El petroleo tiene un pequeño handicap a la hora de ver gráficos y es que precisamente por las frecuentes situaciones de contango o backwardation en que se encuentran habitualmente sus futuros, según el vencimiento que estemos mirando puede variar un poco el gráfico.A modo de ejemplo, puede ser que el futuro con vencimiento de julio haya tocado un determinado soporte mientras que el vencimiento de agosto puede que se haya quedado a unos céntimos. Es muy habitual pequeñas variaciones de estas. Y luego están los CFDs, que pueden replicar a un determinado vencimiento o lo más habitual, ser una "cesta" de varios vencimientos distintos con lo que también te da un gráfico con ciertas diferencias.Esto con índices no pasa pues no hay nunca ni contango ni backwardation, pero en petroleo de forma más leve o más notoria, casi siempre.Aún así creo que vale la pena meterse en petroleo, al menos intentarlo, por su volatilidad y costumbre de ir primero a un lado y luego girase al otro como si nada, es el activo al que le encuentro más oportunidades de trading con diferencia.Lo complicado la gestión de los SL, si los ajustas te los vuelan todos.
Las actas de la FED indican preocupación por la falta de progreso en cuanto a la reducción de la inflación al objetivo del 2% ...https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/fed-minutes-may-2024-.html FEDERAL RESERVEFederal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflationPUBLISHED WED, MAY 22 20242:00 PM EDTUPDATED 2 MIN AGO
Jeff [email protected]@JEFFCOXCNBCCOMKEY POINTS“Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” the summary stated.The minutes also indicated that “various mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.”The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2024. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersFederal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions.Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease.The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and all of the indicators showed price increases running well ahead of that mark.“Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” the summary stated. “The recent monthly data had showed significant increases in components of both goods and services price inflation.”The minutes also showed “various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.”The FOMC voted unanimously at the meeting to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, a 23-year high where it has been since July 2023.“Participants assessed that maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting was supported by intermeeting data indicating continued solid economic growth,” the minutes said.Since then, there have been some incremental signs of progress on inflation, as the consumer price index for April showed inflation running at a 3.4% annual rate, slightly below the March level. Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at 3.6%, the lowest since April 2021.However, consumer surveys indicate increasing worries. For instance, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed the one-year outlook at 3.5%, the highest since November, while overall optimism slumped. A New York Fed survey showed similar results.Upside inflation risk?Fed officials at the meeting noted several upside risks to inflation, particularly from geopolitical events, and noted the pressure that inflation was having on consumers, particularly those on the lower end of the wage scale. Some participants said the early-year increase in inflation could have come from seasonal distortions, though others argued that the “broad-based” nature of the moves means they shouldn’t be “overly discounted.”Committee members also expressed worry that consumers were resorting to riskier forms of financing to make ends meet as inflation pressures persist.“Many participants noted signs that the finances of low- and moderate-in-come households were increasingly coming under pressure, which these participants saw as a downside risk to the outlook for consumption,” the minutes said. “They pointed to increased usage of credit cards and buy-now-pay-later services, as well as increased delinquency rates for some types of consumer loans.”Officials were largely optimistic about growth prospects though they expected some moderation this year. They also said they expect inflation ultimately to return to the 2% objective but grew uncertain over how long that would take, and how much impact high rates are having on the process.Immigration was mentioned on multiple occasions as a factor both helping spur the labor market and to sustain consumption levels.Market lowering rate-cut expectationsPublic remarks from central bankers since the meeting have taken on a cautionary tone.Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday said that while he does not expect the FOMC will have to raise rates, he warned that he will need to see “several months” of good data before voting to cut. Last week, Chair Jerome Powell expressed sentiments that weren’t quite as hawkish in tone, though he maintained that the Fed will “need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work” as inflation holds higher.Markets have continued to adjust their expectations for cuts this year. Futures pricing as of Wednesday afternoon indicated about a 60% chance of the first cut still coming in September, though the outlook for a second move in December receded to only a bit better than a 50-50 coin-flip chance. Earlier this year, markets had been pricing in at lease six quarter-percentage-point cuts.
Con la inflación que sufrimos y la que nos queda por sufrir por obra y gracia de los bancos centrales de todo el mundo, cash is trash. 1 millón de euros de ahora en doce años pueden equivaler a la mitad, así que en mi opinión hay que apuntar más alto. Y hay que ser responsable con el dinero, pero también darse caprichos y sobretodo no escatimar con la alimentación por cara que esté. Mens sana in corpore sano. No fumar, ejercicio, buena alimentación y tampoco pasarse de ahorrador, que de nada sirve ser el más rico del cementerio.
Es que los futuros del petroleo están en backwardation (los de vencimiento más próximo están más caros que los de vencimiento más lejano) y según el futuro que utilicen como referencia los CFDs de cada broker pueden estar a un precio u otro.En CFDs sobre índices no suele pasar esto porque sus futuros dan prácticamente siempre el mismo precio independientemente del vencimiento.
Nada, otra vez el Nasdaq a las puertas de nuevos máximos históricos. En este contexto de liquidez infinita propiciado por los bancos centrales de TODO el mundo, los cortos en índices son una causa perdida.
Cárpatos es otro falso trader como Ajram y tantos otros que venden cursos, másters, libros, páginas web o lo que sea.Me leí el León contra Gacelas que viene a ser una copia del libro de Alexander Elder, ambos igual de inútiles para el trading real.
Es una estafa al 100%, olvídate de los 250€ y ya no les des ni un euro más. Tómatelo como el precio de una lección que te han dado. El mundo de la inversión enseña a base de palos.Metatrader 4 y 5 son plataformas para operar en los mercados que pueden "enlazarse" con tu broker, pero no son brokers ellos mismos, así que no tienen tu dinero ni el de nadie.
Otra estafa más sacada a bolsa del señor orondo de FacePhi y sus amigotes igual que InterCity FC, Substrate AI y la propa FacePhi.Sinvergüenzas sin fronteras y la CNMV de cómplice (previo untamiento de unos cuantos de ahí claro está).
Lo único que te van a enseñar es como se pasan 2.500 euros de tu bolsillo a sus bolsillos.Es imposible que te puedan enseñar algo, 'vivir profesionalmente del trading', que ni ellos han podido conseguir. De lo contrario no venderían cursos o 'métodos de trading', sino que vivirían de sus inversiones.Pero bueno, es una lección que quizá tengas que vivir en carne propia. Al fin y al cabo, nadie aprende en cabeza ajena y el mundo de la inversión enseña a base de palos. Este puede ser uno más de ellos.
