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Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

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Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?
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Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?
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#1297

"Profit warning" de Bayer

Aquí el comunicado. He puesto orden a 46,60 veremos si entra 


Leverkusen, September 30, 2020
- Bayer AG announced today that the company confirms its adjusted outlook for 2020 and expects 2021 sales at approximately 2020 levels despite significant headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the agricultural market. Core earnings per share in 2021 are expected to be slightly below 2020 levels at constant exchange rates. To further advance Bayer in a market environment that continues to be challenging, its Board of Management has decided to introduce additional operational savings of more than 1.5 billion euros annually as of 2024, on top of annual earnings contributions of 2.6 billion euros as of 2022, which were announced in November 2018. The incremental cash flow from these efforts will mainly be allocated for investments in further innovation, profitable growth opportunities and debt reduction.

"Despite the difficult market environment, the urgent need for innovative healthcare and agriculture solutions has never been more evident. Our strategy of building leading businesses in life sciences remains unchanged," said Werner Baumann, Chairman of the Board of Management of Bayer AG. "We believe the additional measures are necessary to accelerate our overall transformation, generate margin improvements and thus maintain our competitive profile. They will help mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on our business. We must adapt our cost structures to the changes in market conditions and at the same time generate resources for further investment in innovation and growth. We also remain committed to reducing our net financial debt."

Like most companies, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to headwinds in the 2020 fiscal year for Bayer, with significant currency effects presenting an additional burden on sales and earnings growth. However, Bayer expects to offset the impact of lower revenues in the Crop Science and Pharmaceuticals divisions through appropriate countermeasures, such as the acceleration of existing efficiency programs and cost contingencies. "We can therefore confirm our adjusted outlook for 2020," Baumann said.

For 2021, growth and cash flow generation are expected to be lower than planned and can only be partially compensated by further savings measures. The company now expects 2021 sales to come in at around the 2020 levels, with 2021 core earnings per share slightly below 2020 levels, based on constant exchange rates.
The direct and indirect effects of the pandemic will be deeper than expected on the Crop Science business. The agricultural sector, in which Bayer has a leading role, is characterized by reduced growth expectations due to low commodity prices for major crops, intense competition in soy, and reduced biofuel consumption. This is compounded by negative currency effects, some of which are significant as in the case of the Brazilian Real. This situation is unlikely to improve considerably in the near-term. Against that background, Bayer expects to take non-cash impairment charges in the mid to high-single-digit billion-euros range on assets in the agricultural business.

The Pharmaceuticals business is anticipated to return to growth in 2021. To strengthen the mid- and longer-term growth potential of the Pharmaceuticals business, further increases in investments are planned to bolster the product pipeline with a next-generation innovation platform featuring novel mechanisms of action as well as in-licensing agreements and bolt-on acquisitions.

The Consumer Health business has shown strong business performance and expects to outpace peer growth in the coming years. The division will complement its organic growth with smaller bolt-on acquisitions and in-licensing opportunities in high-potential segments over the coming years.

The additional savings will benefit the profile of Bayer in all divisions. Bayer also plans to further optimize its working capital and capital expenditures. Further, the company is reviewing options to exit non-strategic businesses or brands below the divisional level. The Board of Management intends to leave Bayer's dividend policy, which delivers 30 to 40 percent of core earnings per share to stockholders each year, in place. Payouts in the coming years are expected at the lower end of this corridor rather than at the upper end in previous years.

The additional operational savings measures, which may also lead to additional job reductions, are currently in the early stages of development. They will be discussed with the relevant internal bodies, including employee representatives, and announced once finalized. Bayer will implement the planned measures fairly and responsibly.

The company will present a detailed forecast for 2021 along with an updated mid-term outlook when it publishes its results for the full year 2020.
#1298

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Totalmente de acuerdo
#1299

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

No era normal esa sangria constante desde hace 3 meses y estoy seguro que los grandes ya lo sabian
#1300

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Hombre, evidentemente...
Para preparar un comunicado así hay un montón de gente implicada de un montón de departamentos. Ya no es que esa gente venda, es que esa gente habla, se lo comunica a sus contactos en fondos, a sus cuñados, primos...

Incluso ayer fue curioso cómo de repente a las 3 de la tarde sin noticias a aparentes Bayer empezó a caer fuertísimo, y porque cerró la sesión sino se hundía... Las últimas ventas de quién se enteró de que el comunicado ya iba a ser al día siguiente e igual pensaba que tardaría un poco más y podría seguir espaciando sus ventas...


"Lo que todo el mundo sabe en la Bolsa a mí ya no me interesa" André Kostolany

#1301

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

¿Valor para comprar unas cuantas?. ¿Dejarlas en el cajón sin mirar nada?. ¿Y dentro de unos años ver si han crecido algo?
Lo está pasando mal y está débil. Pero tal vez en estos momentos es cuando hay que tener cierta perspectiva del valor y del tipo de empresa que es. (digo)


#1302

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Es una decisión personal, con la que está cayendo como para recomendar compra... Lo que no recomendaría es vender después de este panic mode.

"Lo que todo el mundo sabe en la Bolsa a mí ya no me interesa" André Kostolany

#1303

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Bayer está tocada. Que es una gran compañia es verdad pero que tiene un gran problema también. Se la han jugado con Monsanto y ahora no saben cómo salir de la trampa. Esto supone deshacerse de activos y posiblemente eliminar el dividendo temporalmente. Mucho peligro ahí.
#1304

Re: Análisis de Bayer: ¿Buen momento para entrar en Bayer AG (BAY)?

Esperaba un rebote que confirmara que lo de ayer fue la capitulación en el valor. Por eso mi opinión y recomendación en Bolsa vale cero.

"Lo que todo el mundo sabe en la Bolsa a mí ya no me interesa" André Kostolany