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Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

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Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?
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#1090

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Aunque es indudable que es una mala noticia me quedo con este párrafo:

“The Delhi HC noted that the CCI order directing investigation was neither arbitrary nor unreasonable. In its judgment, the HC observed that it found no reason to interfere with the CCI order directing a probe”

Porque al fin y al cabo, ha rechazado una solicitud claramente dirigida a ralentizar la investigación... quiero decir, que entiendo del texto que Monsanto había dicho que la investigación no procedía y el tribunal parece que sencillamente se niega a interferir porque no es irrazonable ni arbitraria... dos aspectos que diría que solo son demostrables si es muy flagrante la improcedencia... a poco que tenga una justificación los tribunales no se meten con una mera investigación... Vaya, si he entendido bien.... yo lo leo así...
#1091

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Llegó la noticia esperada...
 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-25/bayer-said-to-reach-deals-on-big-share-of-125-000-roundup-suits?sref=dJOSAJZH 

No puedo leer los detalles por ser de bloomberg. Pero lo que me deja leer no me ha gustado porque no acaba con el tema (no alcanza el total de las reclamaciones sino sólo una parte) y encima por un importe mucho más alto: 10.000 M $

A ver cómo se lo toma el Mercado, a mí no me ha gustado pero yo no soy el Mercado claro XD. Aunque ahora ya me cuadra por qué Bayer tuvo un comportamiento relativo tan malo la semana pasada.

"Lo que todo el mundo sabe en la Bolsa a mí ya no me interesa" André Kostolany

#1092

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Independientemente de la noticia,que afectara si no esta ya descontada,veo resistencia fuerte en 61(antes dividendo 64) y soporte 52. 
#1093

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Te pego todo el texto (yo me lo estoy leyendo ahora): 


Bayer AG has reached verbal agreements to resolve a substantial portion of an estimated 125,000 U.S. cancer lawsuits over use of its Roundup weedkiller, according to people familiar with the negotiations.




The deals, which have yet to be signed and cover an estimated 50,000 to 85,000 suits, are part of a $10 billion Bayer plan to end a costly legal battle the company inherited when it acquired Monsanto in 2018, the people said. While some lawyers are still holding out, payouts for settled cases will range from a few million dollars to a few thousand each, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly.








A surge in Roundup claims, along with some big court losses, have weighed on Bayer since the Leverkusen, Germany-based company spent $63 billion to buy agricultural giant Monsanto -- which developed the weedkiller. The shares are down about 40% since the deal closed in June 2018, wiping out some $39 billion of Bayer’s market value.




“A settlement of all U.S. lawsuits for $10 billion should be a major trigger for Bayer’s depressed share price,” Markus Mayer, an analyst at Baader Bank, said.




Bayer shares gained 4.4% in pre-market trading Monday, according to Tradegate.

Bayer is likely to announce the settlements, which need approval from the company’s supervisory board, in June, people familiar with the negotiations said. None of the deals are signed, though plaintiffs’ lawyers are expected to do so the day of the announcement, the people said.


Chris Loder, a U.S.-based spokesman for Bayer, declined to comment on specifics about the talks, but said Friday the company has made “progress in the mediations” that arose from lawsuits. “The company will not speculate about settlement outcomes or timing,” Loder said in an emailed statement. “As we have said previously, the company will consider a resolution if it is financially reasonable and provides a process to resolve potential future litigation.”


The exact number of settlements so far wasn’t immediately clear, but the estimate of at least 125,000 claims is more than twice the amount of Roundup litigation cases Bayer has disclosed so far.


Before now, a complete tally was hard to pin down. In regulatory filings, the company only acknowledged filed and served cases of about 52,500 as of April. Tens of thousands more are being held in abeyance by plaintiffs’ lawyers under agreements with Bayer, people familiar with the negotiations said. Ken Feinberg, the chief Roundup mediator, said in January the total was 85,000 and would likely increase.


Bayer has said it will earmark $8 billion to resolve all current cases, including those held in abeyance, according to some of the people familiar with the settlements. The deals so far involve many of the strongest claims against the company, the people said. It’s unclear how much would go to those who have now settled and what’s left for the holdouts.


Another $2 billion will be set aside to cover future suits linking the weedkiller to non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, people familiar with the talks said.

Still Being Sold


Under terms of the deals, Roundup will continue to be sold in the U.S. for use in backyards and farms without any safety warning, and plaintiffs’ attorneys will agree to stop taking new cases or advertising for new clients, the people said.

Because some of the Roundup cases are consolidated before U.S. District Judge Vince Chhabria in San Francisco, he may need to approve the settlement of those before him, the people said.


To be sure, with tens of thousands of cases still unresolved, there’s no guarantee the company will remain within the $8 billion it has budgeted for filed and backlogged lawsuits. Bayer complicated matters last month by backing out of some deals and demanding lawyers take less because of losses tied to the Covid-19 pandemic. That could prompt more lawyers to take their cases out of the settlement, the people said.


Feinberg, the Washington-based lawyer tapped by Chhabria to oversee settlement negotiations, said last week he remains “cautiously optimistic a national settlement will be reached.” He acknowledged fallout from Covid-19 “has slowed momentum” on the talks.

Cancer Claims



The settlements are designed to resolve claims that Roundup, whose active ingredient is the chemical glyphosate, caused non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in some users. The company denies that Roundup or glyphosate cause cancer, a position backed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Still, after Bayer’s court losses spurred a surge in new suits, investors such as Elliott Management Corp. urged the company to seek a comprehensive settlement.


Feinberg dispatched mediators to oversee meetings between Bayer lawyers and individual plaintiff attorneys, who negotiated solely on behalf of their clients. The company has worked out various payout schedules, though none will exceed three years, the people said.


At this point, only a handful of lawyers are holding out for larger payouts, the people said. James Onder, a St. Louis-based attorney handling more than 24,000 Roundup cases, said last week he’s rebuffed settlement offers that would leave his clients with as little as $5,000 each.


Bayer’s overtures “have been insulting,” Onder said in an interview. The company is attempting “to strong-arm the most vulnerable in our society into accepting minuscule settlements, hoping they will cower in fear to Monsanto’s repeated idle threats of bankruptcy.” Onder said he’s preparing for trials in St. Louis next year.


The people familiar with the talks have said Bayer lawyers used the threat of putting Monsanto into bankruptcy to get people to accept lower payments. Other companies -- including Purdue Pharma LLP -- filed for Chapter 11 protection from creditors to deal with a burgeoning wave a lawsuits over its OxyContin opioid painkiller.

Challenge Verdicts


In a surprising move, Bayer is also pressing ahead with appeals of early cases it lost in court, the people said. All together, juries from three trials ordered the company to pay a combined $2.4 billion in damages. Judges later slashed those awards to $191 million.

The first Roundup verdict came from a state court jury in California, which held Monsanto liable for a grounds keeper’s lymphoma in 2018 and awarded him $289 million in damages. A judge later cut that to $78.5 million. Oral arguments in the appeal are scheduled for June 2 in San Francisco.


Refusing to include past verdicts in the settlement may be designed to send a signal on future claims that Bayer won’t just roll over and pay, said Carl Tobias, a University of Richmond professor who specializes in mass-tort law.

“It says they’ll fight ‘em through the appeals, which can take years to resolve,” Tobias said. “In the meantime, people will be dying.”


The deals also limit eligibility for payments to non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma cases and those where plaintiffs died of that specific cancer over the last decade, according to a Bayer term sheet reviewed in January by Bloomberg News. Roundup users that blame the product for causing their multiple-myeloma cancers get nothing under the settlement.


The consolidated case is In re: Roundup Products Liability Litigation, MDL 2741, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California (San Francisco).


— With assistance by Joel Rosenblatt

(Updates with analyst comment in fourth paragraph, pre-trading in fifth) 
#1094

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

No sé, estoy leyéndola y releyéndola analizando escenarios y posibles motivaciones y no lo veo claro (ahora mismo la cotización lee el tema en clave positiva +5.27%, aunque es una subida DECEPCIONANTEMENTE TIBIA para la magnitud y tiempo esperado, también es cierto que la propia noticia dice que aun no es en firme ni está firmado por tanto)... Aun así me pregunto… ¿tendría sentido dedicar 10 mil M$ a cerrar acuerdos dejando abiertos 40 mil casos, un tercio, ni más ni menos, si estos son relevantes? ¿no es más probable que sean aquellos casos que Bayer decía que no tenían el más mínimo sentido y por eso ni tan siquiera les paga nada y los deja fuera del acuerdo*?... porque la inversa es un sinsentido total: pago 8 mil M$ y no cierro el 100% del asunto (de hecho me dejo sin resolver un tercio de los casos… Si eso es un acuerdo financieramente razonable que venga Dios y lo vea)... 
 
Aunque es cierto lo que dices, parece que no deja cerrado el tema según la noticia de eso no hay duda: 
 
Another $2 billion will be set aside to cover future suits linking the weedkiller to non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, people familiar with the talks said. 
 
To be sure, with tens of thousands of cases still unresolved, there’s no guarantee the company will remain within the $8 billion it has budgeted for filed and backlogged lawsuits. Bayer complicated matters last month by backing out of some deals and demanding lawyers take less because of losses tied to the Covid-19 pandemic. That could prompt more lawyers to take their cases out of the settlement, the people said. 
 

Me gusta mucho estos párrafos por cierto: 

In a surprising move, Bayer is also pressing ahead with appeals of early cases it lost in court, the people said. All together, juries from three trials ordered the company to pay a combined $2.4 billion in damages. Judges later slashed those awards to $191 million. 

Refusing to include past verdicts in the settlement may be designed to send a signal on future claims that Bayer won’t just roll over and pay, said Carl Tobias, a University of Richmond professor who specializes in mass-tort law.

 

*El párrafo siguiente estaría enmarcado en dicha hipótesis, bajo ésta, el tal James Onder representaría a mucha demanda ilegítima y por tanto no le ofrecen cantidad relevante o bien lo dejan fuera del acuerdo: 

At this point, only a handful of lawyers are holding out for larger payouts, the people said. James Onder, a St. Louis-based attorney handling more than 24,000 Roundup cases, said last week he’s rebuffed settlement offers that would leave his clients with as little as $5,000 each. 

#1095

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

No he hablado más para no gafar la subida, pero no ha ido mal... además de menos a más, ya que empezó subiendo sólo un 4% para acabar casi en máximos intradía

"Lo que todo el mundo sabe en la Bolsa a mí ya no me interesa" André Kostolany

#1096

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Jajaja! que bueno que seas supersticioso! 😂

Sí que ha sido buen día... el volumen final no ha estado mal pero esperaba más la verdad