Además de ese artículo se incluye un editorial (que no es de acceso libre y que por eso copio abajo). "Nuestros cálculos", indican , "sugieren que en muchos países, incluyendo Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Australia y España, el precio medio de la vivienda está a niveles record en relación a los sueldos y alquileres. En otras palabras, parecen más sobrevalorados que en anteriores picos desde los que se produjeron bruscas caídas de precios en términos reales. Hoy la inflación es mucho más baja que en anteriores caídas, por lo que es necesario que una mayor parte del ajuste se traduzca en una caída en los precios nominales. Si es así, hay una posibilidad de que por primera vez los precios de las viviendas caigan simultáneamente en varios países".
A quienes desprecian las advertencias sobre el riesgo de estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria por el mero hecho de que hasta ahora no se haya producido, "The Economist" advierte de que la duración del fenómeno "no ha hecho que el mercado de la vivienda sea más seguro, sino más vulnerable. La primera ley de las burbujas es que se inflan más tiempo del que nadie espera. La segunda ley es que al final estallan".
Homing in on the risks
Inflated house prices pose an even bigger risk to the world economy than oil
Jun 3rd 2004
"OVER the past 12 months the world economy has grown at an annual rate more than 5%, possibly its fastest pace for two decades. How long can the party last? Most economists have identified three potential threats to this healthy rate of growth: higher oil prices, higher American interest rates and a sharp slowdown in China's economy. All three certainly need watching. Yet there is another risk that is just as great—the overvalued prices of houses in many countries. A slide in house prices, either by itself or combined with any of the other threats, could cause serious economic damage.
Economists generally devote much less attention to global house prices than to share prices. That is a pity, because studies have shown that swings in real house prices can have much bigger effects on economies than swings in share prices. Households in rich countries have, on average, twice as much of their wealth tied up in housing as in equities. Most people also find it much easier to borrow against their home than against shares. Over the past few years this has allowed consumers from America to Australia to turn capital gains on their homes into cash, helping to prop up spending.
In many countries real house prices, after adjusting for inflation, have been rising at their fastest pace ever. Property markets look frothy not just in America, Britain and Australia, but in China, South Africa and Dubai as well. The housing-price bubble has been partly fuelled by easy money: the average short-term interest rate in the G7 economies is at its lowest in recorded history. But not for much longer: America's Federal Reserve is expected to start raising rates this month.
Our calculations suggest that in many countries, including America, Britain, Australia and Spain, average house prices stand at record levels in relation to wages and rents (see article). In other words, they look more overvalued than at previous peaks from which prices fell sharply in real terms. Today inflation is much lower than in earlier downturns, so more of the adjustment may need to come from a fall in nominal prices. If so, there is a risk that for the first time ever, house prices could simultaneously fall in several countries.
Suppose house prices fell by 10% over a period of four years, implying a real decline of 20%. According to calculations by the OECD, that might reduce consumer spending (which accounts for two-thirds of GDP) by more than 2% in Britain and 1% in America. To return to their long-term average, house prices need to fall by more than this. If so, this is likely to do more harm than the recent surge in oil prices.
