Pulso de Mercado: Intradía

Buenas tardes.
Todos los ETF de sectores registraron salidas netas la semana pasada, con los sectores de Finanzas (XLF, VFH), Tecnología (QLD, FDN) y Consumo Discrecional (XLY, VCR, RSPD) experimentando las mayores salidas de fondos, con -$1.4 mil millones, -$833 millones y -$623 millones, respectivamente. Las entradas semanales en fondos de renta fija superaron a las entradas en fondos de renta variable por segunda vez este mes. En acciones, los inversores siguen prefiriendo los ETF de mercado amplio de EE. UU., liderados por SPY (S&P 500) y IWM (Russell 2000), mientras que los ETF de sectores de EE. UU. y el más centrado en tecnología QQQ (NASDAQ) experimentaron salidas de fondos. Los fondos de renta fija tuvieron una semana sólida con entradas de +$6.2 mil millones. Los ETF de bonos del Tesoro captaron la mayor parte de los flujos, con BIL (T-Bill) y SHY (Bonos del Tesoro a 1-3 años) representando $4 mil millones en entradas. Los ETF de deuda corporativa y de alto rendimiento tuvieron salidas de fondos, con ETFs como HYG (Alto Rendimiento) y VCSH (Deuda Corporativa a Corto Plazo) registrando salidas de -$900 millones y -$800 millones, respectivamente.
Dubravko, de JPM: “Las pequeñas capitalizaciones tienen un ~40% de su deuda pendiente como deuda flotante con vencimientos más cortos, frente al ~10% de las grandes capitalizaciones. Además, las Smallcaps tienden a ser industrias más sensibles económicamente, con menor poder de fijación de precios y márgenes. De hecho, el 21% de las empresas del S&P 600 no son rentables en la actualidad (frente al 8% del S&P 500), lo que probablemente no haría sino aumentar si el ciclo económico se ralentizara.”
Fuente: serenity-markets.com
Un saludo!

Largo SP4210

 

Fed Extends Rate Pause but Keeps Door Open to Another Hike -- WSJ

Wed Nov 01 14:01:00 2023

By Nick Timiraos

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a 22-year high but kept the door open to potentially raising them later to keep slowing inflation.

Officials described recent economic activity as strong and highlighted how a run-up in long-term interest rates could weigh on economic activity, according to a statement after their two-day meeting.

Wednesday's decision comes at a delicate time for financial markets because the 10-year Treasury yield has risen swiftly -- by nearly 1 percentage point -- since officials last raised rates. Officials most recently increased their benchmark federal-funds rate in July to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%.

Fed officials have now skipped a rate hike for two consecutive meetings, making it the longest period without an increase since they began to lift rates from near zero in March 2022. Since then, they raised rates at the fastest pace in four decades to combat high inflation.

The big questions for the Fed center on what officials are looking to see in the economy, and what it would take for them to conclude they are moving in the right or wrong direction. A continued slowdown in inflation could allow officials to continue holding rates steady, while any acceleration in price pressures could lead them to hike again.

Since they met in July, the economic outlook has been buffeted by three forces that have differing implications for policy.

First, economic activity picked up, defying expectations of an imminent slowdown. Consumers boosted their spending briskly and employers rapidly expanded payrolls, assisted in part by a recovery in the share of people looking for work.

Second, inflation continued cooling. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and which peaked at 5.6% last year, hit a 2.8% annualized rate over the April-to-September period, according to the Commerce Department.

That inflation eased as growth strengthened highlights how the economy has likely benefited from improving supply conditions, including fewer bottlenecks and shortages of goods, freight shipping and workers.

Third, financial conditions have tightened amid a swift run-up in longer-dated Treasury yields, leading borrowing costs to rise for households and businesses. Increases in longer-term interest rates boost costs for mortgages, auto loans and business debt, all of which could slow economic growth. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hovered closer to 8% in recent weeks at 23-year highs, for example, which is chilling demand for home purchases.

The degree to which higher borrowing costs slow the economy depends on why they are rising. Yields can rise because investors expect the Fed will have to raise short-term interest rates more to slow inflation or because they expect inflation to rise. Both were the case over the past two years.

If higher yields are tightening financial conditions because investors expect the Fed will have to raise rates higher, officials would have to follow through or risk an easing in financial conditions that makes it harder to bring down inflation.

But if yields are rising because demand for longer-dated securities is weakening at a time of higher supply to finance growing federal budget deficits, that would suggest the extra yield -- or "term premium" -- that investors demand for the risk of buying longer-dated securities is rising. Higher term premiums could accomplish the same goals as Fed rate hikes by slowing the economy.

Stronger growth, if sustained, could raise anxieties inside the central bank. That is because the economy has proven remarkably resilient so far to rapid rate increases, the runoff of the Fed's $8 trillion asset portfolio and banking stresses that flared with the sudden collapse of three midsize banks this spring.

Officials have been trying to balance two risks. They don't want to overdo rate rises to avoid an unnecessarily severe downturn. They also don't want to allow inflation to reaccelerate or to settle at levels well above their 2% target.

Some former Fed officials say there is little reason for the central bank to keep hiking rates as long as inflation and wage growth continue to slow gradually. In that case, "I don't see a reason to make policy more restrictive," said Eric Rosengren, former Boston Fed president.

But others think the central bank should err on the side of raising rates next month as insurance against the risk that growth and inflation prove more resilient to the Fed's tightening. "I lean in the direction that they are going to get this hike in," said Richard Clarida, former Fed vice chair.

In September, most officials projected one more rate increase this year, but some have spoken in recent weeks as though they aren't eager to hike again unless hotter-than-expected economic data force them to.

That is a change from a year ago, when they were more concerned about tightening too little. Still, it is in the Fed's interest to keep a possible rate hike on the table "because the minute they completely rule that out, the next question is going to be, 'When are the rate cuts coming?'" said Dean Maki, chief economist at hedge fund Point72 Asset Management.

Write to Nick Timiraos at [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 01, 2023 14:01 ET (18:01 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 

Resumen, por el momento no más alzas de tipos, pero no cierran la puerta a hacerlo si los datos de inflación se calientan.

Este hombre es un chiste

Buenas noches.
La Reserva Federal mantuvo los tipos estables como se esperaba La declaración del FOMC hizo cambios mínimos 1) Describe la actividad económica del tercer trimestre como “fuerte” 2) A la luz de los mayores rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro, agrega la palabra “financiero” a la descripción de “condiciones crediticias más estrictas” que deberían pesar sobre el crecimiento. Nick Timiraos
Powell de la Reserva Federal: dado lo lejos que hemos llegado y en medio de la incertidumbre, estamos avanzando con cuidado
Powell: La Reserva Federal está fuertemente comprometida con reducir la inflación al objetivo del 2%
La gente está empezando a entusiasmarse con el TLT formando un fondo, pero hasta ahora el TLT sólo ha hecho una pausa en el brutal movimiento a la baja. Tenemos una divergencia RSI positiva, pero no nos entusiasmaríamos demasiado hasta que nos movamos por encima de la línea de tendencia negativa, actualmente alrededor del nivel 86.
Los operadores de tasas de interés a corto plazo en Estados Unidos están aumentando sus apuestas de que la Reserva Federal (Fed) comenzará a reducir las tasas de interés antes de junio de 2024.
Las volatilidades globales han bajado en las últimas sesiones, e incluso VXTLT se ha tomado un respiro.
El primer recorte de tipos se acerca. Zerohedge
La Reserva Federal también cambia la definición de expansión económica de “sólida” a “fuerte” y reemplazó la creación de empleo “desacelerada” por “moderada”.
La declaración del FOMC: notablemente similar, pero la adición de condiciones “financieras” más estrictas es una clara insinuación de que los bonos del Tesoro están enviando tasas considerablemente más altas (Goldman estima que el aumento en los rendimientos es = 4 veces los aumentos de tasas)
Los futuros de tasas de interés a corto plazo de Estados Unidos están registrando ganancias adicionales a las obtenidas previamente, ya que los operadores están apostando a que las subidas de tasas de la Reserva Federal (Fed) han llegado a su fin. Esto sugiere que los inversores están creyendo que la Fed ha completado su ciclo de aumentos de tasas de interés y que no se esperan más subidas en el futuro cercano.
Lo que espera Bloomberg Economics: La Fed mantendrá el tipo de interés de los fondos federales en el intervalo 5,25%-5,50%. Sería la segunda pausa consecutiva. Un ajuste potencial sería si la inflación se describe como “por encima del objetivo” o algo similar, en lugar de permanecer “elevada” como en la declaración de septiembre – esto último suena más urgente. Powell dirá que un aumento sostenido del rendimiento de los bonos a largo plazo sustituiría, en el margen, a una o dos subidas de tipos.
Fuente: serenity-markets.com
Un saludo!

Está claro que a Powell no le gusta que el Mercado dé por hecho que ya no se van a subir más los tipos y no para de meter miedo a las Bolsas con que eso no está decidido ni mucho menos 

¿que Powell ha metido miedo?

¿Pero qué grafico estas mirando?