Bioinvest - MTSL Issue 834
http://www.bioinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MTSL-Issue-834.pdf
UPDATES: ANTH, OGXI
SENTIMENT — Nothing Like A Big Biotech Takeover Priced Above Expectations — Although it had been in play since late-March, speculators and arbs had Medivation stock price hovering in the low-mid 60-range. When Pfizer scooped MDVN at ~$81 per share, well above the previously disclosed $58 bid from Sanofi, it provided solace to biotech investors in several ways. First, if the bidding war was won by anyone, it was won by MDVN’s management and Board. This is important as the BidAsk spread that had kept a lid on more M&A has now been resolved in favor of the smaller biotechs. Big Pharmas ended up with the short straw – PFE had to pay up and SNYlost out. Next, as several mega caps have declared they would be out shopping and have been to some extent, a deal the size of the $14 billion MDVN takeout suggests that – despite widespread concerns on drug pricing (e.g., MYL and EpiPens) and the upcoming Presidential election – they are not waiting to spend the big bucks. Of course, investors will place bets on what companies are next (see M&A below). Some are more obvious (MTSL Recs BMRN and INCY) but many are not that apparent. Nonetheless, the deal brings the bios back into the investor limelight during the summer doldrums after the BMYOpdivo shock.
Technically, after an expected profit-taking period, it was the price paid for MDVN that was the positive surprise (not that they were eventually acquired) and lit a new speculative fire in the biotech indices. As we said last Issue, the action remains primarily in the large- and mid-cap stocks, with the small caps lagging and mostly awaiting key catalysts. That is, until Mrs. Clinton spoke again, and we went from an overbought levels to oversold almost immediately. Just at the point the shorts were throwing in the towel on heavily shorted stocks (e.g., PBYI, ONCE, BLUE, NVAX), they hit them hard and fast as bids disappeared during the end of summer vacation.
Once More, Hillary Reverses The Good Times Just when investors thought it was ok to step back into the biotech waters, the POTUS hopeful Clinton singled out Mylan Labs and the biopharmaceuticals for taking large, unjustifiable price increases on a highly, popular single-sourced drug for allergies, the Epi-Pen. Her comments called for an immediate lowering of the price and sent another “price control” shockwave through the biotech industry (see NBI chart). Until then, short-sellers were starting to feel real pain (i.e., the most heavily shorted stocks have rebounded the most), technical players were forced to take the long side with supportive charts and hints of new, non-biotech capital coming back into the sector were apparent. Since Mylan (a generic drug company) acquired Dey Pharma in 2007, it has increased the price of Epi-Pen from ~$100 to ~$600. Like Turing Pharma and Valeant, one bad apple don’t spoil the whole bunch. However, the election is closing in fast and while Hillary has made some gains mostly on the missteps of Trump, the visibility of the Epi-Pen saga (e.g., this affects millions of children) was too easy and also unavoidable as the press reports admonished MYL. Mylan is not a biotech company, but that doesn’t matter. While we agree that what MYL has done is unacceptable and egregious, in our view both the government and investors’ reactions should not be to throw all the babies into the dirty bath water. The day after HC’s comments and similar ones by members of Congress, MYL effectively lowered the price of the EPI-Pen via saving cards and patient assistance programs. But with traders and new, non-sophisticated players recently joining the long side of biotech for the first time in a while, they are the first to exit (and even go short again) at the moment such macro/political comments emerge that appear to negatively affect the industry – despite only select examples causing the problems. As the result, the improvement in sentiment has quickly reversed. With the recent mega-merger excitement, biotech stocks have entered bullish territory. We have been cautiously optimistic as the gains were mostly focused on the large cap names – as small caps have for the most part been left behind. There have been exceptions, and a growing list of them, as the Big Mergers have had a trickledown effect to the mid-cap stocks as well. But with the Election around the corner, we were worried about such rhetoric getting louder. The Epi-Pen timing, therefore, could not have been worse – there are still two months left and the political noise is likely to become deafening – and completely ignore the good news happening in the sector. With the HC statement, it already has. On the other hand, we always believe – based upon sector contacts – that in reality Clinton’s anti-industry bark will be much worse than her bite once elected. Even the White House took a more cautious tone in criticizing rising drug costs, refusing to comment on the decisions of an individual company. Either way, the Black Swan of government drug price controls will always be out there, and the volatility of biotech stocks will remain heightened during these periods. At the end of the day, successful clinical trials, FDA approvals and sales/earnings growth from those innovations will drive stock prices over time. Several MTSL stocks are awaiting key clinical events this month (MDCO), this quarter (NVAX) and by the end of the year (e.g., ANTH, NKTR, ZIOP) that will have a greater effect on the value of their respective companies than the Election noise. If we have seen anything, while no doubt painful, these big speed bumps create good buying opportunities. By Thursday, the NBI broke through the important 200-day MA (2960.04) and closed just above it (2961.78). Let’s see if the biotech indices can hold the long-term support levels. Another unexpected merger or positive late-stage data would help