#125449
Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
No pretendía ofenderte, pero si ha sido así, discúlpame.
Saludos.
Saludos.
Freedom is driven by determination
Anchoring or recency bias
“In a few months, I expect to see the stock market much higher than today.” These were the words of Irving Fisher – America’s distinguished and famous economist and professor of economics at Yale University – only 14 days before Wall Street crashed on Black Tuesday, 29th October 1929. Only days after the crash, the Harvard Economic Society offered this analysis to its subscribers: “A severe depression such as 1920–21 is outside the range of probability. We are not facing a protracted liquidation.”
Most forecasters predict a future quite like the recent past. One reason is that things generally continue as they have been, and so major changes just don’t occur very often. Another reason is that most people don’t do “zero-based” forecasting, but start with the current observation or normal range and then add or subtract a bit as they think is appropriate. A final reason is that real “sea changes” are extremely difficult to foretell. That’s why some of the best-remembered (or infamous) forecasts are the ones that extrapolated current conditions or trends, but turned out to be badly wrong. Seismic changes in financial markets are generally unforeseen by most people.
Forecasters simply stick too closely to the current level, and on those rare occasions when they call for change, they often underestimate the potential magnitude. Very few people predicted that oil would decline significantly back in June 2014, and fewer still mentioned the possibility that we would see $60 per barrel within six months.
Predictions of a persistent, durable Cold War sounded reasonable in 1984; the same prediction would have sounded less reasonable just a few years later. In the early 20th century, forecasters were warning about “peak oil” and US energy dependence on the rest of the world. Now the US is the leading producer of oil in the world and has dramatically reduced its need for oil imports. More generally, economic forecasts can over-hype short-term bursts of economic growth, overlooking the fact that such bursts tend to be transient. In short, most forecasting is done incrementally and few predictors contemplate order-of-magnitude changes.
The same bias that makes commodity forecasters use the current environment (demand, supply and price) as the baseline for a forecast also influences the behaviour of the consumer of that same forecast. This is where commodity forecasts can be especially powerful and dangerous.
Sainsbury, Peter. Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits And Profits In The Commodity Casino . Edición de Kindle.