacerse de ella...también puede que no que en esto no hay quien ponga la mano en el fuego, yo cuando he tomado una decisión de compra es porque me ha parecido barata a mi y a nadie más y me he pegado el hostión también con Telecom Italia, Alcatel y ahora con Nokia, pero no porque lo dijera ningún medio ni asesor, porque una vez tuve un gestor de cartera que lo único que me provocó fueron perdidas y para eso me sobro y basto yo sólo.
Tus compras si son acertadas o no lo dirá el tiempo...¡Suerte con ellas!

#6

Re: ¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

La suerte es para los audaces.

Volvemos a la moda Retro, American Retro o vuelta al pasado, a los años 80:

¿POR QUÉ NO EN LA ECONOMIA?

Un saludo

#7

Re: ¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

Hombre, pensando a largo plazo no tiene porque ser una mala inversión, todos estamos de acuerdo en que el sector bancario americano sigue castigado y barato, pero si como dicen algunos lo peor todavía está por llegar en lo referente al sector bancario europeo y de forma menos directa en el americano, pues a saber.

En todo caso si eso pasa, perderás menos que con las acciones de bancos europeos, y si nada sucede y la economía empieza a funcionar, entonces subirán como la espuma.

Saludos

#8

Re: ¿Por qué será que me da la sensación que he tirado este dinero? un poco de marcha a mi aburrida vida

Si lo peor esta por pasar me da que llegamos un poco tarde a ese pensamiento, mirando las cotizaciones vemos que lo peor ya ha pasado, los bancos estan en coma profundo, solo les queda la muerte o un milagro y la resurrección, con que alguno se salve, ya libro lo invertido.
s2

“Los dos guerreros más poderosos son paciencia y tiempo.” (León Tolstoi)