España
Yo también tengo otras mil a 3,09 a muy largo; no las compré con la idea de que si llegaban a 3,30 vender, pero reconozco que como pierda los 2,90 se puede ir muy abajo. Hay que joderse con los bajistas, como se han cebado aquí. Saludos.
El problema es que si pierde el soporte quedara en caida libre, no hay referencias. Y el volumen de hoy ha sido monstruoso, hay que remontarse a 2005 para encontrar uno superior
Algo pasa en Gamesa, está claro que no está cayendo porque la gente se ha olvidado de este valor, sino porque da la sensación de que quieren hacer saltar los stops de 2.90.
Entonces habrá que estar pendientes, gracias.
Aguantando como una roca!
Pues no me ha saltado el stop de milagro, al parecer ha llegado a estar a 2.91 ...
En 2,90 me hubiera saltado a mi.
¿Alguien se quiere aprovechar de los resultados que publicará el 23? ¿O que pasa?
Solrac
Como veo que te gusta y estás siguiendo el valor...(incluso para Patatu y el foro)
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Agradecimientos a Bank of America por su back up...(en especial a su equipo de renovables)
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Matt's been marketing this week, crossing continents and seeing almost 40 investors to discuss the renewable sector. Yes 40 people still are willing to listen to an hour of Matt talk market caps into oblivion and himself out of a job.
Bottom line is that almost everyone has given up on the sector. Contrarians might suggest we should be buying (and some have been doing exactly that) but we could probably have made the same argument six months ago. A sector with no free cash flow or dividend will struggle to find valuation support. Misallocation of capital, poor returns and probable write downs make the book value irrelevant. Renewables and austerity don't go together. Its a simple thesis, but worked pretty well so far.
Which leaves us more bearish than Bear McBear, winner of the most bearish competition.
A brief summary of his thoughts and investor feedback:
· Vestas - Be careful what you wish for. New management may bring skeletons out the closet (think GDF, VIE, ENEL....). Company seems out of control to us and we think you should continue to steer clear. US market likely to see a collapse in orders in q2/3.
· Investors saw management (well, what's left) this week and came away worried rather than interested. Bull view is there must be some value here, when will Alstom bid? Wishful thinking perhaps.
· Gamesa - poor product portfolio, consensus margins too high. Nuff said.
· Investors still struggle to see what Iberdrola see in GAM? Emerging market strategy was working but now the Chinese guys are warning too. Too scared to short in case of a bid.
· In Solar - REC is a casualty not a survivor. Solarworld are putting all their eggs in the protectionist basket. US trade ruling is due in early march, too tough to call. Q-cells writing off €500mn of debt shows consolidation will take a while yet.
· Investors are also nervous. If the Germans are getting fed up, who will pay solar subsidies? If the UK can do 700MW, what about a country with some sun! Grid parity still a pipe-dream and if they want some exposure they will buy the Chinese guys, not Europeans.
· ANA/ABG/EDPR - Matt thinks too much risk of Spanish taxes. Wait until may for the EDPR strategy update to reflect three gorges. ANA has exposure to cyclical activities (waste, transport, construction). Less demand for a CSP plant from ABG given the PV collapse.
· And investors don't want to touch Spain.
· EGP - a call on Italian power prices and we are neither bullish or bearish.
· Investors think Monti wants power prices down to make Italian industry more competitive. May take a while (yes its been broked for 10 years) but consensus likely to put a low multiple on current earnings.
· Andritz - good company, well run, but cyclical and consensus has no cycle built in to numbers. Pulp orders to be weak in 2012 so consensus needs to come down for 2013.
· Investors love it. Quality. Buy and hold. Management assure me pulp orders are on the way. Share buyback will limit downside.