Pay attention to the FDIC and how they seem to be moving into background in this case. I have a suspicion that FDIC is seriously talking to JPM behind closed doors and explaining the situation and how this whole thing is going to have to go down.
Notice that the FDIC suddenly backed off on the POR, especially when money was to be gifted to both JPM and FDIC. Even though WMI would love to wipe out equity, this would not go down well for reasons already discussed.
Also, notice that FDIC did not want to object to the examiner as if to say that they do not want to interfere with an objective outcome to this case. In other words, they are really working on watching their own you know what. I'm sure they know that other divisions of gov't are keeping a close eye on them based on what went down regarding the whole seizure (pressuring OTS etc etc etc)
Then, in court, they even wanted to make it clear that they are not on board with the POR or likely any other version that is being discussed as of yesterday's court hearing.
So, my take on this whole thing is that the FDIC will want JPM to go to WMI/Rosen and fork out whatever money is necessary to get the deal done. This means that the EC (all equity) and WMB will have to be part of the settlement. I am sure that the FDIC said to JPM that there can be no ongoing litigation as a result of settlement and that the deal must close this door for everyone leaving the FDIC free and clear of any wrongdoing.
So, JPM is in a position where they will have to give back things to the holding company that they did not deserve including 4b, NOLs, certain WMI subsidiaries, VISA shares, etc as well as make some additional payment for WMB value to take care of WMB bondholders. As to how much JPM gives up will be dependent on how strong the EC can make its case regarding valuation.
I expect we will ultimately see a POR filed by equity and a counter POR by JPM. Then, there will be some sort of middle ground whereby a deal will be done. All of this will likely take at least two to three more months. At this point it really comes down to EC getting its numbers together as far as what should be returned to holding company and what is a fair value of WMB discounted for the economic conditions at the time of seizure.
The Judge will not sign any POR until EC shows its numbers along with its own POR so that WMI can counter and that is when JPM will suddenly come out to play (with the FDIC firmly hidden behind them pushing them out that door!)