¿No os parece AT&T una empresa mucho más interesante que Telefónica ? Adjunto análisis de una revista americana.
Overview & Current Events:
AT&T is one of the largest telecommunications companies in the United States when measured by market capitalization ($245 billion). Its only competitor of similar size is Verizon Communications. AT&T provides mobile, broadband, video and other telecom services. It also operates WarnerMedia as well as satellite TV provider DIRECTV.
In late April, AT&T reported (4/24/19) financial results for the 2019 first quarter. Revenue of $44.8 billion missed analyst estimates by $270 million, while adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.86 matched analyst expectations. Revenue increased 18% for the first quarter, primarily driven by the Time Warner acquisition that closed in June 2018. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.86 rose 1.2% from the same quarter a year ago. Revenue growth was heavily offset by rising expenses and a higher share count. AT&T’s core mobility segment grew revenue by 2.9% for the quarter, thanks to 179,000 net postpaid smartphone customer additions during the quarter.
Growth Prospects & Safety:
AT&T’s biggest growth catalyst is the massive $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner, a content giant that owns multiple media brands, including TNT, TBS, CNN, and HBO. Time Warner also owns a movie studio as well as sports rights across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NCAA. AT&T has made additional bolt-on acquisitions to boost its growing content businesses as well and is working to maximize the advertising capacity of its content. We are conservatively anticipating annualized earnings-per-share growth of ~3% per year for the foreseeable future.
AT&T scores well in terms of dividend safety, particularly relative to the company’s exceptionally high yield. The company has increased its dividend for 35 consecutive years. Separately, AT&T is on pace for a dividend payout ratio of just 57% in the ongoing fiscal year. And importantly, AT&T paid off over $2 billion of debt in the first quarter, ending the period with a net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio of 2.8x. AT&T will pursue additional debt reduction in part through asset sales, such as the recent deals to sell its stake in Hulu and the $2.2 billion sale of its Hudson Yards space. AT&T expects to end 2019 with a leverage ratio of 2.5x. While some investors have expressed concerns with AT&T’s debt, the company reported a more-than-adequate interest coverage ratio of 3.3x in fiscal 2018.
Valuation:
AT&T’s management team expects the company to generate adjusted earnings-per-share of about $3.60 in fiscal 2019. Using this earnings estimate, the company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 9.3. AT&T traded at an average price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 over the last decade; we have set a fair price-to-earnings ratio of 12 for AT&T. If AT&T’s price-to-earnings ratio can expand to our fair value estimate over the next 5 years, this will boost its total returns by around 5.2% per year during this time period. Overall, we believe that AT&T is capable of delivering annualized returns of 14.4% per year from its current price thanks to its high yield (6.1%), earnings growth (3.1%), and compelling potential for valuation expansion (5.2%).
Key Statistics, Ratios, & Metrics
*Dividend Yield: 6.1% *10-Year Div. Growth Rate: 2.2% *Most Recent Annual Div. Increase: 2.0% *Sector: Telecommunications *Dividend History: 35 years of increases *Fair Value: $43 *Payout Ratio: 57%