Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Si vas a copiar literalmente algo que he puesto en twitter hoy mismo lo suyo sería que dijeras de donde lo has sacado, digo yo. 

Pues te pido perdón porque lo hice con el móvil. Tampoco he pretendido transmitirlo como mío. Gracias por la información porque resume perfectamente lo que quería compartir.
Un saludo.
PD: no me deja modificar el otro post para añadir la fuente. Esto es lo máximo que puedo hacer con el móvil.


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Buenos días Apradmon, veo que tus intervenciones son escasas y puntuales en el tiempo, pero interesantes, leo siempre con atención todo lo que dices.

Mucho me temo que lo que has contado ahora es el sentimiento generalizado que tenemos todos en el fondo de Paramés.

Hay, y empieza ya a constatarse un desencanto muy generalizado hacia el fondo y la gestora, y como he mencionado en alguna ocasión, se echa de menos el equipo de antes con Guzmán de Lázaro y Bernad.

Como comentas,  acertadamente, si  Paramés no tuviera la cobertura de su historial creo que el 60% de sus clientes se hubieran marchado ya por patas...pero lo mantiene, de momento, su aura y su leyenda que se "labró" en Bestinver...aunque alguien ya ha puesto encima de la mesa la gran duda de...¿de quién, y quién era el alma del mérito de lo logrado...?

Un saludo y gracias por tus, siempre interesantes opiniones.

No hay problema, pirate ;)

Añado un poco de información/opiniones que he ido recabando:

- Sospecho que la OPEC ha reducido la espectativa de demanda en 2019 para justificar un recorte de la producción en diciembre, lo cual apretaría aún más el mercado físico y lo dejaría bastante vulnerable en caso de evento geopolítico (Libia, Irak, Irán, Venenzuela...) Por otro lado las estimaciones de la demanda históricamente se han quedado cortas, en especial creo que se infraestima India.

- Con un WTI en torno a los 55$ y los diferenciales actuales, practicamente todos los productores canadienses pierden dinero por lo que cabría esperar recortes de producción. Por otro lado, la mayoría están bastante apalancados.

- IPCO tiene cerca de la mitad de la producción referenciada al Brent (pre-adquisición) con costes de producción muy bajos, por lo que va a tener un importante cash flow para eliminar deuda + invertir en los activos adquiridos  + recomprar acciones(?)

- Debido a los bajos precios del WCS algunas refinerías han adaptado sus precesos a este tipo de crudo pesado.

- El shale estadounidense es demasiado ligero, bastante bueno para producir gasolina pero no diesel, por lo que algunos productores lo están mezclando con crudo pesado como el canadiense (el otro gran productor es Venezuela). 

- Están empezando a verse signos importantes de agotamiento en Eagle Ford y Bakken (shale US) a pesar de la fiebre de perforaciones. 

Mi opinión es que se está produciendo la tormenta perfecta entorno al oil, pero sobre todo en torno al canadiense. No obstante se trata de un negocio cíclico y es muy dificil acertar el mínimo, además de la tremenda especulación que hay. Las dinámicas de oferta y demanda de medio plazo no mienten, aunque como buenos contrarians lo normal es que tengamos cara de tontos el 90% del tiempo.

Un saludo.

Muchas gracias. En la carta de TrueValue también hablaban un poco sobre IPCO. Y en SA hay algún análisis muy interesante referente al oil Canadiense y sobre los problemas temporales que deberían resolverse en 2019. Refinerías que han estado paradas, falta de oleoductos y problemas con el transporte por tren.
Ahora mismo el mundo es un tablero de ajedrez donde en un lado está USA y al otro tenemos a China + Rusia. Cada uno va moviendo sus piezas, y el mercado petrolero es una pieza más en este juego.

Un artículo de Financial Times sobre el tema:

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https://www.ft.com/content/0cf956f6-e6c2-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3

Canada’s oil producers look beyond Keystone XL pipeline
Legal challenges have delayed construction while prices have plummeted in Alberta

Keystone XL would have a capacity of 830,000 b/d, but faces legal challenges in federal courts and in Nebraska © Reuters
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Ed Crooks in New York 3 HOURS AGO 0
When President Donald Trump signed an order in January 2017 to allow TransCanada’s long-delayed Keystone XL oil pipeline to go ahead, the Canadian oil industry was delighted. Nearly two years on, construction has still not started, and the project faces yet another hold-up following a federal court ruling last week.

Oil producers in Alberta still hope that eventually they will be able to use Keystone XL to reach refineries and export terminals in the US, but they are stepping up their investment in other options.

The need for other routes to market has become increasingly urgent as a shortage of pipeline capacity has crushed oil prices in Alberta. Western Canadian Select, the benchmark for the heavy crude produced in Alberta’s oil sands, has been trading at levels last seen at the trough of the industry downturn in early 2016.

Paul Miller, TransCanada’s president of liquids pipelines, told investors at a presentation on Tuesday: “The need for Keystone XL has never been greater.”

As other oil prices around the world have picked up since last year, prices in western Canada have slumped, with WCS opening up a discount of about $40 a barrel to benchmark US crude. On Monday WCS was just $17.78 a barrel, compared to $58.91 for US West Texas Intermediate.

“If you come here and buy crude in western Canada, you can get a hell of a deal,” said Kevin Birn of IHS Markit. “The question is: can you physically move it?”

Not every company has to take those low benchmark prices. Larger groups such as Imperial Oil, which is 69.2 per cent owned by ExxonMobil, Suncor Energy and Husky Energy, which has an oil sands joint venture with BP, often have pipeline capacity booked and their own refineries, so they can sell the oil in higher-priced markets or process it into more lucrative products themselves.

For companies that do not have those options, cash operating costs typically running at about $30 a barrel mean they can be losing money on every gallon they produce. In many oil sands projects, shutting down production completely can damage the reservoir and make it impossible to restart, but companies can throttle back. Jackie Forrest of ARC Financial said oil sands companies including Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resources and Devon Energy had announced curtailments totalling about 120,000 barrels a day, but there were limits to how much further those cuts could go.

The low prices for Canadian oil are particularly galling for producers because of changes in international oil markets that have increased demand for heavy crude. The Gulf of Mexico coast of the US was “the largest heavy oil refining centre in the world”, Ms Forrest said, because refineries there were configured to make more products from heavy crude. 

US imports of heavy crude from Mexico and Venezuela have declined as their output has fallen, however. So heavy Maya crude, which traditionally sold at a discount to WTI, has been trading at a premium. If Canadian heavy oil can reach the Gulf Coast, it can be sold for about $50 a barrel more than the WCS price in Alberta. 

That benefit could get even larger. Heavy oil is better for making diesel fuel, while the lighter crude produced from US shale oilfields is better for petrol. Anas Alhajji, an energy analyst, argued that because demand growth was stronger for diesel, US shale oil would soon start bumping up against the limits of refiners’ demand, and the price premium for heavy oil would “explode”.

There is not much extra pipeline capacity becoming available. Enbridge’s upgrade of its Line 3, which will add about 380,000 barrels a day of capacity, is expected to enter service next year. Another proposed increase in export capacity, the 590,000 b/d expansion of the Transmountain pipeline from Alberta to Vancouver, was blocked by a Canadian court in August and faces further delays. Keystone XL would have a capacity of 830,000 b/d, but will have to overcome legal challenges in federal courts and in Nebraska.

Mr Miller told investors that while TransCanada remained “fully committed” to Keystone XL, it was too soon to say what impact last week’s court ruling would have on its schedule.

With only limited relief expected from that direction, companies are looking for options. One response was Husky Energy’s C$6.4bn (US$4.8bn) hostile bid for rival oil sands producer MEG Energy, launched last month. Husky stressed its access to “committed transportation capacity” as one of the key advantages of its offer.

Other companies are spending on rail equipment and facilities. Imperial said last week in its annual presentation for investors that it had increased the number of rail tank cars it was using by 20 per cent in 2018. Next year it expects to increase the flow through its Edmonton rail terminal to 170,000 b/d, from 80,000 b/d earlier this year. 

Richard Kruger, Imperial’s chief executive, said of the remaining approvals needed for Keystone XL: “We’re hopeful that those things do develop, but we don’t run our business off of hope.”

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Cenovus in September signed three-year deals with Canadian National and Canadian Pacific to transport 100,000 b/d of heavy crude from Alberta to the US Gulf Coast.

The cost of rail transport on that route is about $20 a barrel, but the step-up in prices from travelling that 2,000 miles is so great that it is worth doing. In a sign that investment in the oil sands could still pay off, Imperial last week announced it would spend C$2.6bn to develop the 75,000 b/d Aspen project in Alberta. It was the largest investment in the oil sands announced since the slump in crude prices that began in 2014.

Environmental campaigners who have successfully fought to obstruct Keystone XL for a decade have done so on the grounds that it would encourage more investment in the oil sands. Blocking the pipeline has certainly impeded growth in Alberta’s oil production, but it does not seem able to stop it.

De donde sale eso de que producen a 10$/12$? Lo dijo Alejandro Estebaranz pero a mi no me salen estos números...

No sigo mucho a IPCO, pero en la charla que dio Alejandro Estebaranz en la Complutense, creo recordar que dijo que los pozos más baratos producían en torno a esa cifra, pero no creo que ese sea el precio medio de producción ni en broma.