Farmas USA

Yo ahi no te puedo aconsejar porque como dije un dia en este hilo,la mayoria de los valores los uso tipo klinex,,,,,usar y tirar tanto si gano como si pierdo,,,,,imaginate si hubiera ido a largo con la que mas he ganado ultimamente,KBIO.

Hay otro tipo de valores que tampoco puedes casarte con ellos, y aprovechar el calenton para salir,,,,AQXP-DNDN en su dia,,,,,,pienso que no se puede ir a muy largo plazo en este tipo de valores que la mayoria dependen de una aprovacion del medicamento.....THLD .

Jjajaja y si les aprueban algo y un producto triunfa necesitan cash para fabricar mas producto,,me da igual que sean pastillas,,petroleo,,aparatos electronicos o puntas de paraguas,,,,,y entoces viene la puñetera dilucion.

Total,,,,que acertar es dificil de cojones.

JP Morgan Update - Overweight - Price Target $11 miserables dolares, la madre que los parió. PEDAZOS DE MIERDA.

Model Update
Following the recent announcement that the company is shifting to a nanoparticle approach for seasonal flu, we are updating our model. Specifically, we are pushing out the potential approval for a seasonal flu vaccine to 2023 from 2020 and lowering our probability of success to 25% from 50%. That said, we see limited impact to near-ter m expenses as we believe the advancement of the nanoparticle based vaccine was already planned. Bigger picture, we see minimal value reflected for flu in the current stock price. RSV remains the key value driver and in our view near-ter m stock performance hinges on the success of the phase III Resolve study for the RSV vaccine in elder ly subjects where we see a good probability of success.

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks - 
Novavax (Overweight; Price Target: $11.00)

Investment Thesis 
We rate NVAX shares Overweight based on what we see as a good probability of success for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine program in elderly patients. This view is based on the recently reported phase II data. We expect top-line results
from this study in 3Q/16 which represent the key catalyst for the company. 

Valuation
Maintaining our Dec 2016 price target of $11. Our valuation is based on a DCF using  our explicit forecasts through 2031 and assumes a probability of success of 70% in elderly RSV, 60% in material immunization, and 55% in pediatric RSV and 25%
(previously 50%) in US influenza sales. We use a 9% WACC and 1% terminal growth rate.

Risks to Rating and Price Target
NVAX is susceptible to the standard risks that apply to the entire biotech industry,  including development, regulatory, commercial, manufacturing, financing, and IP pitfalls. More specific risks to the downside include clinical setbacks (particularly for
the RSV program) and competition from other companies looking to develop an RSV vaccine. 

Piper Jaffray UPDATE

CONCLUSION
Novavax announced new plans to develop a nanoparticle influenza + RSV combo vaccine to begin Phase I/II studies in 2017. We view this revamp of an antiquated VLP flu vaccine program as a positive that will be easier to co-formulate and offer product line extension of the company's leading RSV vaccine as competition comes to market. Novavax remains our Top Pick ahead of Phase III RSV vaccine data in 3Q:16 with a BLA filing next year. The RSV vaccine recently received Fast Track designation from the FDA and Novavax will likely seek priority review with first projected sales in 2018. We reiterate our Overweight rating and $14 target.

• New Flu+RSV Combo Vaccine Plans. Novavax is now developing a nanoparticle influenza + RSV vaccine. Novavax presented preclinical data from the new program at the Keystone Symposium on Vaccines last week in South Africa. Both the RSVF vaccine and the new quadrivalent flu nanoparticle vaccine induce robust antibody production. Importantly, combining the vaccines produced similarly high levels of antibody across antigens, demonstrating that broad based, multi-pathogen protection could be achieved with a single vaccine. The multi-valent nanoparticle combo vaccine will be easier to co-formulate and offer product line extension of the company's leading RSV vaccine as competition comes to market. Novavax expects to begin Phase I/ II studies in 2017. The new flu+RSV combo vaccine will no longer fall under the current BARDA contract, so we are reducing near-term revenues, which will primarily be derived from the Gates Foundation grant to support the Phase III PREPARE maternal immunization trial.
• Phase III RSV Data in 3Q:16. Novavax immunized 11,850 elderly subjects in the Phase III RESOLVE trial and expects to report top-line data in 3Q:16. We expect Novavax to file a BLA in 2017. The RSV vaccine has received Fast Track designation for both elderly and maternal immunization and Novavax will likely seek elderly priority review. Importantly, Novavax also expects to report repeat vaccination data from the Phase II rollover study in elderly subjects, which could facilitate ACIP vaccine recommendation and support reimbursement on launch. We continue to project initial sales in 2018 and full launch in time for the 2018/'19 RSV season. Novavax intends to sell the RSV-F vaccine in the U.S. and has received significant overseas partnering interest.

We reiterate our Overweight rating and $14 price target. Following this news, we have updated our methodology and rolled forward our discount period to mid-'17. Our $14 price target is now based on an increased projected enterprise value of $4.19 billion, up from $3.87 billion, discounted back through mid-'17. Novavax is discontinuing development of its VLP seasonal flu vaccine, so we are consequently removing $974 million in value for that program. The flu program will instead be developed as a nanoparticle flu+RSV combo vaccine, which we expect will eventually replace the mono-valent RSV vaccine. We currently project the RSV vaccine entering the market for elderly patients in 2018 at a price of $50, and the combo replacing it in 2022 at a higher $75 price. We project 2022 U.S. sales of $2.76 billion, assuming 50% penetration of the elderly and pediatric populations, and 15% penetration of the maternal vaccination market. We thus value the combined RSV/flu program at $4.04 billion by applying our standard 5X multiple to these revenues discounted back at 25%, now through mid-'17. We do not add any value for overseas RSV sales, which will likely be partnered and could provide upside to our target. We continue to add $100 million for the company’s pandemic flu program. We are replacing $50 million in value for the Ebola vaccine program for a potential Zika vaccine program, which has a greater likelihood of getting funding To this we now add mid-17E cash of $74 million and subtract out the full value of the $325 million convertible note, which matures in February 2023. We divide our projected market cap of $3.94 billion by 272.5 million mid-'17E shares to support our $14 price target. 

NVAX
Estos no han sido uno de los colocadores de las notas convertibles?
Si es así están asegurando sus cortos, y hasta resultados no van a hacer nada positivo.
Unos HDLGP.

 nos vienen hoy los FUTUROS peleones ... 

NVAX

El Precio Objetivo de JP Morgan es el mismo que en Diciembre. No nos volvamos locos.
Esta gente siempre a lo suyo. Bajan del 50% al 25% las posibilidades de éxito de la gripe y retrasan su salida al mercado hasta el 2023. Reconocen que el impacto del programa de la gripe en el precio actual es mínimo. Y eso sí, ignoran el combo y que también debe estar en el mercado para ese 2023 o que es muy posiblle que este mucho antes en el marcado dado que en el 2017 empieza el combo en fase 1 y 2 y los ensayos duran más o menos un año. Es decir para el 2018 pueden emprezar la fase 3. Pero para variar estas cosas obvias, objetivas, ciertas y positivas las ignoran.
No vaya a ser que tengan que subir su PO.
Aunque no deberíamos alarmarnos. Ese informe es del viernes pasado. Alguno teme su impacto en el precio?????
Lo de Piper Jaffray y la estulticia e inmoralidad de T Tenfoff ya lo sabíamos por el artículo del otro día. Ese empeño en valorar la vacuna del RSV en 50$ para llegar a los 2,3 billones de ventas en el 2023 y dar un PO en 14$ se cae solo desde el momento en el que la compañía estima un precio por encima de los 100$.
Esta gente aplican eso que usan muchos periodistas.
“Que la realidad ( la verdad) no te estropee una noticia”
Esta gentuza de la banca lo aplica a sus propios análisis para satisfacer sus intereses.
El tiempo y los techos les pondrán en su sitio.
Y repito, mirad los hechos, valoradlos con objetividad y sobre mitad lo que ha hecho el precio los últimos días.

Después de todos estos años y lo que has visto con las valoraciones no se de que te sorprendes, estos son parte del negocio, ni independientes ni imparciales, quieren su buen cacho y llevan parte en todo.