Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
Extracto de un básico pero interesante libro sobre commodities “Commodoties: 50 things you need to know”
The consequences for global economic activity from a change in the price of oil will also depend on its cause. If the price of oil is driven higher by an increase in the demand for oil, then the global economy is likely to continue to expand, and perhaps at a fast pace. However, that does not rule out the possibility of recessions in individual economies, particularly if the increase in the demand for oil is concentrated in a particular country or region. On the contrary, an increase in the price of oil that is driven by a reduction in oil supply will unequivocally lower productive potential around the world, and perhaps by enough to cause the global economy to contract.[ 59]
Since the 1970s, almost every spike in the price of oil has been followed, relatively rapidly, by a recession in the Western world. An oil price danger zone if you like. Writing in 2005, US economist James Hamilton found that a spike in oil prices had preceded nine out of ten post-World War II US recessions. He later concluded that the economic downturn of 2007–08 should be added to the list of recessions to which oil prices appear to have made a material contribution
Extracto de un básico pero interesante libro sobre commodities “Commodoties: 50 things you need to know”
En el caso del petroleo, yo entiendo que si sube por un aumento de demanda, la subida puede ser un efecto de acercarnos a un pico de ciclo. Si es por una reducción de la oferta, el incremento del precio del petroleo sería más bien una causa más que puede contribuir a precipitar el final del ciclo.