Re: Farmas USA
AMRN
b2k:
I think AMRN is the first in the long line of very expensive companies that needed a dose of reality to bring them back down to a good buying valuation. Nothing works better then a well placed secondary that says, "Sorry, but no buyers are knocking on our door." I think the company is buyable below $20, but gets to fair value at $15 and cheap below that. I have my next bid at $15.15.
1. Management: 4.8 stars
- Clinical Development: 5 stars (No Breakthrough Therapy yet)
- Manufacturing: 5 stars (Commercial)
- Financial Management: 4 stars (Not profitable yet)
- Commercial Sales: 5 stars (76% Revenue Growth)
- Good Communications: 5 stars
2. Science: 5 stars
They are focused on their purified EPA drug Vascepa. It has outstanding data so far in cardiovascular disease. It showed over 25% reduction in the risk of cardiovascular events, but its not the only drug in development of this kind. They don't have any follow on drugs in the pipeline. It is all about Vascepa.
3. Potential: 5 stars (+156% over 7 years = 22% annual)
Vascepa - $2 Billion
Total Peak Sales = $2 billion * 8 P/S = $16 billion Market Cap peak
4. Financials: 4 stars (Not Profitable Yet)
Cash = $591 million
Cash Burn = $25 million per quarter
More than 2 years cash
5. Risks: 4 stars
-Diversified Pipeline: 1 stars (1 Hit Wonder)
-Stage of Development: 5 stars (Commercial)
-Commercial: 5 (76% Revenue Growth)
-Secondaries: 4 stars (More than 2 years cash)
-Clinical Failures: 5 stars (No failures yet)
Total Ranking: 4.56 stars