Farmas USA

Los futuros a esta hora dan miedito..menuda forma de empezar el año

Cerrar plano este año puedes considerarlo como un excelente resultado Framus. Para mí ha sido el peor desde hace bastante...

Yo he aprendido que si me salto las reglas me queda un cadaver ... 

Este año no es que me haya ido mal , en absoluto , pero tengo apple y alguna criptomoneda en la nevera....

Tengo un regla que me la he saltado algunas veces.. la MM200 es sagrada para tradear en largos....

NVAX
En Yahoo, poniendo cifras y redplate está de acuerdo con ellas (con las diluciones si no calculo mal de memoria, $5B son unos $10 el cromo):

bballgm6 hours ago
Happy New Year 2019!

Looks like Q1 2019 is on track for RSVm data release. Good. I will stay off the board until that happens because that is the only event that matters. I've got a busy schedule, so I don't want to waste my time on speculation and chatter.

But looking at quick valuation if RSVm is successful.

JNJ bought Alios for RSV in 2014 for $1.75B cash mostly for RSV, that's basically $2B in today's value. They were only in Phase II for RSV.

The global RSVm Phase III probably cost Novavax $200M-$300M (which was partially offset by PATH's grant), as the trial started in December 2015...and Novavax cash burn has been around $30M-50M per quarter.

So right there, it's around $2.5B. This is not counting on successful Phase III.

Factoring in a successful Phase III, I think we are close to $4B-$5B valuation for the RSVm. Being first to market brings a big premium. If ACIP recommends RSV vaccine for pregnant women, it will add another Billion to valuation easily because Pfizer basically doubled their price of Prevnar after ACIP approval. That carries a big premium because the vaccines sells itself after ACIP approval...mandatory reimbursement. It would be much more valuable if efficacy creates a high barrier to entry for competitors. Novavax has a very stable RSV vaccine, which is already a very good barrier. I think many pre-F vaccines were discontinued because on instability by other big pharmas. Efficacy will be a main driver on whether certain BP drop their RSV program, and focus on Novavax buyout/bidding war. This is a coveted asset if RSVm works. If Novavax can stay standalone and get cash positive, they have potential to be $10B+ a few years down the road. I say this because once they are cash flow positive, they can get their RSVe back on track. They have the plan, just not the cash to execute.

I'm afraid that Novavax large shareholders will sell to big pharma when they see a $5B check waved in their face in 2019, and will not hold for long term value for Novavax.

Nanoflu, at this point, I won't even put a value on this. I do hope they get to a Phase III in 2019. It's a nice product, and great potential. Of course, after Phase III success, it will be worth much more. But for now, I'm not going to value it. I'm just glad it is nanoparticle, and not VLP. I don't want FDA to block it.

I also don't see Stan staying at Novavax past 2019. I see John Trizzino likely taking over as CEO in 2020. (That is if it is not acquired before that. Not likely unless management can really sell the large shareholders on their vision and 5 year plan.)

Well, enough chatter, I'll be back after RSVm data release.

Redplate: All seems about right to me.

Apertura hoy en NVAX.. alguien se ha servido bien....

Para ser un chicharro que va aumentado el numero de acciones aún hay quienes hacen lo que quieren con ella....

CELG

Celgene in-licenses PET imaging agent from Aprinoia Therapeutics

It will receive undisclosed annual license and usage fees.

CELG will use the tracer to support patient selection and efficacy evaluation in its clinical trials.

APRINOIA says APN-1607 can potentially visualize tau pathology in neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease-related dementia, corticobasal degeneration syndrome (cell loss in certain areas of the brain) and progressive supranuclear palsy, a rare brain disorder characterized by impaired movement, balance and speech.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3419999-celgene-licenses-pet-imaging-agent-aprinoia-therapeutics

Ana,,,, se te ponen bonitas las CBIO  yo las deje escapar en los 6.40  ainssss.

NVAX
Lamentablemente (o no) es el juego en el que estamos en las small/mid bios. La necesidad de capital constante, la cantidad de dinero que se mueve y la alta volatilidad hace que el trilerismo esté a la orden del día.

El que estuviera atento en Nochevieja se pudo hacer un 20% fácil.

Por cierto leo en IV que hablan de la gripe en enero y rsv en marzo (aparentemente es lo que dicen empleados de la compañía). Parece fiable pero no basaría la estrategia en el dato de marzo.