An analysis by JaySenese with postscript by El_Juez:
JaySense writes: (4/6/2013)
I'm as frustrated as anyone, but I honestly thought NOTHING would happen for 2 years. I wasn't even sure the stock would trade. I continue to believe, as I have said before, that today's stock price is a 'gift' to true longs.
Compare the upside to the downside. March 2012 we had $75MM and $5.7B in NOLs good for 30 years. March 2013, we had, what, $70MM and $5.7B in NOLs good for 29 years. Next year, if nothing happens? Maybe $65MM and NOLs good for 28 years. That's not a lot of downside risk. Upside is much much higher. {Jay subsequently notes that these numbers are from memory, as examples, not absolute numbers to be taken as spot-on, but used for making of his point.}
MW could have done many things wrong, but, to my mind, he hasn't.
1. We all know he lacks experience in this type of high level financial work. Almost the first thing he did was announce he had retained Blackstone to search out and research deals for us. GOOD MOVE!
2. He could have trotted out a quick deal, bought an abandoned steel plant or the shell of an insurance underwriter or whatever, just to make a point and show he can. He didn't. He has waited. I would have been a seller if something had happened too quickly. These deals take TIME.
3. He could have started gobbling up the seed money. He could have borrowed from the $125MM credit line without justification. He could have hired a PR staff and a secretary or whatever. He hasn't. We have, what, two full time employees and two part time employees? How much more prudent can he be with our money than that? The Board is taking their pay in WMIH shares, not cash. Very cool ...
4. He could have ignored shareholders, but he hasn't. READ the various filings: he is answering almost all of our questions in them. We have 8,034 shareholders. We have an upcoming shareholders meeting. Blackstone is still on our side. Everything we're thrown out there has been answered in one way or another.
5. Some shareholders wish we could learn ahead of time what his plans are. Thank God MW is not sharing his plans with us. That would demonstrate to everyone involved that he was unqualified to lead this company. Did you read about Dell? They approached 67 institutions, some public and some private, about buying some or all of the company. Not one of those companies spoke to the press afterwards and revealed that those discussions took place. These are private, quiet affairs. We are competing with dozens of other entities with deeper pockets than us. We must keep quiet.
6. Meanwhile, MW is also serving on the committee for the WMILT. That seems to be progressing just fine, and as expected. I didn't expect to see any money from my H's for at least two years, but I am beginning to think we'll see money before summer.
In summary, MW appears to be:
1. Patient
2. Methodical
3. Frugal
4. Hard Working
What more could you ask for from a freshman CEO and his company?
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Postscript and commentary added by El Juez: (4/6/2013)
Great post with mature insights, Jay. I have zero inside knowledge as to WMIH's operations (since I never ask), but have every confidence in MW as an honorable man and a leader with the best intentions. Could add a few more descriptions to your already accurate list, based on my observations:
5. Objective
6. Modest
7. Motivated
8. Combat Veteran (with the scars to prove it)
9. Good Poker Player
Although Warren Buffet wasn't available, I believe we still are in good hands, even though we are necessarily still in the dark. Anybody who believes he is in it just for LTAB and BOD pay is way off the mark. He wants to win. Here's hoping he can pull it off.
For what it's worth