Re: Un buen acuerdo - POR 7 (Opinión)
Ese post es una suposición nada mas. De momento no sabemos nada en ningún sentido.
Comunes suben un poquito preferentes en pausa. A seguir esperando...
Ese post es una suposición nada mas. De momento no sabemos nada en ningún sentido.
Comunes suben un poquito preferentes en pausa. A seguir esperando...
It appears that there are three scenarios that are most likely to play out based on what information we have in front of us.
POR6: In this scenario, the debtors move forward with the original plan to wipe out equity. However, this means that Susman and team will move forward with depositions and bring forth their evidence on the allegations of IT. With this, they will attempt to cram down the creditors with FJR and disallowance of claims and use this evidence in an attempt to unravel the current GSA. This will be a major battle in court and is surely NOT what the SNHs want, but they may not have a choice.
POR7-A: In this scenario, we have been given many of the details of how equity will get the reorganized company as opposed to the creditors. Of course, at this point, we do not know how this will be split among the parties. We do know that the allegations against the SNHs will be dropped as part of this deal. This POR does not appear to result in any concessions by JPM or FDIC and the GSA remains intact for the most part based on what these parties have agreed upon with WMI estate. However, I believe Susman and EC with support of SNHs will force the releases to be dropped against all equity classes including TPS which allows them to continue to fight against JPM and FDIC in another court. It will be the negotiation over these releases that will more likely lead us back to POR6 or POR7-B.
POR7-B: In this plan, JPM and FDIC decide to negotiate a deal to get full releases from equity due to the risks involved without them or the risks that exposure of IT of SNHs will lead to GSA demise that could allow equity to reopen many claims that have already been resolved due to the unclean hands of the parties involved. Here, JPM and FDIC decide to compensate equity to avoid the risk of a much larger payment later. Plus, as has been pointed out, they will likely be able to do it with most of WMI estates money anyway.
The most logical option is POR7-B. I sense that JPM and FDIC may not budge enough which could lead back to POR6. This means that we may get an announcement that negotiations have broken down and that the debtors will move forth with the original plan. If that happens, all equity classes will take another hit and we will have to wait for our time in court to battle against the enemy. I think the plan in the works, POR7-A is dead in its tracks due to TPS and that shareholders will not agree to releases for scraps. I am confident that Susman will not allow releases without compensation to equity from JPM and FDIC in POR7-A.
7 Reasons JPM/FDIC Could Help with a Reasonable Settlement
We need a catalyst(s) to make JPM/FDIC finally settle. We may have a few at this juncture:
1) SN's were kicked out of the GSA. That may have been trouble at the next POR 6.x confirmation.
2) Insider Trading. F&R could easily be challenged IF we could prove IT by one or more SN. How can a GSA be F&R when negotiated in bad faith or under coercion?
3) The FDIC is ultimately on the hook for this. They more so than JPM should want to end this as cheaply as possible so giving back the tax refunds and FDIC taking the WMB bonds as they should seems pretty cheap.
4) PJS valuations are in the hands of WMI and their's in ours. Rosen was clearly worried the PJS numbers would surface at some point. The GSA parties do not want valuation hearings.
5) Bair is leaving on July 6 and may not want someone else protecting her legacy.
6) Shareholders seem to have some sway with THJMW. She listens and sometimes acts. Huge wildcard not knowing what shareholders will bring up in court.
7) SG/EC has had 6 additional months since the last confirmation hearing to figure out how to beat this thing. They now have new EC members who could bring with them new information/tactics. Further, many folks here have sent additional information and docs to the EC/SG but never hear back what was further researched or got SG's attention/traction
Buena herramienta para ver en que invierten las grandes Ballenas
http://stockpickr.com/pro/portfolio/appaloosa-management/?cm_ven=spprofl
- "Tepper sold out of technology laggard Cisco(CSCO_), General Motors(GM_), whose stock he presumably acquired via IPO and held for a brief period, as well as Dow components Johnson & Johnson(JNJ_), JPMorgan Chase(JPM_) and Intel(INTC_). "
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229110613000000000002.pdf
getting ready for battle? From AKR website.
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Es decir en terminos netos crees que estan preparando la batalla contra el plan de beneficiar a las comunes?
Estimada Chikis
Sería importante que leas este tema en el foro de yahoo, porque existe algunas interpretacionescon respecto a esta información
saludos