Farmas USA

Qué bárbaro la que está cayendo.

mvto del €/$ hoy

Y HZNP en verde, no hay quien entienda esto.

A ver si de ahí, nos da un respiro y visita la parte baja del canal.

ACAD

Pongo un artículo sobre el futuro de la empresa. He copiado además algunos comentarios del mismo que comparan la situación con RLYP (farma que pasa de hacer ensayos a ventas). Lo pongo porque NVAX estará en la misma situación y hay datos interesantes en esa situación como el quemado de caja, si se sabrán los datos de ventas, el canal por el que se hace, los partners... Seguramente muchos lo tendríais claro, pero para mí es ilustrativo; también la manera cómo todo esto afecta al precio en estos momentos.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3970155-acadia-will-go-fda-approval
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I would not expect any further information like pricing 3 days later. The only take away from the earnings CC is some idea of how much cash they are burning. They wouldnt give any guidance or numbers on the last earnings CC, but you would have to guess its alot, probably to the tune of over $300M for 2016 which is what RLYP guided in a similar situation of going from development to commercial stage and hiring a sales force from scratch. I would actually expect ACAD to burn more as they should be putting money into MAA filing experts and they also plan to do additional trials.
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I am using RLYP as a comparison, they guided $300M cash burn for 2016 and they are in a very similar situation as far as CAPEX. From scratch sales force, lots of hiring, high executive salaries. Did you notice the proxy statement that came out on 4/29? Davis and Co are giving themselves some nice bonuses on top of their salaries this year up for vote at the shareholders meeting. Have you seen the new car discussions on cafe pharma? What does a fleet of 135 brand new Fords cost even with a bulk purchase discount?
You also have additional trials planned for agitation, the ongoing ADP trial, plus the post-marketing studies and databases the FDA is requiring. This is all very similar to RLYP s situation.
So I think RLYP guidance of $300M cash burn for 2016 is a pretty good guide as basis for what ACAD will burn. And of course ACAD would provide no guidance for 2016 cash burn on the last earnings call, and I think one of the reasons could be they learned from RLYP's, whos shares suffered significantly upon that guidance. I also noticed they made a comment on this mornings call about EU partnership that they have not yet decided if they will partner for EU, and said "Its not the right time for that". All up until now we have been hearing that they plan to partner for EU and supposedly that is what they were waiting for to file the MAA. Now it is they plan to file the MAA alone and dont feel it is appropriate to partner for EU at this time. Another lesson from RLYP, who sold away the rights for peanuts before the MAA was even filed. Now they lost considerable buy out value for a measly upfront payment that doesnt help them with their CAPEX problems. Big mistake there, so I cant help but to think ACAD is paying attention to the other companies going it alone or at least attempting to and possibly learning from those mistakes.
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So many parallels to RLYP, a dev stage going commercial on its own. Wont have enough cash for operations going it alone without raising. I suspect they will burn through the entire Jan offering by end of 2016 as this year is going to be very expensive. They have already demonstrated that their management style is to raise funds while the tank is still half full as they had well over $240M in January when they raised, which is why everyone was caught with their pants down at the time. In hindsight it was a smart move because the share price is not much higher now post-approval than it was back in January. In fact it was much higher in December.
I expect this to trade with the indexes for the next few months. Seems they are going to be tight lipped on sales. They are going though a specialty pharmacy so script numbers wont be available. They dont seem like the type of management that will do what RLYP is doing providing monthly updates on the scripts. It might not be until 3rd quarter call that we actually get any sales numbers and those will be dismal at best as they have guided to expect slow uptake.
The real catalyst is the ADP data. Dont know why it takes 6 months to put the data together, especially with all the "experts" and money they throw at these things. We have already seen 1 delay, but I suspect that was deliberately done so that ADP data availability did not influence the FDA to delay the PDP approval. Anyways December is a long ways off for ADP data, and in this bumpy market I expect a lot of ups and downs between now and then, so hold on tight if you are holding. If this is a long term multi-year holding for you, you should be good to go.
Worst case is ADP data is similar to earlier PDP trials (not real great) and they sell the company ASAP in Q3 or Q4 before the data comes out. If the data is good, they might just go it along. The egos here are big enough to try and take on Big Pharma, but they will definitely need to raise more cash end of 2016 or early 2017 if going it alone for the long term. Nobody knows what the market will be like going into the election and this global slowdown with interest rate hikes. So still some risk there.

Retiro lo dicho

AMRN

mejor me vuelvo a mi cueva

creo que por hoy haré lo mismo (he dejado orden de compra de un paquetito de ACAD para hacer un metesaca). Las 19 posiciones que tengo en DE_GIRO rojas (ni el XETRA-GOLD en verde) :(

ESPR

Viendo que ronda los $15, he tomado una posición modesta (225 acciones)... la idea es dejarla ahí y y olvidarme de ella por un buen tiempo.