Gran analisis WMIH
http://www.zenolytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/T11-January-2014-Zenolytics-Performance.pdf
The weakness in shares of WMIH shouldn't have really been a surprise following a 145%
up month in December. In fact, I was happy with the performance of the stock during the
month as the volatility was generally contained and downside volume was basically nonexistent during the drop.
As of January 31st, WMIH and KKR did finalize the terms of the deal that provides WMIH
a strategic partner, equity partner and financing partner. I can't emphasize enough how
important a role KKR plays here. KKR partnering with WMIH is the equivalent of Lebron
James taking a 10 year old that has shown promise at the game of basketball under his wing to foster a future in the NBA.
I have always been one to preach the analysis of intentions rather than pure, logical analysis derived from whatever data is at one's hands. It is only in the analysis of the intentions of participants that an investor can derive the vision necessary to see far down to road.
Otherwise, an investor is stuck in the mud of current data that more often than not lags far behind the reality of any given situation.
If an investor was to look at WMIH on the basis of intentions from the very beginning, the
outcome that continues to play out should have been obvious. Obvious enough, in fact, to
make this a large position when the NOLs, reinsurance entity, board of directors and
collective experience of Blackstone were being sold for $25 million ex-cash in July of 2012
when I initiated the position.
What were the intentions of the institutions who put up a ferocious court battle against the equity committee in an effort to keep the former Washington Mutual assets private?
What were the intentions of putting together a board of directors who is a who's who of
restructuring and financial industry specialists?
What were the intentions of having Blackstone, a top 3 private equity firm in the world, as a strategic advisor for M&A?
What were the intentions of a two separate option grants to the board of directors since
shares reemerged in March 2012?
What are KKR's intentions, another top 3 equity firm in the world, in becoming a substantial shareholder in WMIH upon exercise of warrants?
Multiple answers can be given to each of these inquiries. Every single answer, however,
points to valuable assets being in play here that are being cultivated very carefully and
deliberately. That careful cultivation has multiple ends in mind, the primary of which is a
substantial tax shelter. Secondarily and perhaps equally as important, an appreciation in
share price that will be commensurate to the scale of the opportunity ahead.
The intentional analysis here lays it all out. Just takes the ability to look past one's nose to see it. By the time any reliable financial analysis is able to be done on this deal, the share price will be nowhere in the range it is now.