Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Los day rates de Marzo

Es un negocio malo, que está idealizado de alguna forma.

Fijaos que su futuro ha sido crecdr en ingresos para decrecer en márgenes. No es un negocio perdurable porque la erosión de márgenes está ahí par quedarse a medida que el servicio se comoditiza y otros players compiten por precio.

Pero ojo con el negocio, para que una compañía que declara ingresos por estado de avance de sus trabajos se ve obligada a declarar write offs y poner todo el negocio en media con margin 0 o negativo, el desastre interno ha tenido que ser mayúsculo. No sólo ha debido ser que les ahayn cancelado contratos y hayan tenido que mantener a los equipos de ingenieros a la espera de otros trabajos.

Es posible que el incentivo interno fuera por crecer y hayan entrado a contratos de riesgo y bajos márgenes.

Pero ahora hay una oportunidad concreta. Es fácil que doblen el beneficio después de un año tan malo.

 

Otro día más con un volumen ridículo.

Así no puede llegar muy lejos.

 

Deseo aportar tres graficos adicionales sobre la evolucion historica de Técnicas

Suben las ventas.

Beneficios con altibajos, pero más bien hacia abajo.

Y PER mediano de los ultimos años entorno a 17.

Aquí os lo dejo, que cada uno saque sus conclusiones.

 

 

The next question comes from [Arfa Pluz, Grupo
Santa Lucia]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Unidentified Analyst, [59]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
I would like to ask 2 questions. First of all, if you can
be more precise with working capital, more analysts
have been asking in 2018, what would be your worst
position of cash and you're not answering the
question correctly. If you say, maybe there will be a
position of debt or you will maintain a position of net
cash. And I would like Mr. Juan to be more precise if
he can. And then you're talking about idle capacity
and I see your revenue of this quarter, it's [EUR
1,255.8]. If I multiply that by 4, it's [EUR 5,020]. You
haven't done that in the history of this company. So I
don't think, it's a problem of idle capacity in this
quarter. And then, I see the EBIT margin minus
[1.33]. I would like to ask what has happened?
Because when I see your business model, all the
notes when you contract a project, it's [7.9] of
EBITDA margin. Then you take into account central
costs and then you get to more or less [5% -- 4%] of
EBIT margin once some -- you get some cost
overruns. But suddenly minus 1.33 . And then I'm not
serving your position of working capital. Can this be
suddenly -- you have decided to reset some cost that
your clients won't pay. So more information, because
at the end of the day, you don't go doing 4% EBIT
margin. And suddenly you do 0% or minus 1.33 . If
you can be more clear, what's happening? Is there
really a problem in certain projects and you decided
to just say the industry is competitive? I think, Mr.
Juan should give us more information about what's
happening. Thank you very much.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Juan Llado Arburua, Técnicas Reunidas, S.A. - 1St
Vice Chairman [60]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
This is Juan. And you were saying something about
that trying to match idle capacity with increasing
sales and you see that they -- that doesn't match.
Idle capacity, I mean, and that happens very often. I
mean, it happens all the time. If our project is start
with engineering and they start with a great detail of
engineering, it would be like 2 projects. When you
start a project, it's engineering and that's valueadded.
And I advise you to come to Madrid and see
our engineer offices. When you see we have 6,000
people designing the jobs. When you start doing the
engineering (inaudible) with the architects. With the
architect that we designing that has to be bought and
then built by us. And then on our P&L, you'll see not
much margin and very little sales.
And when about -- when the project is about 60%
advance, you start seeing -- lot of engineering is
practically done. And then we will start have running
problems of idle capacity. You do -- you will see it, if
you look the sales figure, because then I will firstly do
is to ramping-up. With the ramping-up because large
part of the equipments is going to the site and
construction tend to take place. So you will say, TR is
doing great because sales are going great. But we'll
be having idle capacity. And at that time, the house
will be looking for new jobs. If we want to have --
that's the difficulty of our business and that's the
[value of entry] of our business to be able to have
3,000 - 4,000 engineers ready to pick over those
jobs. To give you -- you are not going to see a sales
ramp-up with these new jobs [$5 billion] jobs next
year at all. But we are going to have to be ready to
have close to 3,000 engineers to launch with those
jobs and we have probably may about 3,000
engineers designing from process department,
structure, civil. I'd like to call different jobs for
different customers launching those jobs.
So there is a mismatch and it brings -- I understand
you, because it brings great confusion. It will be like
a -- in engineering business and the procurement
and construction business. And today, what we had
suffered and the big structure of TR is our capacity to
launch in engineering. And the reason that they give
us these big jobs is because we have that capacity. If
engineering has to be done by us and not subcontracted.
We do sub-contract construction. We do
sub-contract some services to buy equipment. We do
sub-contracts on local engineering, that are the
hardcore of engineering, the know-how, the
technological engineer cannot be sub-contracted and
we never do it. And that runs the risk that if jobs
canceled and they have been canceled, and then
delayed, it has been delayed. It creates a big [hole]
within TR and that's within TR Madrid. There are
offices here in Madrid, in the north of Madrid, that we
have to place those guys not in the [black room],
they have to be working and in all the other project is
still alive. So that's a mismatch. I understand [it
where] you can guess, it doesn't match because
that's the way it is. I think, you were asking me more
things and I am a little lost. But that was 1 question.
The other question.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Unidentified Analyst, [61]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Working capital.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Juan Llado Arburua, Técnicas Reunidas, S.A. - 1St
Vice Chairman [62]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Well with the worst case of the working capital in
2019, is that? -- '18 or '19, you correct me (inaudible)
because I don't want, I wonder...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Unidentified Analyst, [63]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
I just want to see when I observe your working
capital and the deterioration in the past 24, 30
months, when is it going to get worst? Now, when I
see the position of cash of, I think it's [220]
something of net position of cash. How much more is
it going to deteriorate. Are we going to see a position
of net debt of [EUR 200 million] at some point in
2018? Just to --as you know better than I do, and
you have more information. In the worst point, and
the worst point of more working capital needs, what
is more or less a balance sheet of TR going to look
like? And then joining that with the 2019, so with
those 3,000 engineers what you're trying to tell me is
that in 2019 or you execute [5 billion] or else it's
impossible, 4% EBIT margin?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Juan Llado Arburua, Técnicas Reunidas, S.A. - 1St
Vice Chairman [64]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
I mean the working capital has to do project-byproject.
And right now, a very large percentage of our
projects are in the Middle East and with Saudi
Aramco to be specific demonstrate -- they pay
[worse]. I mean, they pay 30 days worse or
sometimes their contract say [probably] but they
always pay, because I mean -- they always pay, they
always have paid and they always will pay. And also
they are contract with less risk, easier, and more
professional to design and deliver. So that's what I
said before that when we work in that region
especially -- for very specific customers, for the
probably -- the most reliable customers in the world,
we have to trade cash for risk and that's very
important. But having said that, our projects develop
and we launch the projects and those projects get --
will get a final notice to proceed. That means that we
start getting downpayment, buying equipment, go
through the milestones, our cash level will very much
stabilize. As has always been the case. We haven't
got a working capital crisis. We have got a picture
today that most of the backlog we are finishing and
all the new jobs have been delayed, some of them
canceled and some them delayed starting up in
2018. And that translates into a weaker working
capital figure.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Unidentified Analyst, [65]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Can you be more precise . Actually my model if I get
for example 2011, you have the negative working
capital of [EUR 369 million]. Now I look and it's --
your investment in working capital is [EUR 133
million]. In the worst point, what will be your
investment in working capital [EUR 200 million, EUR
300 milion, EUR 400 million] or stable from now?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Juan Llado Arburua, Técnicas Reunidas, S.A. - 1St
Vice Chairman [66]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
I will advise you to call our CFO or Investor
Relations, because this is not a one-to-one. But we
can get in a one-to-one to you -- with you to the level
of preciseness you want. But here in [open] is very
difficult, you are asking us questions. We are trying
to think about what you are trying to ask us. And it
will be much better we sit together and we clarify all
your -- and give you comfort -- all your questions.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Unidentified Analyst, [67]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
Thank you very much for your time, but I thought this
is a good moment to be open and to give the
information that the market needs because, I'm not
getting the information but I really appreciate your
time, thank you very much

 

 

 

 

 

Conozco este tipo de operativas. Me queda muy claro que hay probabilidad de que pierdan la caja neta porque van a tener que financiar los inicios de proyectos, más grandes y más onerosos en los que el cliente final te traslada parte del coste financiero de la operación (ya no sólo es un proyecto de ingeniería).

Esto afecta a la valoración como decía antes.

¿cuánto va a disminuir la caja neta o entrar directamente en el terreno de tener deuda para financiar las operaciones?. No lo sé, depende mucho de cuándo comienxan los trabajos y sobre todo de las condiciones de facturación de los mismos. Hay clientes que te pagan un tercio up front y otros en los que nos ves un euro hasta pasado 8 meses.

Pero sí me queda claro que el tema de la caja va a pasar a minorar el potencial de valoración de TRE en bolsa.

En 3 semanas tendremos información rica al respecto. Es muy osible que nos coga ya dentro y haya que cruzar los dedos.

Han doblado la compañía con todo lo que significa en desgaste en los procesos de gestión interna, para con suerte ganar un 30% de lo que ganaban.

Grow or dead.

A medio plazo, nunca termina bien.

Yo escucho a menudo en la radio a estos "Gurús" como decís, para mí no lo son pero bueno... y hay que saber filtrar también por el horizonte temporal de cada uno... Roberto Moro e Iturralde, otro "gurú", tienen un timeframe de muy muy corto plazo, sin embargo hay otros como David Galán o Carlos Doblado que son más de largo plazo. Yo de todas maneras les escucho porque me entretienen y siempre puedes coger alguna que otra idea, pero nunca me baso en sus opiniones para tomar una decisión, para eso tengo mi propio criterio. 

No perdamos de vista que es la primera posición del fondo ibérico con precio medio de entrada superior al actual. Es buena inversión seguro a largo plazo.