Comparativas WAMPQ vs WAHUQ
WAMPQ versus WAHUQ return
Comparing between investing in WAMPQ versus H shares at the last minute. I am just discussing the following from a realistic trading point of view for fun so spare me the talk about P getting paid $1000 per share and WMIH going to $50 for a moment.
Currently we know for sure that H will get paid around $10.5 per share and if you bought at the last minute under $3 per share, you would have made about 350% return.
On the other hand if you bought WAMPQ then there is no warranty that it will be paid anything through the LTI but you own 19.8 WMIH share for every WAMPQ share that you owned. And so if you bought WAMPQ let say at $10 per share, that will be equivalent to 10/19.8 = $0.5 per WMIH share.
And so if can comfortably think that WMIH will eventually be worth $2 per share, that's a 400X return. If it is $5 per share then it's a 800X return and so on and so forth.
Then you also get the benefits of the LTI and the sky is the limit there. It can be as low as $50 per WAMPQ share or $500 per WAMPQ or even higher than $1000 per WAMPQ because there is no cap anymore.
So overall, H will give you a quicker return (which you can use it to buy more WMIH at still low price) but WAMPQ will give you a much higher return in 2-5 years.