Lo único que te puede beneficiar ahora mismo es que el POR 7 no se apruebe o haya cambios de ultima hora tras las aclaraciones del EC.
1. The 7POR/DS says that NEWCO is valued as per 6POR/DS at $210M. Is that true? No. WMMRC has been stripped of the $140M valuation of the income stream by the runoff notes. With that $140M of stripped profits, the $20M WMMRC NOLs are not required and therefore have no value. What is left is $50M of NOL intangible value for NEWCO with $75M and a $125M Credit Facility that limits the permitted acquisitions very, very narrow, requires 20% equity or cash match, has short term maturities non-renewable, and defacto covenants. What value would Blackstone provide on that? They didn't provide any.
In sum, the DS valuation of WMMRC at $210M is incorrect and has not been updated by Blackstone. It will be zero. The WMI NEWCO parent will have $75M of cash.
2. Yes, there is more and more in it. Just like (1).
3. The litigation subcommittee upstreams to the Liquidation Trustee and LT Advisory Board. 3 Creditors 1 Middle and 3 EC seats. The 1 Middle is a former Weil Partner, Calpine Debtor Counsel against EC consultant MW and EC counsel Fried Frank. Giving up the 1 mid-seat is tough, but now the EC admits that one of the 3 EC seats goes to a WMB representative as part of the deal. So the LTAB is 5-2 out of the gate. Of the 2 is MW, who negotatiated this arrangement. Makes you feel all warm and fuzzy doesn't it?
3. Exiting "on the other side," the fresh start balance sheet will show net assets of $75M, 36% of the $210M valuation per 7POR/DS and certainly not $1 a converted share. Do the math. The 7POR/DS doesn't show the math.
4. The EC appointed BOD is 4 EC 1 SNH. That BOD will be around for 6 months, maybe one year. Then, the majority owners of NEWCO, the shareholders, will elect the permanent BOD. EC control lost, how do you think the SNHs and NHs will treat retail?
5. Read the DS and do the math. Do the math. Do the math.
6. It is not a happy 2012. Retail equity called out the trading of the SNHs and stopped the SNHs from getting NEWCO and the $210M WMMRC and the NOLs. Since then, the settlement no longer includes $210M WMMRC, but we get $75M in return; I guess all the releases were valued at this amount by PJS. The SNHs have merely "adjusted," and will get NEWCO based on the current MKT CAP of the classes, about $140M. Wow, isn't that the amount of WMMRC income/dividends we just stripped to them via the runoff notes? Simple math.