Re: $4 Billones
Cierto es que el tiempo lo pone todo en su sitio... date tiempo.
Cierto es que el tiempo lo pone todo en su sitio... date tiempo.
The SNs won't be buying any NOLs: they'll be buying out retail for something less than the cash value of the NOLs, say $500MM to $1B. That way they'll have the $7.5B in unrestricted NOLs to exploit on their own. The payout will mean they'll only have $1.25B to $1.75B left for themselves, but that's more than enough to capitalize a fund, and they'll probably put in their own money, too. The point is they'll be able to go private and trade/deal in secret, the industry norm.
While I concede I don't have the benefit of having my tax guy sitting here with me this morning to help, it seems to me that if there is a $7.5B NOL, at a 35% tax rate, that equates to $2.625B cash value. I would think that is an attractive asset that could be negotiated at a 50/50 split, especially if there are multiple interested parties. At 50% of $2.625B, that is $1.3125B, a tad more than $500M to $1B you suggest. And yes, I understand they would not be "buying the NOLS", thank you.
Retail is only 25% of Newco. I'm talking about the SNs doing the buying, and about buying out retail, only. I erred on the low side with respect to estimating cash value of the NOLs. If the cash value is $2.25B, then ignoring present value discount, retail would only be entitled to 25% or $562.5 million of that money. If we divide that amount by the approximately 45MM Newco shares I estimate to be retail hands we get $12.50 per share, which translates into $250 per P, $6.25 per K, and $.38 per common.
Unfortunately, the SNs WILL factor in the discounting, and that means less than $562.5MM.
If, once retail is gone, the SNs find a way to use the $17.7B in NOLs, retail will have been shafted. I don't think this would happen, though, I think the EC will be in on it.
The foregoing assumes the $7.5B is the sole tax benefit; there might be others or there might be a loophole for using the entire $17.7B and jettisoning retail at the same time. Hypothetically, if that's the case we'd be looking at a portion for retail of about $1.33B (i.e., $17.7(.3)(.25)), which would yield a non-discounted per retail Newco share sale price of $29.50 ($1.33B/44MM). I just don't know if this is even in the realm of possibility, though once the hue and cry have died down and the SNs are private, who knows.
For TPSC to see full face on the TPS ($1,000 per share -- same as Ps), it would take over $50 PPS. So do you think they would be okay with $5 per share ... first offer from the OTHER hedge funds!!
Seems to me there will be some internal battle for the majority share position in order to use the NewCo for a greater value than they want to let on.
With there being more than 300 shareholders, I don't think they have much choice about going public. So how do the hedge funds make an offer to retail once it's public?
In the projected 2012 expenses, there is apprx. $3MM put aside for accounting (auditing). I'd say that would be the determining factor of what my retail shares are worth to sell to a hedge fund because from my rough calculations ....
1) we don't yet know which NOLS the BOD will choose to use; the $7B was the suggested route
2) we don't know what funds might come from the litigation
3) we don't know how much cash/assets will be left after the Liquidating Trust pays off the Unsecured Claims & PIERS. Perhaps $100MM ... maybe nothing.
Why would I want to take $5 per share when the value is already greater than if the NOLs value is calculated in? If we go public, then the hedge funds will have to buy the shares off the open market. I've waited all this time ... I can wait a while longer to see what the value is after the dust settles.
There's been a lot of discussion on whether the SHN's and the TPS holders, or someone else would want to buy Newco and take the company private, so I did some reading.
The SEC rule now says that the maximum number of shareholders for a private company is 499, recently dubbed "The Facebook Rule."
The Private Company Flexibility and Growth Act (H.R. 2167), which recently passed the house subcommitee and has been sent up for a vote, would increase the number of shareholders to 1,000. A similar bill proposes the max number to be 2,000.
Usually tender offers are offered at a premium of the traded price. So, one question would be if Newco becomes traded on the stock market before a tender offer. I guess that would be up to the BOD. Valuation could be difficult if we're not being publically traded.
Newco would have to get the total number of shareholders under 500, or 1000 or 2000 if one of the bills pass, in order to go private.
Shareholders would be free to accept or reject the offer, so it would have to be a compelling offer in the minds of enough shareholders in order to get the required number to go private, otherwise it seems Newco would have to be a public co.
If a tender offer is acceptable to enough shareholders and the company goes private, then one has to make a choice between accepting the offer or holding shares in a private company. The disadvantages to shares in a private company would be liquidity, e.g., the ability to easily sell shares if one choses, however, private sales are allowed. (Don't ask me how that works.)
I would think that the perceived value of the company would depend mainly on the amount and nature of the NOL's (restricted or unrestricted.)
The wording from SG & EC suggests a floor value, but leaves the door open for more losses being counted. So, I guess we won't know what that is until Newco is established and we get a full accounting of the NOL's. Until then, I think we're pretty much in the dark as to what total amount Newco will claim for NOL losses. Hopefully, there will be some pleasant surprises.
So, I would think that the bottom line would be Newco's final NOL amount, and the nature of it, and will the offer be high enough to entice the required number of shareholders to accept a tender offer in order to become a private co. I guess in that sense, holders of Newco common will still be able to determine whether the company is a public or private one. Then I would suppose if not enough shareholders sell for Newco to go private, then we would have to ask ourselves what's better - cash on hand or shares in the new Newco.
This webpage outlines the rules and regs of a tender offer:
http://www.mofo.com/files/uploads/Images/090701TenderOffers.pdf
ya queda menos para que todas las acciones estén congeladas! :)
¿Para que esta objecion a estas alturas de confirmar el POR?
Las acciones las van a congelar pero tus seguidores estan congelados hace tiempo.