Most longs holding shares prior to Wednesday when the November MOR came out were holding shares for one of a few reasons.
Some being:
1. Money to WMI through Settlment from FDIC and/or JPMC
2. JPMC/FDIC found guilty through the Legal System, which would result in Money to WMI
No one could have predicted thta WMI would have an opportunity to file a tax return that provided utilization of 5 years instead of 2. The law wasnt passed until recently and because of that, no one could have predicted WAMPQ or WAMKQ being "IN THE MONEY" prior to winning litigation or settlment, yet everyone held; confident that WMI had a case against the guilty.
Those holding shares were confident that their ROI was worth the risk and that with time they would see a return or at least hoped to do so. Nothing was (or is) certain and the money they invested could very likely be lost.Now as of recently, we've seen some momentum with the media getting involved, pps fluctuations, a very exciting MOR, EC on the horizon and SJ still in the wings; not to mention deeper discover, handing over of documents willingly, doubled hearings in February and March, a delayed hearing in January (which will allow for Decembers MOR to be accessible during the new date) and other recent events.
Anyone who was holding back in 2008 or there after until recently should not be shaken by anything related to WMI's PPS. We have seen dips, we have seen bashers, we have seen 'unexpected comments', we have seen delays, we have seen what appears to be contempt from S&C, we have seen off the wall threats by the FDIC, we have seen media blackouts, we have seen fraud at its best. I suspect we will continue to see this happen.
I also continue to see WMI continue to increase in PPS (all series)with occasional dips. The recent news blast by Reuters and thestreet are exciting however they are not what is going to settle this case or provide FV to any of the preferred series. What will provide FV and PPS to rise on the commons (as well as the H,P,Ks) are events that put them into the money. This recent MOR indicates that Ps may be in the money. With that being said the only thing that changed for Commons then is "they are closer to being in the money". That is what one must remember, forget the PPS forget the recommendations or fear mongering by Crammer's Cronies. Remember that the UST (as mentioned in the Reuters article) is looking to set up a Equity Committee. For those who were skeptical about the UST's ability to appoint an EC keep in mind that this MOR doesn't put Equity in the money; but heavily supports it. For folks with only common, do not envy the rise in the Hs,Ps and Ks, look deeper and see why they have potentially increased in pps. If Ps, Hs and Ks are int he money as the MOR indicates/supports then we can expect a EC to be formulated without question and with 'urgency' as well. Once an EC is appointed commons will see the surge they await. (if not sooner)
I agree with many of the posters on the board that the commons are the most interesting to look at, in that they haven't experienced 'flight' yet. For anyone to know what the Ps or Ks are going to do is impossible. The volume on them has been 'lack-luster' and leads me to question how easily they can be 'manipulated'.
The facts are, regardless of where the PPS lands on Monday:
-WAHUQ is at nearly 65% of FV
-WAMPQ and WAMKQ have seen an increase of 2200% increase in PPS from their 52 week low.
-WAMUQ: The distance from "in-the-money" has decreased substantially with the tax returns being discussed. These returns are expected to allow Assetts to exceed liabilities which in return will result in equity having 'something'. If the above information above wasn't accurate why would the UST be pushing for an EC.
I guess Reuters said it all:
"Shareholders are generally the last creditors to receive a distribution and such a committee is usually opposed by the U.S. Trustee unless shareholders can prove they can reasonably expect a distribution after all creditors have been paid."
Usually opposed... unless .... can prove ....expect a distribution....after creditors have been paid.
Be calm and collective in your thoughts and do not allow media reports, the bashers, fluctuations in PPS, unsubstantiated statements regarding commons being left out to dry and/or delays to affect you.
Remember....we were hear before WMI had even filed its first claim against JPMC and/or the FDIC. Since then allot has happened and throughout it all..the worst thing we have seen is a delay from Walrath... in my opinion..it was a great 2009.
Best of luck to everyone in 2010.
Be careful in your investing!